Posted on 01/03/2007 11:41:03 AM PST by Bokababe
FOR a long time, I let my hopes for a decent outcome in Iraq triumph over what I had learned reporting from Lebanon during its civil war. Those hopes vanished last summer. So, I'd like to offer President Bush my updated rules of Middle East reporting, which also apply to diplomacy, in hopes they'll help him figure out what to do next in Iraq.
Rule 1: What people tell you in private in the Middle East is irrelevant. All that matters is what they will defend in public in their own language. Anything said to you in English, in private, doesn't count. In Washington, officials lie in public and tell the truth off the record. In the Mideast, officials say what they really believe in public and tell you what you want to hear in private.
Rule 2: Any reporter or U.S. Army officer wanting to serve in Iraq should have to take a test, consisting of one question: "Do you think the shortest distance between two points is a straight line?" If you answer yes, you can't go to Iraq. You can serve in Japan, Korea or Germany — not Iraq.
Rule 3: If you can't explain something to Middle Easterners with a conspiracy theory, then don't try to explain it at all — they won't believe it.
Rule 4: In the Middle East, never take a concession, except out of the mouth of the person doing the conceding. If I had a dollar for every time someone agreed to recognize Israel on behalf of Yasser Arafat, I could paper my walls.
Rule 5: Never lead your story out of Lebanon, Gaza or Iraq with a cease-fire; it will always be over before the next morning's paper.
Rule 6: In the Middle East, the extremists go all the way, and the moderates tend to just go away.
Rule 7: The most oft-used expression by moderate Arab pols is: "We were just about to stand up to the bad guys when you stupid Americans did that stupid thing. Had you stupid Americans not done that stupid thing, we would have stood up, but now it's too late. It's all your fault for being so stupid."
Rule 8: Civil wars in the Arab world are rarely about ideas — like liberalism vs. communism. They are about which tribe gets to rule. So, yes, Iraq is having a civil war as we once did. But there is no Abe Lincoln in this war. It's the South vs. the South.
Rule 9: In Middle East tribal politics there is rarely a happy medium. When one side is weak, it will tell you, "I'm weak, how can I compromise?" And when it's strong, it will tell you, "I'm strong, why should I compromise?"
Rule 10: Mideast civil wars end in one of three ways: a) like the U.S. civil war, with one side vanquishing the other; b) like the Cyprus civil war, with a hard partition and a wall dividing the parties; or c) like the Lebanon civil war, with a soft partition under an iron fist (Syria) that keeps everyone in line. Saddam used to be the iron fist in Iraq. Now it is us. If we don't want to play that role, Iraq's civil war will end with A or B.
Rule 11: The most underestimated emotion in Arab politics is humiliation. The Israeli-Arab conflict, for instance, is not just about borders. Israel's mere existence is a daily humiliation to Muslims, who can't understand how, if they have the superior religion, Israel can be so powerful. Al Jazeera's editor, Ahmed Sheikh, said it best when he recently told the Swiss weekly Die Weltwoche: "It gnaws at the people in the Middle East that such a small country as Israel, with only about 7 million inhabitants, can defeat the Arab nation with its 350 million. That hurts our collective ego. The Palestinian problem is in the genes of every Arab. The West's problem is that it does not understand this."
Rule 12: Thus, the Israelis will always win, and the Palestinians will always make sure they never enjoy it. Everything else is just commentary.
Rule 13: Our first priority is democracy, but the Arabs' first priority is "justice." The oft-warring Arab tribes are all wounded souls, who really have been hurt by colonial powers, by Jewish settlements on Palestinian land, by Arab kings and dictators, and, most of all, by each other in endless tribal wars. For Iraq's long-abused Shiite majority, democracy is first and foremost a vehicle to get justice. Ditto the Kurds. For the minority Sunnis, democracy in Iraq is a vehicle of injustice. For us, democracy is all about protecting minority rights. For them, democracy is first about consolidating majority rights and getting justice.
Rule 14: The Lebanese historian Kamal Salibi had it right: "Great powers should never get involved in the politics of small tribes."
Rule 15: Whether it is Arab-Israeli peace or democracy in Iraq, you can't want it more than they do.
The only thing that he said here that was out of line was "Jewish settlements on Palestinian land", otherwise I think that he is right on the money.
However, expecting us to care about the Arab fragile "wounded souls" is a bit much.
Other than that gratuitous slap at Southerners (rule #8) and that I am not sure what rule #15 means, I like the article.
a good handle on tribalists
these people are too close to the dirt.
politically, economically, spiritually, socially.
thus same as ever, they rely on our old outdated technologies
No, it's actually right on target.
The implication there is that the U.S. should either bomb these places to the ground or leave them alone -- because this silly, delusional, utopian nation-building sh!t is never going to work no matter how hard we try.
High volume. Articles on Israel can also be found by clicking on the Topic or Keyword Israel, WOT
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In consideration of Rep. Ellisons use of a Koran from Jefferson’s research collection for his unofficial swearing in.
"The Ambassador [to England from Tripoli] answered us that it was founded on the Laws of their Prophet, that it was written in their Koran, that all nations who should not have acknowledged their authority were sinners, that it was their right and duty to make war upon them wherever they could be found and to make slaves of all they could take as Prisoners."
Thomas Jefferson and John Adams in their report to CongressYou can't back down, you can't chicken out, you can't be afraid, you got to have faith in Allah, and you got to stand up and be a real Muslim
Keith Ellison
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Arabs couldn't care *less* about Palestinians. Kurds in Northern Iraq don't cry themselves to sleep at night over the plight of Palestinians in Israel. Arabs formed alliances with Jordan after Jordan kicked the Palestinians out of Jordan. Ditto with Egypt after Egypt kicked out their Palestinians.
Arab oil sheiks in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait aren't going to fast to support Palestinians, nor are they going to set aside land or oil for the Palis.
Nor are religious Arabs in the know particularly thrilled with the secular PFLP.
Palestinians are viewed by Arabs as foolish tools...useful for harassing Israel but not worthy of being invited into anyone's home or country.
When Syria crushed Palestinians, there was no Arab outcry. The author of this article can't explain that fact.
Unless a massive crusade is planned and executed and millions slaughtered, we will never stop global Jihadists and radical Islam.
The trick is how to postpone it indefinitely by hitting them hard enough to stop it for a few generations, then wash, rinse and repeat as needed.
It was the same thing we did with the Soviets. Problem was Clinton let them back in the game.
Exactly- While we, the most powerful nation on earth- get totally overrun by Jihadists, little dinky Ethiopia will stomp the ever loving guts out of Jihadists. While we sit on our bombs, keep our rifles on safety, glue the pins of our grenades so that they can't be used- Ethiopia will be opening fire on those who threaten them. http://sacredscoop.com
Sure we can leave them alone provided we wall them off and prevent them from interfering in our own affairs, however, until we can ween ourselves of ME oil I don't see us isolating ourselves from ME affairs.
Gee Tom, that's so nice of you. I hope President Bush will immediately file these in the circular cabinet!
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Too add to your statement, not only are we allowing jihadists to infiltrate our culture, we have even used our military might to stomp out those who were attempting to eradicate such a threat.
Bump for later reading.
It's a shame his wisdom is all in hindsight and he's now running as fast as he can to catch up with the bandwagon going the other way.
Yes. It's called inbreeding.
Ouch.
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