Not this guy again!
Posted on 02/28/2007 6:15:01 PM PST by shrinkermd
Investors are breathing a sigh of relief as Wednesday's stock market rebound wiped away some of the pain inflicted by Tuesday's tumble. They would do well to stay very scared...
...The U.S. stock market, by far the world's largest, has been on a bull run for four years without a major pullback. While the S&P 500 is nowhere nearly as expensive as it was in the late 1990s, neither is it cheap at about 17.6 times the latest 12-months' earnings.
...The housing market, for one, is looking increasingly shaky. Defaults of subprime mortgages are already rising, and Wednesday's announcement of a 16.6% fall in new home sales in January represents the largest monthly drop in 13 years
...selling Chinese and other emerging market assets and converting them back into yen, which they'd borrowed at low interest rates. Demand for the Japanese currency would in turn put selling pressure on the dollar and U.S. assets
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
sorry for the repeats
Neil A. Weinberg
Senior Editor, Forbes Magazine
I was born and raised in Madison, Wisconsin. When I was 12 my family moved to Kingston, Jamaica where I attended high school and got the travel bug (I’ve spent 15 years overseas). After returning to university at the College of William & Mary in Virginia, I took a job teaching English in Tokyo. I wanted to be a writer and freelanced for local magazines.
After working and studying Japanese for three years I returned to the U.S. to get a graduate degree at the American Graduate School of International Management. While there concentrated on the Asian economy and edited the student newspaper, Das Tor. As editor I liked to stir up the pot. I took jabs at the quality of the school’s professors and the political correctness of the students. One group of students got so angry they circulated a petition to fire me. Turns out they couldn’t because there were no contingencies in the student charter to oust an editor.
Such rabble-rousing has been very useful here at Forbes, where I have written on penny stock and internet pyramid scamsters, bashed bad Japanese management and U.S. public employee unions. A story I did two years ago, Blood Money, focused on how hospitals recycle supposedly disposable instruments. It was copied by other publications and preceded an FDA crackdown.
My second stint in Japan started in 1989 as a finance reporter with Knight-Ridder Financial News. It was the peak of Japan’s bubble economy and I went freelance, writing for Institutional Investor, the Financial Times and the Japan Economic Journal. I also covered local billionaires for Forbes’ annual survey. I returned to New York to join Forbes full-time in 1992. After three years at the headquarters, I returned to Tokyo as Forbes bureau chief.
I returned to Forbes New York at the end of 1998 to cover technology. I have written several covers since. The first was on Japanese billionaire Masayoshi Son. Son was worth around $4 billion at the time. By the following February hiss net worth approached $70 billion and he was the world’s second richest citizen. My other covers have focused on John Malone, Goldman Sachs, the New York Stock Exchange, value investing, cell hell (cellular phones), and this month’s retirement piece.
I am the proud father of two young daughters. My wife Sonoko (a Dow-Jones reporter) and I love adventure travel and have been through much of Asia, including Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Indonesia, China, and Siberia, much of it by train. We are avid athletes.
Neil A. Weinberg
Work Experience
Forbes, 1992 – Present Senior Editor, New York: Reporting on technology and finance; have written several cover stories, three of which were nominated for 2001 National Magazine Awards. Recent TV appearances include CNN, CNBC and Fox News. Promoted to Senior Editor 7/00. Tokyo Bureau Chief (9/95 – 12/98): Wrote features on business in Asia/Pacific. Staff Writer (5/93 – 8/95): Edited Follow Through column. Reporter (11/92 – 5/93): Wrote features and fact-checked.
Reporter, Tokyo 1989 – 1992: Covered Japanese business and finance for Forbes, Financial Times and Institutional Investor. Edited finance pages and translated (Japanese to English) for The Nikkei Weekly.
Reporter, Miami, Florida 1987 – 1988: Edited stories on politics and terrorism for Risknet news service; reported for Associated Press, Reuters.
Writer, Tokyo 1982 – 1995: Covered Japanese economics and politics.
Education
1987: Master of International Management, American Graduate School of International Management, Glendale, Arizona. Honors student. Received Hearst Foundation Fellowship for academic and extracurricular achievement. Editor-in-chief of student newspaper, Das Tor.
1977 – 1981: BA, English Literature, College of William & Mary.
Personal
Born August, 1960. Married. Two daughters. Live in Maplewood, New Jersey.
Not this guy again!
If the Dow goes under 12,000 (not close) we're in for a bear market lasting 24-36 months minimum. Long term investors can stay long. Traders should move to cash or short.
Want to see it go under 12,000 fast? Have the next democratic president and congress repeal the 15% captial gains exclusion.
We can all take solace that Larry Kudlow is not pushing the prescient book "Dow 36,000" today.
I heard he had a bumper sticker on his car that read: "Nazdog 5901 or bust" back in March, 2000.
The old 1999 bumper sticker on the front read: "LTCM, save my butt, Alan - please."
ping
Well, they've been lending us gobs and gobs of money. We get option-ARM loans and buy McMansions. Then we cash out refi and buy more stuff at Wal-Mart. And so it goes. Until it doesn't anymore.
For later
>>>Why does the Chinese stock market care whether there has been a drop in new home sales in the US?
This might have something to do with it. They bought our notes. The notes have to be paid back with gold backed funds.
http://justwhatithink.com/blog/index.php?y=2006&m=10&d=5
Cede & Co.
c/o The Depository Trust Company
7 Hanover Square
New York, New York 10004
George Soros and Quantum Partners. Cede & Co. is under:
- SOROS FUND MANAGEMENT LLC. in Delaware
- Quantum Industrial Partners LDC in Cayman Islands
- QIH Management Investor, L.P. in Delaware
- QIH Management, Inc. in Delaware
- Stanley F. Druckenmiller
- Duquesne Capital Management, L.L.C. in Pennsylvania
Just an FYI at post 30
Despite the manipulators, the market will bull on.
I think a Bear is in the works no matter what. But you are right; if Obama or Hillary wins the election the markets will tank(probably the tail end of the Bear). If we move under 12,000 the bear is in no matter what; the forces of evil will drive the market down until the election to make the Repubs look their worst. Do not ever underestimate the wealthy Libs.
The only chance of a a reversal IMO is the election of a true conservative (Newt or Duncan) or God forbid an attack on the Homeland.
I think we can surmise why Neil Wineberg is not now, and likely never will be, FED Chairman.
To add fuel to the fire:
January hit an all time high for those buying via margin on the NYSE. Over 250 billion worth of equities bought on margin.
I just moved three times my annual salary into the stock market today.
I may be stupid, but I'm not scared.
Cede & Co is the general nominee for the Depository Trust Co, which is where brokerages and investment firms hold their securities. Saves shuffling paper, they hold all the certificates and just change the ownership on the computer.
Nothing sinister, I'd guess (and I've been out of the business for 20 years) that much of the stock and bond certificates issued are registered to Cede & Co.
Have you ever strolled through Home Depot and checked out the country of origin of the products sold there?
Very good observation. Those who do not study history are apt to repeat it. If the Stock Market and the Housing Market dry up can you imagine the results? The USA economy has virtualy thrown away it's manufacturing complex. We are a "Service Economy". If we move into a serious recession we are going to have a ton of folks out of work. The sheer volume will make the Depression look like a cake walk. We have no skilled labor unless you include the ability to talk on a cellphone. On top of that if China decides to sell all of those dollars they are hoarding, well, welcome to Germany pre-WWII.
Glooooom, despaaaaaair, and agony on me!
Deep, dark depression,
Excessive misery...
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