Posted on 02/13/2007 6:45:57 PM PST by B Knotts
To echo the famous Negro League pitcher Satchel Paige: “Don’t look back, Newt Gingrich might be gaining on you.” Newt, consigned by many observers to Elizabeth Dole or Dan Quayle status in this GOP nominating process, appears to be moving up into contention, overtaking former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and battling to be the conservative alternative to either former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani or Arizona Sen. John McCain.
To grasp what’s happening, don’t think of states like New Hampshire or Iowa or worry whether it’s too early or too late. The key to following the Republican presidential nominating process this year is to recognize its essential similarity to the tennis’s U.S. Open at Forest Hills. There are quarter-finals, semi-finals, and finals.
In the quarter-finals, the center and the right each sort out the nominees to choose their candidate. On center court, Giuliani seems to be gaining a decisive lead over McCain’s impoverished presidential campaign.
But on the right-hand court, unnoticed by most pundits, Gingrich seems to be building a lead over Romney and a host of conservative wannabes. The ultimate winner of the Giuliani/McCain quarter-final will face the winner of the Gingrich/Romney match-up in the semi-finals.
As McCain drops in the polls — he’s down to 22 percent while Rudy is up at 34 percent in the latest Fox News poll — some conservatives seem eager for a “real Republican” to challenge for the nomination. Their first choice, former Virginia Sen. George Allen, lies a-moldering in the grave and his runner-up, former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, has gone home to Tennessee.
Most observers assumed that Romney would fill the void. But he doesn’t seem to have been able to do so. It may be a racist refusal to vote for a Mormon or, more charitably, Romney’s flip-flop-flip from pro-life to pro-choice to pro-life, or it may have been his inconsistency on gay issues, but Mitt seems to be going the way of his father — out of contention. The Fox News poll, which recorded a surge to up to 8 percent of the GOP vote in its Dec. 5-6 tally, now has Romney dropping back to only 3 percent of the vote.
Enter Newt. Hungry for new ideas and desperate after losing Congress, Republican voters seem to be rallying to the only real genius in the race — the former Speaker. The statute of limitations seems to have expired on his personal scandals and Gingrich is striking a responsive chord among conservatives.
Fox News’s Jan. 30-31 survey had Newt leaving Romney way behind and challenging McCain for second place. The former Speaker’s vote share was 15 percent, giving him third place in the current standings.
Episodically, I just addressed a 450-person Lincoln Day dinner of the Lane County Republican Party in Eugene, Ore. A show of hands brought these results: Giuliani, 50 percent; Gingrich, 30 percent; McCain, 6 percent; Romney, 4 percent. A few days before, a speech to an Orlando investors group produced similar results.
But, as the slogan of the New York State Lottery goes: “You can’t win if you don’t play.” Newt’s current posture of waiting until the fall of 2007 to see how the process sorts itself out won’t work. The process abhors a vacuum. If Gingrich doesn’t move out to respond to the affection of the GOP base, one of the minor-leaguers — Huckabee, Brownback, Gilmore, Thompson, Hunter or Tancredo — will.
The irony of the GOP field at the moment is that while most Republicans are conservatives, the two frontrunners — Rudy and McCain — are moderates. And this isn’t Nelson Rockefeller’s Republican Party anymore! Gingrich is filling a real political need and if he moves out smartly and files his paperwork, takes his announcement bows, and journeys to Iowa and New Hampshire as a candidate, he might well be a contender.
And, yes, Newt might be a "lightning rod," but if he's running against Hillary, it's a wash.
Heck...I've got near enough people on this ping list now for Newt to win one of the smaller states! :-)
List me too.
OK...you're added!
1. On his 3rd wife, who is a former staffer. 2. Left other wife when she was sick 3. Investigated for ethics violations in house and eventually paid a fine to settle. 4. Resigned at height of Clinont impeachment 5. Book deal.
Dick Morris notwithstanding, but Condi was not going to run for POTUS.
However, my dream ticket is Newt/Condi. I think she could be persuaded to get on VP ticket after the nastiness of primaries is over with, and would bring more excitement, reason, calm to campaign and likely a few states into play.
Two bright historians should beat two dim lawyers easily, and knowing the lessons of history they'll serve the country well.
No, he's not another Reagan, but he is Churchillian, and about the only true Reaganite with name ID in the current GOP bunch.
And, unlike "some" candidates who shall remain unnamed in this post, he doesn't take Reagan's name in vain.
Newt gave a speech recently about 2008 and conservative principles. If you didn't hear or see this speech, check it out here. If every American watched any 10 minutes of this great speech, Newt would win in a landslide.
http://www.newt.org/multimedia/default.asp?mi=394
Also be sure to visit http://www.DraftNewt.org
I would ask for a suggestion as to an appropriate "Adult Beverage" to compliment such an event, which I SO want to see, but I am afraid the thread would go as long as the RYMB thread a while back!
A better question in my mind is, if you have to vote for a man whop has had marital issues who do you like better... Rudy or Newt?
In a choice like that Rudy doesn't look nearly as strong. Newt will be as tough on foreign policy, and better on social issues and the role of government. Newt is a conservative, and Rudy is a New York city Liberal with an R next to his name.
It's going to be a lot close than you think.
Except that Morris plays the same game with himself. Give him time and he'll write another column invalidating this one.
In fact, this column invalidates earlier columns.
OK...you're added!
It just means that when there is an article posted about Newt that I will post a reply to everyone on the list, and you will see a "New Posts to You" on the main forum page. Then, when you go into your "New Posts to You" page, you'll see the "ping" and if you click on the title of the article above it, you can read it.
You're right, I'm not sure about Newt's 'wait until September and we'll see' strategy, but he's a lot smarter than I am and who knows what he has up his sleeve. I'd love to cast a vote for him.
I think Newt's strategy will work just fine. Nothing is even voted on until the Jan 22 New Hampshire Primary. Newt could announce in September, raise money quickly, build an organization and be ready for Jan 22. You don't need to look any further than 1994 and the organization Newt built quickly to win all the House races. He can do this, we just have to wait...and be ready when he announces.
You might point out that Newt's book deal was juxtaposed against the book deal that Newt used to oust his predecessor Speaker Jim Wright.
The only real baggage that Newt carries is that he's a lousy husband. Or at least he was once a lousy husband. On the other hand, Rudy and McCain are spendid examples of matrimonial fidelity.
Seems like March Madness has arrived a couple of weeks early for Morris.
The sad reality is that Newt's negatives are high among general voters, but Rudy has high positives.
"Racist"? Romney? He be a white boy. More evidence that use of the "R" word is a morally empty exercise in political thuggery.
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