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Posted on 02/13/2007 9:21:08 PM PST by neverdem
An old diplomatic joke from the 1930s runs as follows: "It must be true; the Quai d'Orsay denies it." The Quai d'Orsay was -- and is -- the French foreign ministry; so the joke may still be current. It would certainly apply to the diplomatic flap over the weekend speech by Russian President Vladimir Putin blaming the United States for a new arms race, for overstepping its political limits in almost all spheres, and for "an almost unrestrained hyper-use of force" in international relations.
So many diplomats -- in Germany, France and Russia itself -- have been declaring Putin's speech does not mark the beginning of a new Cold War that a neutral observer is tempted to wonder when the shooting starts.
Even as each power declares publicly that it accepts no new Cold War is afoot, it privately calculates the significance of Putin's attack. They all recognize that Putin is exploiting two new facts of international life: America's difficulties over Iraq and Iran, and Russia's rising economic power as the second-largest energy producer in a world of high oil prices.
Indeed, Putin went directly from the Munich security conference, where he had leveled his fusillade at Washington, to meet with the First and Third World energy producers, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, in the Gulf. One lesson everyone will draw, therefore, is that Russia intends to use energy as a bargaining chip in relations with former Soviet dependencies in Eastern Europe, Western Europe and the United States. How is each of these likely to react?
Eastern Europe: The former Soviet satellites were already anxious about Russia's energy policies. Last year the Kremlin ordered a temporary cutoff of gas supplies to Ukraine. It has unilaterally (and sharply) increased energy prices to the Baltic states. And it negotiated a Russo-German undersea gas pipeline that would enable Moscow to supply the lucrative German market while cutting out Poland and Ukraine. Poland's government has been so anxious about the implications of these policies that it has been seeking partners to build an oil pipeline that would go from Central Asia to Central Europe without passing through Russian territory.
Eastern Europeans have a second reason for anxiety. Putin's list of complaints against the United States had included NATO's discussions with Poland and the Czech Republic over its possible participation in a missile defense system. It wants a defense both against the missiles owned by a newly threatening Russia and against the likelihood of Iran obtaining (courtesy of Putin's assistance) nuclear missiles only minutes away from cities such as Prague and Warsaw.
All these considerations are pushing Eastern Europe in two directions: first, toward a closer relationship with America, and second, toward using its influence in Brussels to prevent the European Union establishing too close a relationship with Russia.
Western Europe: Germany had been slightly worried about these East European trends because close Russo-German economic cooperation is a main foundation of the country's post-Cold War foreign policy. Without Putin's speech, the Germans with Anglo-French help (on this occasion at least) might have gradually pulled Eastern Europe back into going along with a more Russophile approach. But the Putin speech both offended and frightened the Germans. It offended Chancellor Angela Merkel, Putin's hostess, by using Munich to directly contradict her new policy of establishing much warmer Euro-American relations.
Germany is above all a status-quo power that wants to stabilize the post-Cold War settlement of Europe. Putin's attack on NATO expansion, which is the keystone of that stability, suggested that he wanted to reverse some of the West's gains -- and that the Great Russian imperial mind-set is far from dead in Moscow.
Add to this German anxiety the suppressed anger in Britain that Russian ty forces were responsible for murdering at least one exiled dissident in London and that the Russian legal authorities refused to help in tracing the murderers.
The United States: All these trends dramatized by the Putin speech remove the mask of "strategic partnership" from a Russo-American relationship that has been unreliable and difficult from Washington's standpoint in recent years. After all, Putin's Russia has not only assisted adversaries of the United States to develop WMDs, it has also protected them at the U.N. Security Council.
The same trends also serve to confirm and strengthen the old Cold War relationships of Atlantic friendship and European-Russia coolness. If Putin had wanted to push the West Europeans into America's embrace, he would have made exactly the same speech. That may explain the relatively low-key responses to Putin from Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Sen. John McCain and White House spokesman Tony Snow.
All of them seemed quite content to let the Europeans express disquiet and nervousness about the (non-existent) new Cold War. They would simply remind them -- as Gates did a day later at the Seville meeting of NATO -- that if America and NATO were expected to protect Europe against dangers new and old, then help was a two-way trade. In particular, Europe should respond by helping NATO and America in Afghanistan.
As yet the Europeans are slow to respond effectively (European policies are still distorted by a self-destructive anti-Americanism left over from Iraq), but there has been greater realism of late in European governments. They quietly supported the Israeli push against Hezbollah last summer and were quietly disappointed when it failed. They are finally waking up to the fact they have enemies -- the same enemies as America, in fact.
Putin's speech reminded Europeans that his Russia is not an enemy but it is the friend of their enemies.
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"Putin's speech reminded Europeans that his Russia is not an enemy but it is the friend of their enemies."
And that is saying a lot.
I was going to say something negative about Putin, but I don't want to accidentally drink any Polonium tea.
Are you kidding me?
You're kidding yourself, if nobody else. Putin's hatred for America isn't America's fault. If he's so worried about Islamic terrorists, why is he doing so much business with Iran?
I notice that the Hammer & Sicle and the word "Soviet" are clearly evident on the banners Putin is standing between. What happened to the double eagle and the "Federation?"
Putin is just trying to help the Democrats out with their talking points. Russia and France are so deeply involved in trade with Iran, that they want to make sure that the world blames us for the Iranian nukes, instead of them. They don't want to take a chance on forged documents, so this time they just declared it.
It's all Bush's fault because he invaded Iraq and scared Ahmena..., whatever his name is.
99% of the time when a picture is taken, Putin stands in front of Tsarist eagle flags. It happened to be that a journalist showed up and snapped that picture. It also was some sort of celebration of the end of WWII, when the Red banner flew virtually all over Russia again for a day. Putin is rumored to have a vault of old Soviet stuff in the Kremlin out of view of the media (For good reason).
Do the Russians choose colors just to make life in Russia seem even more oppressive than it is?
Putin gave assistance to Saddam Hussein and gives support to the Iranian Mullahs. Putin is NOT a trustworthy ally on the War on Terror. (except Queida's, and even China and Iran have problems with them and given us intel about them)
Putin probably enjoyed every moment of being able to be a real Commie again, standing in front of those flags, even for only a couple of hours. Putin probably can't wait until the Red banner flies over the Kremlin again.
The fact that we did not (as a government) stand behind Russia when they battled (battle) Chechen terrorists, is really water under the bridge.
The most important thing to remember is that people like Putin do not ask questions, or in this case, make statements, to which they do not already know the answer.
So here's the questions..
Why is Putin attempting to start a cold war with the US?
Will it turn into a hot war, using proxies?
Do we have the right proxies to win, once again?
Putin craves the old Soviet Union. He's not alone, insomuch as such an entity maintains balance. In Putin's mind, I'm sure he thinks he's doing the planet a favor by reinvigorting the competition. He's often lamented the lack of a counterbalance to the U.S.
The next question is..
Does he know what he's doing, in his attempt to play Islamofacists against the U.S.?
Putin's Kremlin should be viewed by the White House as a very dangerous two faced enemy, presently positioning Russia with Opec communist and jihadist ruled régimes in order to hold the West hostage to sudden energy blackmail, which is economic terrorism. The Kremlin boss has had a lot of practice in energy blackmail with former Soviet captive nations.
Before Putin attempted every tick in the book to prevent the Coalition from overthrown his former oil pal Saddam. What's Mr KGB going to do when we Saddamitize Tehran's Islamic butchers? While America is dealing with Iran, is Putin going to airlift Russian troops to bail out the Assad klan by fighting directly with Israeli forces in the upcoming long over due payback for Assad arming & training Hezballah killers to murder Israelis & Christian Lebanese?
Putin is making the rounds in the Sunni Middle-East since maybe he fathoms his Shi'ite proxies are going down for the count.
If Putin wants a hot war instead of just his continuing Cold War verbal broadsides at US - let him bring it on!
2-14-2007: Another one of Putin verbal attacks on America.
"I have an impression that some partners are promoting themselves and have started using the nonexistent Russian threat to get more money from the U.S. Congress for military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the expensive missile defense project," Putin said during his visit to Jordan.
Look deeper into Putin's eyes... you'll see it's all Bush's fault.
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