The Biggest Story Of Our Time: Self Extinction (Mark Steyn: Its The Demography, Stupid Alert)

Chicago Sun Times ^ | 12/24/2006 | Mark Steyn

[goldstategop]

Suppose for a moment that the birth in Bethlehem that Christians celebrate this week never happened --that it is, as the secularists would have it, mere mumbo jumbo, superstition, a myth. In other words, consider it not as an event but as a narrative. You want to launch a big new global movement from scratch. So what do you use? The birth of a child.

If Christianity is just a myth, then it is, so to speak, an immaculately conceived one. On the one hand, what could be more powerless than a newborn babe? On the other, without a newborn babe, man is ultimately powerless. For, without new life, there can be no civilization, no society, no nothing.

"The world has collapsed," announces a BBC newsman in a new movie. "Only Britain soldiers on." Europe in 1940? No, 2027. Adapted from P.D. James' dystopian novel, Children Of Men is set on a planet in which humanity is barren. That's to say, it can no longer reproduce. And you'd be amazed at how much else collapses with the fertility rate.

You might have a hard time finding ''Children Of Men'' at your local multiplex. It's a more pertinent Christmas movie this holiday season than ''Bad Santa 3'' or ''The Santa Clause 8,'' but Universal seems to have got cold feet and all but killed the picture. In an enthusiastic review in Seattle Weekly, J. Hoberman observed: "Universal may have deemed 'Children' too grim for Christmas, but it is premised on a reverence for life that some might term religious." Granted, he's in the godless precincts of Seattle, that last bit of the sentence -- "some might" -- seems a tad qualified. Obviously, Christianity has a "reverence for life." So too does Judaism: all that begetting the eyes glaze over at in the Old Testament, going right back to God's injunction to be fruitful and multiply.

Christmas is a good time not just for Christians to ponder the central proposition of their faith -- the baby in the manger -- but for post-Christian secularists to ponder the central proposition of theirs: that religion is a lot of goofy voodoo nonsense and that any truly rational person will give it the bum's rush. The problem with this view is that "rationalism" is looking less and less rational with each passing year. Here are three headlines from the last couple of weeks:

• • "Mohammed Overtakes George In List Of Most Popular Names" (Daily Telegraph, London)

• • "Japan's Population 'Set To Plummet' " (BBC News)

• • "Islam Thrives As Russia's Population Falls" (Toronto Star)

By comparison with America, those three societies are very secular. Indeed, Russia spent three-quarters of a century under the most militantly secularist regime of all: Under Communism, the state was itself a religion, but, alas, only an ersatz one, a present-tense chimera. As a result, Russians more or less gave up begetting: Slavs are in steep population decline, and, on present trends, Russia will be majority Muslim by 2050. And the Russian army will be majority Muslim by 2015. In western Europe, societal suicide isn't quite so advanced, but the symbolism is still poignant: "George" isn't just the name of America's reviled cowboy president, but of England's patron saint; the national flag is the Cross of St. George, under which Englishmen sallied forth to smite the Mohammedans in those long-ago Crusades. Now the Mohammedans have managed to smite the Georgians big time, not by conquest but simply by outbreeding. Mohammed is also the most popular boy's name in Brussels, Amsterdam and other Continental cities.

But forget Islam: In Europe, they're inheriting by default. There are no Muslims or any other significant group of immigrants in Japan and yet the Japanese are engaging in a remorseless auto-genocide. Already in net population decline and the most geriatric society on earth, their descent down the death spiral is only going to accelerate. As the BBC reported, "The imbalance is threatening future economic growth and raising fears over whether the government will be able to fund pensions. But Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki said: 'It's impossible for the pension system to collapse due to the declining birth rate because we will adjust the amount of money put into it.' "

Oh, OK then. But, just as a matter of interest, when you "adjust" the amount of money you put into the pension system, whose pockets are you going to "adjust" it out of? Japanese and European societies are trying to secure the future on upside-down family trees in which four grandparents have one grandchild. No matter how frantically you "adjust," that's unsustainable.

What's the answer? Cloning? Artificial intelligence? Well, here's another story you may have missed in recent days. Sir David King, the British government's chief scientific adviser, has turned in a bunch of reports on issues likely to arise in the next 50 years. Among them is a study on "robot rights." In a nutshell, if robots advance to some form of consciousness, they'd be entitled to welfare. The state would be obliged to provide "robo-healthcare," as the report puts it, plus no doubt robo-pensions and all the rest.

These are four stories you may not even have seen, what with all the really important stuff happening in the world, like Miss USA not being fired by Donald Trump, and Matt Damon dissing Dick Cheney. I'm a big 24/7 demographics bore, as readers of my new doomsday book will know, but even I'm a little taken aback at the way its thesis is confirmed every day by some item from some part of the map. These stories are all one story, the biggest story of our time: the self-extinction of most of the developed world.

The Virgin Mary's pregnancy is not the only one in the Gospels. There's another that prefigures it, in Luke 1:13:

"But the angel said unto him, Fear not, Zacharias: for thy prayer is heard; and thy wife Elisabeth shall bear thee a son, and thou shalt call his name John."

Zacharias is surprised to discover his impending fatherhood -- "for I am an old man and my wife well stricken in years." If you read Luke, the virgin birth seems a logical extension of the earlier miracle -- the pregnancy of Mary's elderly cousin. For Matthew, Jesus' birth is the miracle. Luke, a physician, leaves you with the impression that all birth -- all life -- is to a degree miraculous and God-given, if only because without it there can be no world. The obligation to have children may be a lot of repressive theocratic hooey, but it's less irrational than the secular self-absorption of a barren Russia, Japan and Europe. And, if Christianity is a fairy tale, it's a perfectly constructed one, beginning with the decision to establish Christ's divinity in the miracle of His birth: As the song says, "And man will live forevermore because of Christmas Day."

[RKBA Democrat]

"So what if we face extinction because of our fantasist beliefs? At least we'll go extinct being what we are - Cowardly, self-indulgent sybarites with a fatuous faith in our own superiority. Merry Christmas all."

Interesting comment. Particularly the somewhat ironic Merry Christmas.

I don't think it's going to be an issue of outright extinction but more of a long term polarization. There are some very dedicated Christians who at more of an emotional and religious level have already gotten the message loud and clear. They're already having children like mad and home educating them to boot. And they're teaching their children the importance of doing the same thing. Just because you don't read about it in the lamestream media doesn't mean that these folks aren't out there.

The rest of our society who isn't interested in reproducing will not be relevant in another 50 years. They've already self-selected themselves out of the gene pool.

[RKBA Democrat]

"Get with the plan, go forth and multiply!"

I don't really need encouragement in that respect. :-)

[finnigan2]

""I said on another thread on Salim Mansour's review of Mark Steyn's best-seller America Alone, that West needs to make demography a policy priority."

- Making demographic change a state priority may be more difficult than it first appears. The Province of Quebec has long been concerned that it's french speaking population has been declining in relative numbers, being surrounded by a North America awash in anglos.
About 15 to 20 years ago they introduced a government program to reward Quebec parents with a cash bonus of more than $1,000. for every child born in the Province. The incentive seems to have had no effect. Quebec's birthrate is still amongst the lowest in Canada - which is low enough as it is.
Obviously, offering cash alone won't reverse a declining birthrate. Since a government doesn't have much more than money at it's disposal to promote or discourage behavior, any factors that could reverse declining birthrates will have to come from other societal influences - such as spirituality. A very tough task indeed.

[Notwithstanding]

I pray for my 7 children.

Our only hope is that the muslim kids will all get fat and lazy living in the west, like most westerners do, and abandon their false religion as too burdensome.

[Notwithstanding]

It should have been:

"One of our BEST hopes..."

[caspera]

With all due respect, you misunderstood what I was saying. By "too many" is meant that the fact that the growth rate slowing and actually reversing in most of the world is de-facto evidence that the current global population is at or nearing it's maximum sustainable level

It is not de facto evidence of any such thing. The Muslim birth rate is exploding. Gaza has a birth rate into the fours or fives. Spain has a birth rate of 1.3. Are you saying that this is de facto evidence that Spain has hit its resource ceiling whereas Gaza has not? Ridiculous. You are ignoring the importance of ideology. The Shakers did not believe in sex -- even the procreative kind. That's why you don't find a lot of Shakers around. Not because North America ran out of resources for the Shakers.

Western Man has recently come to prize non-procreative sex: abortion, contraception, homosexuality, late marriage, etc. Whatever you may personally think of these activities does not alter the fact that they put one at a demographic disadvantage to a philoprogenic philosophy.

[Running On Empty]

Marking

[RKBA Democrat]

"About 15 to 20 years ago they introduced a government program to reward Quebec parents with a cash bonus of more than $1,000. for every child born in the Province. The incentive seems to have had no effect. Quebec's birthrate is still amongst the lowest in Canada - which is low enough as it is."

A $1,000 cash bonus is chump change compared to the costs of raising a child. And even if they were to multiply that bonus by a factor of 10, I doubt it would have the intended effect.

In this day of birth control and infanticide, the people who have children are those who want them for reasons that have little to do with economics. That may come from some immature sense of just wanting a baby, as we see with unwed pregnant teenagers, or it may come from a desire rooted in spirituality as we see amongst Christians.

The best thing that the state can do to increase birthrates is not to penalize those who are inclined to have them. And this is one area where I depart the conservative reservation, as I think our current tax structure is incredibly punitive towards those who do have children. And the "solutions" promoted by many conservatives would simply exacerbate that.

[Tax-chick]

And the Russian army will be majority Muslim by 2015.

Nurp. Interesting scenarios vis-a-vis Russia's border with China suggestion themselves ...

The problem with Mark Steyn's columns on this subject, though, is that they're not funny.

[Gunny Gene]

I believe I said global . I'm well aware that individual countries, cultures, etc. will vary quite a lot.

See the graphs here, in particular the growth rate graphic. http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/world.html

[Popman]

The "simple rule" for gays is not to reproduce, but to recruit.

Gay marriage is a means, not an end.

[BW2221]

Five of the six billion inhabitants of the earth seem willing to live in harmony. Then there's the billion Muslims.

[raybbr]

Interesting. It's okay to attack the changing demographics regarding Islam but not when the hispanic culture begins to take over. (I don't mean you)

[goldstategop]

Russia would be the penultimate Islamic power with The Bomb - after Pakistan and Iran.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Gunny Gene]

Are they? ( the 5 billion ). Perhaps, for the time being.

[aculeus]

bttt

[BW2221]

I am no fan of illegal immigration and am a frequent critic of Bush on immigration and border security. In fact, I consider him a disgrace in these areas.

But, stop and think how much worse the problem would be if 12 - 20 million illegal aliens were Muslim. Can you think of anything worse for the U.S. than 12 - 20 million additional Muslims?

For all their faults (and they are many), at least the Mexican illegals are not bent on converting us to Islam and imposing Islamic law on us in the future. While I'm not big on either one, Cinquo de Mayo sounds like a lot more fun than Ramadan.

[sodpoodle]

Western Man has recently come to prize non-procreative sex: abortion, contraception, homosexuality, late marriage, etc. Whatever you may personally think of these activities does not alter the fact that they put one at a demographic disadvantage to a philoprogenic philosophy.
________________________________________________________

An obvious result of Intelligent Design.

[Louis Foxwell]

... the growth rate slowing and actually reversing in most of the world is de-facto evidence that the current global population is at or nearing it's maximum sustainable level...

A curious thesis given the demographics of third world countries, regions and continents - SA, Africa - where populations continue to increase as a function of poverty.

Only in the most economically independent cultures is population on the decline. The exception, of course, is China, where infanticide is government policy. 200 million young men without brides will soon bring that jaded experiment to a screeching halt; unless, of course, India cares to export its unwanted female population to the testosterone hordes of Mongols in the north.

[OrthodoxPresbyterian]

It's interesting that the "number of man" (666) thing is actually written as six hundred three score and six in the King James, which if parsed out is 600 20 20 20 6, or 6,002,020,206 (6 billion plus ). We passed this number about 6 years ago. A little fun with numerology, which was a popular pastime centuries ago. Especially concerning riddles. Think somebody back then may have been a mathematician?

Yes. The Apostle John, for one.

Revelation 13:18 (KJV) actually states:

Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six.

The Apostle John was referring to a specific Man, "the Number a A Man", not "the Number of Man". The following is from Dr. Noam D. Elkies, Professor of Mathematics at Harvard University:

In fact we probably do know just what wisdom the author of Revelations intended to convey with that number. Yes, it's Roman, and it's numerals, but the numerals aren't Roman. The Roman is the emperor Nero; the numerals are letters of the Hebrew alphabet. Each letter has a numerical value: Aleph is 1, Beth is 2, and so on until 10, then count by tens till 100, then by hundreds till we run out of letters. Nero Caesar in Hebrew is NeRON QeiSaR; adding up the letters we get ``the number of the man'', 666.... But the really suggestive hint is that the oldest manuscripts don't agree on the number: some have 616 instead. It's much harder to concoct an explanation that fits both numbers, and only one of the proposed interpretations of the Number of the Beast accounts for both: Nero. Remember it was NeRON QeiSaR in Hebrew. But the final N of NeRON is optional: the name can also be rendered NeRO, subtracting the letter N [Nun] and its value of 50 to get -- 616.
~~ (http://www.math.harvard.edu/~elkies/mp666.html)

The Apostle John specifically said, in Revelation 1:1, that he was warning the Faithful of his day and time about a great Tribulation which must "SHORTLY" take place, not some imaginary "Left Behind" Apocalyptic balderdash 2,000 years hence.

And, indeed, the Bible is yet again proven to be the very Word of God in the near-term fulfillment of John's very Prophecies, in that very generation:

Revelation 16: 17-18 -- And the seventh angel poured out his vial into the air; and there came a great voice out of the temple of heaven, from the throne, saying, It is done. And there were voices, and thunders, and lightnings; and there was a great earthquake, such as was not since men were upon the earth, so mighty an earthquake, [and] so great.

Josephus, the Jewish Wars -- Besides these, a few days after that feast, on the one-and-twentieth day of the month Artemisius, [Jyar,] a certain prodigious and incredible phenomenon appeared; I suppose the account of it would seem to be a fable, were it not related by those that saw it, and were not the events that followed it of so considerable a nature as to deserve such signals; for, before sun-setting, chariots and troops of soldiers in their armour were seen running about among the clouds, and surrounding of cities. Moreover, at that feast which we call Pentecost, as the priests were going by night into the inner temple, as their custom was, to perform their sacred ministrations, they said that, in the first place, they felt a quaking, and heard a great noise, and after that they heard a sound as of a great multitude, saying, "Let us remove hence".

Revelation 16:19-20 -- And the great city was divided into three parts, and the cities of the nations fell: and great Babylon came in remembrance before God, to give unto her the cup of the wine of the fierceness of his wrath. And every island fled away, and the mountains were not found.

Josephus, The Jewish Wars -- And now there were three treacherous factions in the city, the one parted from the other... Accordingly, it so came to pass, that all the places that were about the temple were burnt down, and were become an intermediate desert space, ready for fighting on both sides of it; and that almost all that corn was burnt, which would have been sufficient for a siege of many years. So they were taken by the means of the famine, which it was impossible they should have been, unless they had thus prepared the way for it by this procedure.

Revelation 16: 21 -- And there fell upon men a great hail out of heaven, [every stone] about the weight of a talent: and men blasphemed God because of the plague of the hail; for the plague thereof was exceeding great.

Josephus, The Jewish Wars -- The engines, that all the legions had ready prepared for them, were admirably contrived; but still more extraordinary ones belonged to the Tenth Legion: those that threw darts and those that threw stones were more forcible and larger than the rest, by which they not only repelled the excursions of the Jews, but drove those away that were upon the walls also. Now the stones that were cast were of the weight of a talent, and were carried two furlongs and further. The blow they gave was no way to be sustained, not only by those that stood first in the way, but by those that were beyond them for a great space. As for the Jews, they at first watched the coming of the stone, for it was of a white color, and could therefore not only be perceived by the great noise it made, but could be seen also before it came by its brightness; accordingly the watchmen that sat upon the towers gave them notice when the engine was let go, and the stone came from it, and cried out aloud, in their own country language, "THE SON COMETH!"

Most of Revelation concerns Prophecy which, in the Author's own words, must SHORTLY take place, in that day and age -- and were, indeed, 100% fulfilled, in that day and age.

The Book was certainly NEVER intended by Apostle Saint John as a justification for hyper-apocalyptic chicken-Christians living 2,000 years later to invent Malthusian faux-overpopulation excuses to let the Moslems inherit the Earth.

---

Good to see you 'round, L.

Best Regards, and Merry Christmas. OP