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Is Rudy Likely to Be a Favorite or a Flop?
Real Clear Politics ^ | January 16 2007 | Stuart Rothenberg

Posted on 01/16/2007 8:21:49 AM PST by Reagan Man

Today's deepest division is between those political observers who believe that Rudy Giuliani is a credible contender for the Republican presidential nomination and those who think that his chances are no better than those of California Rep. Duncan Hunter.

~snip~

Giuliani's strong showing in GOP polling reflects his celebrity status and the reputation he earned after the terrorist attacks. But if and when he becomes a candidate, that will change. He will be evaluated on the basis of different things, including his past and current positions and behavior, and he'll be attacked by critics and opponents. A Giuliani nomination would also generate a conservative third-party candidate in the general election and tear the GOP apart, thereby undercutting Giuliani's electability argument.

So, the former mayor might make a terrific general election candidate, but I don't see how he can get there as a Republican.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: electionpresident; elections; giuliani; rmthread
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To: Ethrane

Dear Ethrane,

I won't stay home if Rudy is nominated. I'll go third party.

I don't believe there is more than one chance in a thousand that Mr. Giuliani would select another Roberts or Alito for the Court. He'd have a big fight if he tried, and would have to expend a lot of political capital to try to win confirmation for such nominations.

However, since, in Mr. Giuliani's view, someone like Mrs. Ginsburg is also a fine candidate, why wouldn't he just nominate another Ginsburg, and avoid the fight altogether?

Remember, Mr. Giuliani has PRAISED the appointment of Mrs. Ginsburg. For him to nominate another person like her would not be against his principles. Why would he pick a fight where his own principles aren't involved?


sitetest


61 posted on 01/16/2007 10:00:10 AM PST by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
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To: Dog Gone
I think conservatives would have a bigger problem with Newt's trustworthiness than with his personal life.

Some of us still remember his 2005 road show with Hillary Clinton in support of her stupid health care initiatives.

62 posted on 01/16/2007 10:01:52 AM PST by Alberta's Child (Can money pay for all the days I lived awake but half asleep?)
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To: Bob J
>>>>>By doing what all prez candidates do...modify his positions.

Modify! LOL Come on. Giuliani is no match for Mitt the chameleon. Romney is the true flip-flopper in this campaign. If Rudy came out and started to change his lifelong liberal positions on guns, abortion, homos, illegals and big government, folks FLUSHHHHHHHHHHH his campaign down the toilet in a NY minute.

63 posted on 01/16/2007 10:02:00 AM PST by Reagan Man (Conservatives don't vote for liberals!)
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To: Ethrane
Rudy is not in my top choices either...but I'm responding to the posters that insist they'll stay at home rather than vote for Rudy IF he is the nominee.

Millions, who are not FReepers, will never read your post. They'll stay home no matter what we do here. Some people will never vote for liberalism. They don't believe in it.

64 posted on 01/16/2007 10:04:54 AM PST by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal.")
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To: Dreagon
Why would any social conservative vote for Giuliani? They could sit at home and get the same thing with a democrat winning.

Why would any fiscal conservative vote for him. NYC is a giant welfare sink that money pours into. He did nothing to change this. Other than his good handling of 9/11 those who seem to most revere him lived through the out of control Dinkens era when crime was rampant in NYC.

Most of America isn't suffering through a crime crisis, because they have not adopted the two pillars of NYC policy: massive welfare for the "disadvantaged" and victim disarmament (gun control).

Thus Rudy's signature issue is meaningless to most people in the USA.

I predict the fastest crash and burn since Dick Army ran for the nomination a few cycles back.

65 posted on 01/16/2007 10:06:18 AM PST by Jack Black
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To: Alberta's Child
>>>>Some of us still remember his 2005 road show with Hillary Clinton in support of her stupid health care initiatives.

That's a red herring.

Here's the facts. Newt and Hillary joined forces on two issues that they found some common ground on. One issue has to do with changing the current system that handles private medical records of American's, from a cumbersome, unsafe paper file system, to a more secure electronic record keeping system. Newt and HRC also were members of a bipartisan committee to improve America's national security.

BFD!

66 posted on 01/16/2007 10:06:43 AM PST by Reagan Man (Conservatives don't vote for liberals!)
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To: All
Just adding a log to this cozy fire over here... :)

As you can see by the Pic, someone asked for our thoughts on our current GOP candidates... Thes are MY Takes... what about yours?


67 posted on 01/16/2007 10:06:57 AM PST by ElPatriota (Let's not forget, we are all still friends - basically :) - despite our differences)
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To: Reagan Man
The MSM is pushing the BIG 3, with conservative Newt bringing up the rear. I don't believe the party activist conservatives will go for Rudy in the primaries.

Interesting that Duncan Hunter, the still relatively unknown 6 term Congressman from San Diego beat McCain in a recent Arizona straw poll, as reported here earlier today.

Duncan Hunter takes Arizona GOP Straw Poll

68 posted on 01/16/2007 10:10:05 AM PST by Jack Black
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To: Dog Gone

I was just thinking that because of his visibility as a commentator, people know him as articulate and well informed on the issues.

I think that counts for more than any gaffes the liberal media might mine from that volume of speech.


69 posted on 01/16/2007 10:14:38 AM PST by Kellis91789 (Sarcasm should never need a tag.)
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To: Delphinium
I know the facts about the horrid numbers of abortions in this country. They will never become illegal. I can only resolve myself to the comfort that we will all be held accountable for our actions during our lifetime and I pray for the innocent lives lost to this horrible procedure.
70 posted on 01/16/2007 10:14:57 AM PST by poobear
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To: sitetest

I think your post is quite correct in most respects.

The only thing I'm skeptical of is whether the overall numbers of abortions would be significantly reduced if the question were returned to the states.

There are states right now without any significant number of abortion clinics. If I'm not mistaken, either Mississippi or Alabama only has one in the entire state.

As long as Southwest Airlines has cheap Funfares, getting an abortion even if you live in a highly restricted state is not going to be too much of a challenge. There will be a number of states that will retain abortion on demand and it might take several generations of incremental progress to have a hope of changing that.


71 posted on 01/16/2007 10:15:10 AM PST by Dog Gone
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To: Reagan Man

Flop.

I would not vote for a third party if Rudy were the candidate.

I probably would vote for my favorite Republican by write-in.

I've looked at the 3rd parties and (1) they've got things I simply don't buy, and (2) they only show up at election time.


72 posted on 01/16/2007 10:18:22 AM PST by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and proud of it! Supporting our troops means praying for them to WIN!)
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To: Kellis91789
I was just thinking that because of his visibility as a commentator, people know him as articulate and well informed on the issues.

It might, but the American public prefers the outsider with a bit of mystique. The new guy in town.

Nobody knows a thing about Osama Obama, so he's a frontrunner!

I think Gingrich would be the favorite of intellectual conservatives, but I guarantee you can find filmclip of him saying something which could be taken out of context and used against him. I'm afraid he'd be playing a lot of defense thanks to his record.

73 posted on 01/16/2007 10:20:20 AM PST by Dog Gone
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To: Reagan Man

TransV Rudi is a FLOP!!!


Newt Gingrich/Ben Stein '08

I may not get my wish, but I know who the best team would be.


74 posted on 01/16/2007 10:21:25 AM PST by Lewite (Praise YAHWEH and Proclaim His Wonderful Name! Islam, the end time Beast-the harlot of Babylon.)
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To: Dog Gone

Dear Dog Gone,

"The only thing I'm skeptical of is whether the overall numbers of abortions would be significantly reduced if the question were returned to the states."

We'll never know as long as Roe is the law of the land.

"There will be a number of states that will retain abortion on demand and it might take several generations of incremental progress to have a hope of changing that."

I think that's entirely possible.

But it won't start until Roe goes.


sitetest


75 posted on 01/16/2007 10:21:49 AM PST by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
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To: Jack Black

I didn't see him do anything so brilliant during 9/11 that he deserves the reputation as the most capable prosecutor of the WOT. That seems to be the mantra: "He'll be strong against terror!" I think that's a big leap, and a big gamble. And fighting terrorism is great, but we can't just throw everything else away to do it.

I think the only hope--and it seems pretty dim right now--is to retake the Congress with members principled enough to oppose liberalism whether it comes from a Democrat or a Republican. Or, we can avoid such a grim situation by not even nominating this guy.


76 posted on 01/16/2007 10:22:50 AM PST by Rastus
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To: sitetest
See the true definition of insanity;

"Where an individual repeatedly continues a behavior that has proven to be unhealthy or promotes failure, expecting a different result each time."

Vote third party if you like, it falls well into those parameters.
77 posted on 01/16/2007 10:27:28 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (Show me a 'true' Conservative and I'll show someone with bad knees)
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To: sitetest; Dog Gone

Actually when resonable abortion restrictions are enforced (parent consent, 24 waiting period), the abortion rate does go down. The decline in abortion rates during the Clinton era was attributed to more abortion restrictions being passed. Cynically, the RATS claim that Clinton reduced the abortion rate, thus more pro-life than any Republican.


78 posted on 01/16/2007 10:28:39 AM PST by Kuksool (I learned more about political science on FR than in college)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Dear PSYCHO-FREEP,

Projection is a powerful defense mechanism. As I look at your screen name, perhaps in your case, it may be self-admitted. ;-)

"Where an individual repeatedly continues a behavior that has proven to be unhealthy or promotes failure, expecting a different result each time."

In that I've never voted third-party, I'm not repeatedly continuing a behavior of any sort by doing so. Thus, this doesn't apply to me (at least not for this particular behavior). Do you have any perseverating behavior that you'd like to talk about?


sitetest


79 posted on 01/16/2007 10:32:29 AM PST by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
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To: Dog Gone
The media is another factor in who gets the publicity whether they deserve it or not.

Obama is going on OPRAH to announce his intentions of running. This is what America has lowered itself to. The average voter is terminally ignorant and the Democrats know this.

Giuliani is our most obvious choice to counter this dynamic. He has fame and fortune and will appeal to the independents who drive the outcome of national elections.
80 posted on 01/16/2007 10:33:08 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (Show me a 'true' Conservative and I'll show someone with bad knees)
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