This is the clearest, most easily understood essay about why the climate models can't predict the future weather accuratily that I have ever read.
1 posted on
01/16/2007 5:06:49 AM PST by
oldtimer2
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To: oldtimer2
Uh oh. Another global warming denier! He's an International criminal for daring to dispute the theology. Arrest that man.
2 posted on
01/16/2007 5:12:01 AM PST by
saganite
(Billions and billions and billions-------and that's just the NASA budget!)
To: oldtimer2
The ultimate cop out is when they state waiting for difinitive proof would be too late to change it. How convenient for their agenda.
3 posted on
01/16/2007 5:13:39 AM PST by
edpc
(The pen is mightier than the sword......until you fight someone.)
To: oldtimer2
Excellent article to read on a 32 degree day in Houston. Thanks...
7 posted on
01/16/2007 5:54:11 AM PST by
tje
To: oldtimer2
Fantastic article. I am a Black Belt in statistics and have always thought this about a phenomenon with so many variables. Any process with more than 10 factors is very difficult to analyze and correlate strongly with 1 factor strongly. In Global warming where we have 100's of factors, none of which we can be absolutely certain about, it is absurd to be able to link warming to one factor. The article explains it very coherently and is an excellent common sense way to explain this to our liberal friends. Oops sorry, I nearly forgot; liberals are devoid of common sense and feel their way through life !
8 posted on
01/16/2007 5:59:16 AM PST by
Maneesh
(A non-hyphenated American.)
To: oldtimer2
I would like to take the writer seriously but although he identifies himself as a scientist, I can't seem to find what his credentials, affiliation or even his specialty are. Does anyone know what these are for him?
I get nervous when someone asserts that a problem is too complicated to tackle. He questions the reliability of the current global climate (computer) models, but neglects to mention that these have been succesfully tested on real-world conditions. E.g., if you plug in the initial conditions resulting from the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo (1991), the models correctly predict the amount and duration of the resulting global cooling.
To: oldtimer2
I go deaf to the global warming crowd incessantly wailing about man's impact on climate. There doesn't seem to be a credible argument for it. The message from the global warmist theology is often anti-American, fails to equally judge other nations, and usually calls for solutions that are not practical at best.
What I do buy into can be expressed as follows: Consumption of resources and generation of waste are inevitable - and acceptable. Our ability to manage resources and pollution can positively affect quality of life.
To: oldtimer2
Human Caused Global Warming
One can make an argument that greenhouse gasses are being generated at enormous levels, but there is no data to argue that GG will cause global warming. In fact, we are likely to go into another ice age and then the question will be "Can we generate enough GG to protect us from freezing to death?"
11 posted on
01/16/2007 6:08:21 AM PST by
Paloma_55
(I may be a hateful bigot, but I still love you)
To: oldtimer2
12 posted on
01/16/2007 6:16:30 AM PST by
frithguild
(The Freepers moved as a group, like a school of sharks sweeping toward an unaware and unarmed victim)
To: oldtimer2
This is the clearest, most easily understood essay about why the climate models can't predict the future weather accuratily that I have ever read.It's an argument quite a few of us could have made. Thanks to James Lewis for packaging it!
13 posted on
01/16/2007 6:22:01 AM PST by
jimfree
(Freep and ye shall find.)
To: oldtimer2
The biggest problem is that many people can't think except in cliches, and we don't have any cliche to say "I don't know." That's why the headline says "probably a crock" instead of "unknown certainty".
14 posted on
01/16/2007 6:25:00 AM PST by
SmartAZ
To: oldtimer2
15 posted on
01/16/2007 6:25:03 AM PST by
bcsco
("He who is wedded to the spirit of the age is soon a widower" ? Anonymous)
To: oldtimer2
It is important *now* to separate those individuals who "preach" global warming as "faith", from those who accept a preponderance of the evidence. Why? Because if and when it is obvious that global warming is hooey, the "faith-based' global warming advocates must be purged from any position where they can influence science again. There just isn't any room in science for the arrogance of faith. This is because science is like a game of chess. If you play a game of chess, you play by the rules, or it isn't chess. You can play with chess pieces on what looks like a chess board, but unless you follow the rules, exactly, it isn't chess. In science, you can have scientific equipment and work in a laboratory, but unless you follow each and every rule of science, it isn't science. Importantly, what you accomplish is the same, too. If you play a game of chess by the rules, that is *all* you have done: play a game of chess. And if you conduct a scientific experiment to its conclusion, that, too, is all you have done. People mistakenly assume that because you draw conclusions because of a scientific experiment, by interpolation or extrapolation, that they, too, are "scientific". This is NOT true. They are not. While they *may* follow the course of the experiment, and very closely, unless they, too, explicitly follow the rules of science, then they are NOT part of science. This is the great error that non-scientists invariably make. Some accidentally, many on purpose, because they wish to use the legitimacy of science to back up their non-scientific claims. And in the case of global warning, they have pretended that science gives them the *right* to brow-beat and shout down scientists who reserve judgment until observations justify the hypothesis. So they are as mistaken and anti-science as was the Catholic church in its suppression of Galileo. And this is why they must be purged from positions where they can influence and corrupt science further. And why we should remember their names.
To: oldtimer2
Why Global Warming is Probably a Crock .....Al Gore supports it.
20 posted on
01/16/2007 6:38:58 AM PST by
showme_the_Glory
(No more rhyming, and I mean it! ..Anybody want a peanut.....)
To: oldtimer2
Why Global Warming is Probably a CrockThere. I fixed it for ya. ;-)
21 posted on
01/16/2007 6:42:03 AM PST by
OB1kNOb
(When the odds are against you, go for the jugular. - Jack Bauer)
To: Apple Blossom
22 posted on
01/16/2007 6:43:38 AM PST by
bmwcyle
(Don't forget to send the bouquet of pork chops for Saddam's family)
To: oldtimer2
If hypercomplex systems were predictable, NASA would have foolproof space shuttles If hypercomplex systems were predictable your local weatherman would provide hyperaccurate weather forecasts.....
26 posted on
01/16/2007 6:56:00 AM PST by
Thermalseeker
(Just the facts, ma'am)
To: oldtimer2
"This is the clearest, most easily understood essay about why the climate models can't predict the future weather accuratily that I have ever read."
Definately a good read and good info. My stance on Global Warming has always been, when the Local weatherman can accurately predict a 5 day forecast 10 times out of 10, then I'll give some attention to Global Warming. Right now they are rarely better than 3 out of 10.
28 posted on
01/16/2007 7:00:17 AM PST by
Leatherneck_MT
(In a world where Carpenters come back from the dead, ALL things are possible.)
To: oldtimer2
33 posted on
01/16/2007 7:09:19 AM PST by
Ditter
To: oldtimer2
39 posted on
01/16/2007 7:24:04 AM PST by
Gritty
(We face a full-scale planetary emergency. We have a climate crisis. - Al Gore)
To: oldtimer2
We're freezing in CA. Breaking records for cold. Brrrr......
40 posted on
01/16/2007 7:25:40 AM PST by
veronica
(http://images20.fotki.com/v360/photos/1/106521/3848737/gladysPSCP-vi.jpg)
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