Posted on 02/13/2007 6:45:57 PM PST by B Knotts
To echo the famous Negro League pitcher Satchel Paige: “Don’t look back, Newt Gingrich might be gaining on you.” Newt, consigned by many observers to Elizabeth Dole or Dan Quayle status in this GOP nominating process, appears to be moving up into contention, overtaking former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and battling to be the conservative alternative to either former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani or Arizona Sen. John McCain.
To grasp what’s happening, don’t think of states like New Hampshire or Iowa or worry whether it’s too early or too late. The key to following the Republican presidential nominating process this year is to recognize its essential similarity to the tennis’s U.S. Open at Forest Hills. There are quarter-finals, semi-finals, and finals.
In the quarter-finals, the center and the right each sort out the nominees to choose their candidate. On center court, Giuliani seems to be gaining a decisive lead over McCain’s impoverished presidential campaign.
But on the right-hand court, unnoticed by most pundits, Gingrich seems to be building a lead over Romney and a host of conservative wannabes. The ultimate winner of the Giuliani/McCain quarter-final will face the winner of the Gingrich/Romney match-up in the semi-finals.
As McCain drops in the polls — he’s down to 22 percent while Rudy is up at 34 percent in the latest Fox News poll — some conservatives seem eager for a “real Republican” to challenge for the nomination. Their first choice, former Virginia Sen. George Allen, lies a-moldering in the grave and his runner-up, former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, has gone home to Tennessee.
Most observers assumed that Romney would fill the void. But he doesn’t seem to have been able to do so. It may be a racist refusal to vote for a Mormon or, more charitably, Romney’s flip-flop-flip from pro-life to pro-choice to pro-life, or it may have been his inconsistency on gay issues, but Mitt seems to be going the way of his father — out of contention. The Fox News poll, which recorded a surge to up to 8 percent of the GOP vote in its Dec. 5-6 tally, now has Romney dropping back to only 3 percent of the vote.
Enter Newt. Hungry for new ideas and desperate after losing Congress, Republican voters seem to be rallying to the only real genius in the race — the former Speaker. The statute of limitations seems to have expired on his personal scandals and Gingrich is striking a responsive chord among conservatives.
Fox News’s Jan. 30-31 survey had Newt leaving Romney way behind and challenging McCain for second place. The former Speaker’s vote share was 15 percent, giving him third place in the current standings.
Episodically, I just addressed a 450-person Lincoln Day dinner of the Lane County Republican Party in Eugene, Ore. A show of hands brought these results: Giuliani, 50 percent; Gingrich, 30 percent; McCain, 6 percent; Romney, 4 percent. A few days before, a speech to an Orlando investors group produced similar results.
But, as the slogan of the New York State Lottery goes: “You can’t win if you don’t play.” Newt’s current posture of waiting until the fall of 2007 to see how the process sorts itself out won’t work. The process abhors a vacuum. If Gingrich doesn’t move out to respond to the affection of the GOP base, one of the minor-leaguers — Huckabee, Brownback, Gilmore, Thompson, Hunter or Tancredo — will.
The irony of the GOP field at the moment is that while most Republicans are conservatives, the two frontrunners — Rudy and McCain — are moderates. And this isn’t Nelson Rockefeller’s Republican Party anymore! Gingrich is filling a real political need and if he moves out smartly and files his paperwork, takes his announcement bows, and journeys to Iowa and New Hampshire as a candidate, he might well be a contender.
Newt bump
Hunh? Does Dick know that all non-Mormons are Laminates? ;-)
That was a surprising bit of prognasticating. Wish I could have met him at the bar and bet him $100 on that prediction!
Even he makes fun of his prediction percentage.
"Gingrich v Clinton in the finals"
I hope you are right. I would prefer Newt over any of the other choices. He is brilliant and a n excellent speaker. He would nail the Dem candidate on every turn!
I really wish Newt would prove to be a viable candidate. I fear his baggage is just too much. If it weren't for that, he'd be my first choice.
His tennis tournement analogy probably isn't a good one.
One more thing:
Newt speaks with intellectually strong conviction from deep within his soul. When he speaks you can tell he's not trying to please some silly camera pointed in his face. He speaks from his gut and confidence shows through.
Newt is who he is. I'd feel like I'm voting for someone who is real, not a fake testing the winds of public opinion.
I love Newt. He's maybe the smartest guy that will never be President. It really is too bad, but he doesn't have a single slim chance on God's Green Earth.
Newt possesses an exceptional grasp of world history (re: political and sociological history), which no other POTUS candidate seems to have currently.
More than just spouting mere facts about history, Newt has the ability to project the lessons learned in world history into the present tense, to illustrate how certain socio/political goals either benefitted or ruined civilizations in the past, and how they might apply or not apply to the the present.
Newt is an ideas man. He is exuberant in his ideas and always looks to the positive regarding the future.
Dare I say it? Newt might be another Reagan!
Bump for Newt!
Exactly what is Newts "baggage"?
We all make mistakes in our life. I would vote for him in a heartbeat!
I'd definitely vote for Newt.
If he'd make a serious effort I would likely send him some money. His closets better be cleared out. Not only will the opposition dig, but I don't want his Presidency wasted by endlessly being on the defensive. He's best on the offensive.
Exactly what is Newts "baggage"?
He's on his third marriage. I believe he's been married to his current wife since 1999 and I think she was his staffer or intern. I'm not happy about Newt's marital issues either but let's face it folks, there's more to being president than having been married to the same woman forever.
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