Posted on 02/02/2007 4:47:11 PM PST by PhiKapMom
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
New York, Feb 2 -
To:
Team Rudy
From:
Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:
February 2, 2007
Re:
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.
Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.
According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”
In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.
The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.
Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:
|
State |
Mayor Giuliani |
Closest Competitor |
Source |
| California | 33% | 19% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 11-17 |
| Florida | 30% | 16% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 4-9 |
| Illinois | 33% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-14 |
| Michigan | 34% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 4-7 |
| Nevada | 31% | 25% (McCain) | ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06 |
| New Jersey | 39% | 21% (McCain) | Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22 |
| North Carolina | 34% | 26% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-15 |
| Ohio | 30% | 22% (McCain) | Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28 |
| Pennsylvania | 35% | 25% (McCain) | ARG Jan. 4-8 |
| Texas | 28% | 26% (McCain) | Baselice Jan. 17-21 |
Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.
Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.
Get them to get behind Tony
And HELL NO in the General Election if, God forbid, he makes it that far.
We need someone who thinks that our Constitution, our borders and our RIGHTS are worth preserving. Maybe Duncan Hunter, maybe Ron Paul, maybe Tom Tencredo. But McGiuliRomney? A resounding HELL NO. And it would be nice, PKM, if you and your ilk would STOP selling this nation out for that magical (R) win at all costs talisman. It's getting impossible to distinguish the (r) from the (d) these days and YOU are not helping anyone out by promoting trash over country and values.
I would have to say that in order to be a viable candidate for the highest office in the land, one should at the very least support such planks as supporting the Constitution and Bill of Rights and not letting preborn babies be murdered. That would be a good start, wouldn't you say? Or don't you judge a party on its platform any more? If THAT's the case, then why are so many of you holding (l)ibertarians to the LP platform? You don't get to have it both ways. It's either/or.
Where is Rudy on illegal immigration?
See Post 50. That will explain everything.
For securing the border first and then figuring out who's in the country illegally and why they are here.
That is lot better than what we have now : )
Your oft-cited post 50 does NOT explain why someone should support a candidate who does not even give LIPSERVICE to his party's platform. Nor does it offer any good reason to continually reward bad behavior in a politician or a political party. Because what is rewarded or subsidized is what you ALWAYS and without fail GET MORE OF. Rewarding a politician for trashing the Constitution (even if he does it a skosh less than his opponent) means that EVERY politician is going to be trashing the Constitution since no one will hold him accountable for doing so. Is THAT what you want?
If you want to surrender YOUR rights to the government, go right on ahead. If you try to surrender MY rights, well, you and I are likely to have more than just words about it. And by trying to get McGuiliRomney nominated above someone who HONORS the Constitution and its limits on governmental authority, you are making lots of headway in trying to give MY rights away. I take that rather personally.
Rudy's not going to try to take your rights are mine. He agrees with the majority of the party platform, all but the social issues.
Rudy is a gun-grabber. That's all I need to know. I will NEVER vote for a politician who has ever stated that he wants to disarm me. If he does not want to trust me with a firearm to protect me and mine, I dare not trust him with my life or my family's lives. It comes down to being just that simple. Say whatever you want to, but unless he comes out and publicly apologises for his past antics AND calls for (and means it) total repeal of every victim disarmament "law" in the country and continues to do so right up until the election and after, he will never see my vote nor, likely, any vote from the millions of other gun-owners (the "gun culture") in this country. We won't vote for the other party's gun grabbers, so we'd likely sit on our hands.
I'm sure Rudy will say whats best for NYC is whats best for America's heartland. I'm not really that scared that he will try to take guns. The Democrats aren't trying to now that they have control of Congress. Nobody has since the gun issue cost Al Gore the election in 2000. I am however scared of Hillary and I think Rudy is the only one that can stop here.
Where is the proof of that other than a talking point? Yes, it's not the government's job to regulate what people do in their bedrooms, but it sure is to regulate marriage. Right or wrong, that's a fact. So it's the government's job to regulate gay marriage as well. Whether that means permitting or forbiding gay marraige is up to us, the individual states, or it should be. Of course it isn't, since Roe v Wade, that has had a lot of impact on state's rights, not just abortion. So that's where that war will eventually be won or lost, at first, the federal level. This is why we need someone who clearly is against even the idea of homosexuality, not someone who's been pictured in drag.
As far as abortion goes, we have a pro-life President now but we are still having abortions. No president has the power to stop abortion. Rudy has already said he supports strict constructionist judges like John Roberts. He constantly praised the President for appointing Roberts and Alito. He said Roberts is his ideal justice. Assuming Rudy gets elected President and appoints Roberts-like justices then maybe Roe v. Wade will get overturned. But even if it does get overturned I hope you're not naive enough to think that would stop all abortions. The abortion issue would then revert back to the states and do you really think California would outlaw abortions? Being pragmatic in our thinking we all know we can't completely stop abortions. Therefore voting solely on this issue very unpragmatic. I hate abortions too but I realize that regardless of how many pro-life presidents we elect, its just not going to stop.
Basically what you're saying here is that "since we can't stop all abortions, why try to stop some?" That's a defeatist attitude, demonstratively weak by the following analogy, "Since we can't stop all murders, why try to stop murder?"
Even beyond that, let's look at the facts:
1. Rudy is pro-choice. Sure, he may have supported the recent nominations by Bush, but do you honestly believe that was for "constitutional reasons", and not for political points? The man is pro-choice! He's not going to nominate anyone who isn't pro choice. Roberts and Alito are pro-life, and no matter what the president said about the reason for his nomination of those two, you or anyone cannot possibly tell me that their pro-life convictions didn't come into play as PART of the reason they were chosen. The reverse would clearly apply to Rudy: He would never nominate anyone pro-life, it just wouldn't happen, "strict constitutionalist" aside.
2. And let's talk about his "strict constitutionalist" mentality for a minute. The man is a gun grabber, no pro-Rudy person on this thread can possibly deny that. Where is THAT in the "strict constitutionalist" mentality?
3. Back to the discussion about abortion though: Sure, if Roe v Wade is overturned, then the issue goes back to the states, but again, to say that simply because some highly liberal states like CA would continue offering abortions, this means that the entire fight against abortion is worthless, is defeatest! There are plenty MORE states that would enact laws outlawing abortion, in fact, some have laws on the books right now that will immediately go into effect if the issue is thrown back to the states. Quit being defeatest, if you really do oppose abortion!
All of this said, I would of course vote for him over any other Democrat in the general election. But that doesn't mean that, right NOW, we have to simply shut up and take what the "inside the beltway" GOPers want us to take! The time is now to get a REAL conservative on the ticket, and quit being the party of comprimise!
I just don't think a "real conservative" can win this time around. I feel Rudy and maybe McCain are the only Republicans that can win in 2008. I'm willing to forgo the social issues, issues where the President has the least influence, to keep Hillary out and put in a strong leader that will continue the WOT. I'm looking at the big picture. Sometimes life, and especially politics, is a compromise and if you don't compromise you get nothing. Right now, I'll take 80% because I feel 2008 you either take 80% or get nothing(Hillary).
Thanks for the link on here! Much appreciated!
Hunter definitely is no Hagel. The latter is a BUM.
As you know I have expressed only my admiration for Hunter only my doubts about his being able to win the nomination stops me from supporting him and I could wind up voting for him in the Illinois primary should certain circumstances prevail.
Comparing him to Hagel is disgraceful. Brownback not so much so though I do not appreciate some of his latest statements.
NO candidate tops Hunter wrt National Security issues and anyone claiming that is a flat out LIAR.
And I notice the poster never came back to defend his statement or offer proof.
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