Posted on 02/13/2007 6:45:57 PM PST by B Knotts
To echo the famous Negro League pitcher Satchel Paige: “Don’t look back, Newt Gingrich might be gaining on you.” Newt, consigned by many observers to Elizabeth Dole or Dan Quayle status in this GOP nominating process, appears to be moving up into contention, overtaking former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and battling to be the conservative alternative to either former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani or Arizona Sen. John McCain.
To grasp what’s happening, don’t think of states like New Hampshire or Iowa or worry whether it’s too early or too late. The key to following the Republican presidential nominating process this year is to recognize its essential similarity to the tennis’s U.S. Open at Forest Hills. There are quarter-finals, semi-finals, and finals.
In the quarter-finals, the center and the right each sort out the nominees to choose their candidate. On center court, Giuliani seems to be gaining a decisive lead over McCain’s impoverished presidential campaign.
But on the right-hand court, unnoticed by most pundits, Gingrich seems to be building a lead over Romney and a host of conservative wannabes. The ultimate winner of the Giuliani/McCain quarter-final will face the winner of the Gingrich/Romney match-up in the semi-finals.
As McCain drops in the polls — he’s down to 22 percent while Rudy is up at 34 percent in the latest Fox News poll — some conservatives seem eager for a “real Republican” to challenge for the nomination. Their first choice, former Virginia Sen. George Allen, lies a-moldering in the grave and his runner-up, former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, has gone home to Tennessee.
Most observers assumed that Romney would fill the void. But he doesn’t seem to have been able to do so. It may be a racist refusal to vote for a Mormon or, more charitably, Romney’s flip-flop-flip from pro-life to pro-choice to pro-life, or it may have been his inconsistency on gay issues, but Mitt seems to be going the way of his father — out of contention. The Fox News poll, which recorded a surge to up to 8 percent of the GOP vote in its Dec. 5-6 tally, now has Romney dropping back to only 3 percent of the vote.
Enter Newt. Hungry for new ideas and desperate after losing Congress, Republican voters seem to be rallying to the only real genius in the race — the former Speaker. The statute of limitations seems to have expired on his personal scandals and Gingrich is striking a responsive chord among conservatives.
Fox News’s Jan. 30-31 survey had Newt leaving Romney way behind and challenging McCain for second place. The former Speaker’s vote share was 15 percent, giving him third place in the current standings.
Episodically, I just addressed a 450-person Lincoln Day dinner of the Lane County Republican Party in Eugene, Ore. A show of hands brought these results: Giuliani, 50 percent; Gingrich, 30 percent; McCain, 6 percent; Romney, 4 percent. A few days before, a speech to an Orlando investors group produced similar results.
But, as the slogan of the New York State Lottery goes: “You can’t win if you don’t play.” Newt’s current posture of waiting until the fall of 2007 to see how the process sorts itself out won’t work. The process abhors a vacuum. If Gingrich doesn’t move out to respond to the affection of the GOP base, one of the minor-leaguers — Huckabee, Brownback, Gilmore, Thompson, Hunter or Tancredo — will.
The irony of the GOP field at the moment is that while most Republicans are conservatives, the two frontrunners — Rudy and McCain — are moderates. And this isn’t Nelson Rockefeller’s Republican Party anymore! Gingrich is filling a real political need and if he moves out smartly and files his paperwork, takes his announcement bows, and journeys to Iowa and New Hampshire as a candidate, he might well be a contender.
Newt is the ONLY UNIFYING figure in conservative politics..
Some don't like him but will vote for him anyway, especially if Hillary runs..
NO OTHER prospective candidate can say that..
ALL others have fragmenting overtones..
The problem is most republicans, I think, are RINOs of different types..
Thats bad news..
I think Newt is great!
The proof is in how much the MSM hates him.
If you leave his personal life aside can anybody name a characteristic or a cause that is not true, blue, Republican Conservative?
(Note: Republicans were "Blue" until MSM marketing recognized voters identified "Blue" more positively.)
No Democrat will debate Newt one on one, anywhere, for anything!
Go Newt, go!
Demhole? LMAO, Now thats funny right there,I dont care who you are. Thanks and Newt is Our guy with Hunter.
That is just wrong in so many ways....and funny as hell.
I am a conservative Republican and a Christian. Baggage or no baggage, put me down for Newt. I believe he has vision and is capable of rallying people behind him. Newt would espouse the same line throughout the entire political process. I am so tired of all the gamemanship we have to endure during the presidential season. Newt would be straight, no games.
He is Bill Clinton under the skin.
The hissy-fit over the Air Force One ride.
The callousness of his serving papers to a wife in the hospital for cancer.
The going for the trophy wife who doesn't even qualify.
One thing I'll say for Rudy...he really chose right the last time. Judith is loyal and loving!!
Amen! I pray for our country several times a day and I'm convinced if Newt is indeed the man for the hour he will be on the ticket regardless of what the pundits say.
He's my man right now, but I expect him to work to keep my confidence. All I'm thinking about right now is just him getting into the race. Then we'll see how it goes.
I am extremely fired up at the prospect of Newt Gingrich running for president. I have been following him closely since reading his "Winning the Future" book, and the guy is brilliant. I've never heard a politician with such an upbeat, positive, visionary agenda for transforming this country as Newt. Just flat-out inspiring, regardless of your party or background (well..... aside from the extreme left). If he runs, there is no possible way he loses. He is *exactly* what true conservatives are looking for, and he will attract many Democrats as well. Forget his "baggage".... his positives by far outweigh his negatives.
For those of you dismissing Newt..... you owe it to yourselves to see WHY he is polling so high, while never announcing he is even running. Look at his "American Solutions" site.
http://www.americansolutions.com/
....and sign up for his weekly newsletter. The link is somewhere on his homepage. There is a good reason there is such a buzz about the posibility of him running, IMO. Go Newt!!
I agree....... Hannity *says* he is a "Conservative first, a Republican second". Yet, lately he is really going out of his way to try to get his audience to accept Guiliani. No true conservative can compare Guiliani and Newt side by side, and conclude Rudy is who we want as president. No way. Hannity needs to wake up.
I will take his "baggage" over rino rudy's baggage any day.At the end of the day its conservative versus non conservative and Newt gets my vote hands down.
Well, some of us are trying to remedy that.
I believe I'm not the only one that perceives a Thomas Eagleton Factor in McCain.
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