Colourful past threatens Giuliani's lead (dodged draft, marital weirdness)

The Daily Telegraph ^ | 16 February 2007 | Toby Harnden

[Spiff]

Colourful past threatens Giuliani's lead

The Daily Telegraph
By Toby Harnden in Washington
Last Updated: 2:04am GMT 16/02/2007

Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor, has become the clear frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination despite a personal life that his own staff once conceded opened him up to accusations of "weirdness".

A USA Today/Gallup poll gave Mr Giuliani a 16-point lead over his rival Senator John McCain and showed him trailing Hillary Clinton, the leading Democrat, by just a single percentage point.

But the extent of his task to persuade Americans he can lead them was underlined this week when a remarkable 450-page "vulnerability study", compiled by aides in 1993, emerged. His current advisers fear that his colourful past and his liberal social positions could scupper his candidacy.

The study listed all the former prosecutor's perceived weaknesses as part of a "tough and hard-hitting" assessment.

Mr Giuliani, who subsequently became a national hero as mayor of New York after the September 11 attacks, ordered all copies of the document to be destroyed. But it was obtained by a reporter working on a book about him and posted on the Smoking Gun website.

According to the document, chief among his problems as he sought re-election as mayor was that his "personal life raises questions about a "weirdness factor". This stemmed from a 14-year first marriage to his second cousin that was annulled by the Roman Catholic Church.

"When asked about his personal life, Giuliani gives a wide array of conflicting answers. All of this brings the soundness of his judgement into question - and the veracity of his answers."

Mr Giuliani, who has twice married subsequently, was also vulnerable to claims he avoided service in Vietnam by receiving "special treatment from a friendly federal judge" and later "hypocritically prosecuted draft dodgers".

In an interview with CNN's Larry King Live on Wednesday, Mr Giuliani conceded that there was lots of material with which the press and opponents could attack him. "The way I deal with that is, hey, I'm a human being," he said.

"You know, I made mistakes. I'm not perfect. I keep trying to learn from them. Sometimes I do, sometimes I don't. I keep working on that. I keep trying to learn from them. I'm a human being, much like, I think, everybody else."

Mr Giuliani confirmed that he was in favour of abortion rights and against gun control - litmus-test issues for many conservatives - but emphasised that he personally hated abortion.

He would also "select judges who try to interpret the Constitution rather than invent it" - a notable reassurance to conservatives who fear presidents who use judicial appointments to engage in what many see as liberal social engineering via the courts.

Whereas Democrats often reject a front runner during the party primaries, Republicans tend to coalesce around a leading candidate who they feel is electable by the broader populace. Mr Giuliani, 62, is vying to be that candidate in place of Mr McCain, 70, the early choice of the Republican establishment.

The document was the second to hand Mr Giuliani's White House rivals an arsenal of ammunition against him. Last month, a 140-page campaign battle plan setting out budgets, fundraising plans and details of possibly "insurmountable" problems with his candidacy was leaked to a New York tabloid.

[brazzaville]

Good afternoon.

Thank you very much. Lord knows I try. I wonder if my first wife and I would still be married if I had learned to take that approach a long time back.

Michael Frazier

[xzins]

I don't believe he'll get that far, but you have hit on what is a tremendous personal dilemma for me in this race to date.

I will support Duncan Hunter or some other true conservative until it becomes obvious that I have lost.

At that point, I must decide if it is better to make some type of symbolic vote or cast a vote that will be against someone worse than the Republican nominee.

I think it is better to slightly plug the gap in the wall through which the enemy would pour, than to join in a retreat. Sometimes a retreat is wise, but only if it provides the opportunity to regroup and reattack.

I think Hillary will be the democratic nominee, and I know from trusted personal contacts that she is a lesbian. Her beliefs are openly socialist. I'm not sure the nation as we know it could survive 8 years of her.

Giuliani for 4 would give us a chance to raise up a successful conservative.

[colorado tanker]

Like I said, I'm still looking. What does bother me about Rudy is that he's gone from pro-life to pro-abort and now back to saying he'll appoint pro-life judges. I do think he has some core Republican values like tough on crime and pro-defense, otherwise he wouldn't have been crazy enough to be a Republican in New York, but in other areas he doesn't seem to have convictions he'll stick with.

[George W. Bush]

Mayor Giuliani proved his worth in his actions when Al Queada attacked New York City. He is a real American.

I'm curious. Just what did he do? He had placed his emergency response center at Ground Zero, a previous and well-known target of the terrorists.

No one can ever tell us what he did to be such a hero on 9/11.

[xzins]

See #82

I cannot vote for McCain because he lied publically about the president when he visted our town during the last election.

That is one of many things, but it is one which really struck me about his nature in light of CFR, Keating, etc.

[KellyAdmirer]

DH remains largely unvetted, which represents a risk to his candiancy, not an advantage.

Well, the George Allen people could tell you that - if there were any left.

I would have thought by now that people would realize it's not the skeletons from your past that people know about that will do you in - it's the skeletons in your closet that come out at a time not of your own choosing that will doom you. President Bush almost found that out the hard way with the DUI. I think the release of all this damaging information on Rudy now is a brilliant move by his team, and yes, I think they wanted it this way. Get it all out now, let everyone see it and pontificate about it before the real campaign starts.

[xzins]

My comment was in isolation...perhaps you think I was suggesting that Rudy is electable.

Actually, I was suggesting that perhaps he is not.

[xzins]

it's the skeletons in your closet that come out at a time not of your own choosing that will doom you

That's sort of correct, but I think it really boils down to the ability to control the media or go over their heads.

George Allen did not have that kind of cash.

At the end of a presidential campaign, GW Bush did have the connections, cash and clout to explain his youthful alcoholism.

[abishai]

My apologies. There are many who think he is.

[xzins]

However, what if he does win the primaries?

Then what?

Our choices then are (a) vote for one of the 2 candidates who actually could win, or (b) some form of symbolic vote/non-vote.

[Jim Robinson]

Giuliani is not going to get the nomination. Way too many shortcomings. The battle has barely begun.

The Republican party stands for life and liberty first and foremost. Without life, there can be no liberty. Without liberty, there is only slavery, then death.

America was founded on the belief that all men were created equal by their Creator and endowed with certain unalienable rights, and that among these rights are the right to Life, Liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

Abortion is an abomination to God. The idea that such an abomination would be written into the US Constitution by our Christian Founding Fathers is a damnable lie! And a man who would promote such a lie as truth is the enemy of truth.

Social liberalism is liberalism. Liberalism begats socialism. Socialism is slavery. Slavery is death.

The day that the Republican party abandons the defense of life and liberty is the day it dies as a viable party.

The Democrat party stands for socialism, slavery and the culture of godless perversion and death. If the Republican party stands with the Democrat party on these issues, then it is dead.

Hillary is an evil beast, but you can't slay the evil beast by becoming evil yourself.

Reagan stood tall for life, liberty and human decency and won long lasting prosperity for America and freedom for millions of former slaves throughout the world.

Stand tall with Reagan for life and liberty and the evil beast will be slain!

[sitetest]

Dear xzins,

"Her beliefs are openly socialist. I'm not sure the nation as we know it could survive 8 years of her.

"Giuliani for 4 would give us a chance to raise up a successful conservative."

If Mrs. Clinton is elected, we could possibly defeat her in four years. And at the very least, her election would galvanize Republican opposition to her agenda. This is what led to the Republican Revolution in 1994 - the stiffening of Republican resolve, and the creation of an alternative agenda, as a response to the liberal, socialist Clinton regime.

However, if Mr. Giuliani is elected, we will not be able to get rid of him in four years, except to suffer defeat at the hands of the Dems in 2012. One cannot generally get rid of one's president during the nominating process, and then win the election. In fact, significant challenges to one's party's president during the nominating process often usher in the other major party's win.

But worse still, just as we've seen congressional Republicans roll over for Mr. Bush's big-spending, liberal programs, it's unlikely that congressional Republicans will be able to raise significant, organized, effective opposition across the board against Mr. Giuliani's many, varied, nearly limitless liberal predilections.

Four years of President Giuliani would be disastrous for the nation, and for Republicans as a conservative party. Eight years would likely formally destroy the party. I'd expect that by 2016, the Republican Party would be a rump party, as the Whigs were by the end of the 1850s.

"Raising up" conservative alternatives would be the least of the problems of the Republican Party. It would also be the least of issues for conservatives.


sitetest

[abishai]

I hope the Republicans don't back the Social Conservatives in a corner with Rudy's nomination. They think the SoCons will sheepishly hold their noses and vote for the "R", just to keep Hillary out of the White House. If this happens, I see some unfortunately sitting out, some voting the "R", and some going third party. It would irreparably split the Republican party for years.

[xzins]

I agree with almost all that you've written. Reagan did support abortion in the cases of rape, incest, and life of mother. I remember hearing him say it.

His supreme court justices are Scalia, Kennedy, and O'Conner.

[xzins]

If Rudy is the nominee there are only 2 choices:

Rudy or a symbolic vote/non-vote.

Schwarzeneggar is governor of Calif. for just that reason.

[Sir Francis Dashwood]

How could the bar for weirdness get any lower after the Clinton Administration?

Spend some time in New York...

[johnpannell]

Giuliani for 4 would give us a chance to raise up a successful conservative.

Are you proposing this hypothetical conservative would then defeat a sitting president in a primary battle? That's a bet I would NOT make.

We need to find a conservative leader now, not some RINO who are enemies annoint as "electable". A win by either a "Socialist Democrat" or "new-castrati RINO" in 2008 will be disasterous for the country.

[abishai]

Then the GOP will learn the hard way that it can't nominate a leftist and win the presidency.

GOP will stand for (once)-Great Obsolete Party.

[xzins]

Obviously, I disagree.

I think Rudy could be vulnerable after 4 years, and the primary system does allow for contenders to weigh in. Additionally, conservatives could determine his VP who would be the presumed front-runner in the ensuing election.

Rudy, a fiscal, law & order, anti-islamofascism republican would be better than Hillary.

[TAdams8591]

So Guilianni's also a flip-flopper. He went from being pro-life (the RIGHT side) to pro-choice (the WRONG side).

Interesting. And as the article states there is definitely a WEIRDNESS factor with Guilianni. I most assuredly agree. As I've said on this forum, he's a WEIRD guy.