Posted on 12/14/2006 1:37:46 PM PST by Bubba_Leroy
Space weather forecasters revised their predictions for storminess after a major flare erupted on the Sun overnight threatening damage to communication systems and power grids while offering up the wonder of Northern Lights.
"We're looking for very strong, severe geomagnetic storming" to begin probably around mid-day Thursday, Joe Kunches, Lead Forecaster at the NOAA Space Environment Center, told SPACE.com this afternoon.
The storm is expected to generate aurora or Northern Lights, as far south as the northern United States Thursday night. Astronauts aboard the International Space Station are not expected to be put at additional risk, Kunches said.
Radio communications, satellites and power grids could face potential interruptions or damage, however.
Solar flares send radiation to Earth within minutes. Some are also accompanied by coronal mass ejections (CME), clouds of charged particles that arrive in a day or two. This flare unleashed a strong CME that's aimed squarely at Earth.
"It's got all the right stuff," Kunches said.
However, one crucial component to the storm is unknown: its magnetic orientation. If it lines up a certain way with Earth's magnetic field, then the storm essentially pours into our upper atmosphere. If the alignment is otherwise, the storm can pass by the planet with fewer consequences.
Kunches and his team are advising satellite operators and power grid managers to keep an eye on their systems. In the past, CMEs have knocked out satellites and tripped terrestrial power grids. Engineers have learned to limit switching at electricity transfer stations, and satellite operators sometimes reduce operations or make back-up plans in case a craft is damaged.
Another aspect of a CME involves protons that get pushed along by the shock wave. Sometimes these protons break through Earth's protective magnetic field and flood the outer reaches of the atmosphere—where the space station orbits—with radiation. The science of it all is a gray area, Kunches said. But the best guess now is that there will only be a slight increase in proton activity. That's good news for the astronauts.
"When the shock goes by, we don't expect significant radiation issues," he said.
The astronauts were ordered to a protective area of the space station as a precaution last night.
Now that sunspot number 930 has flared so significantly—after several days of being quiet—the forecast calls for a "reasonble chance" of more major flares in coming days, Kunches said.
Women and minorities to be hardest hit.
where will the weather channel put their reporters ?
It hit several hours ago. I didnt notice the world come to an end.
It was an intentional plan.
Karl Rove's black-clad operatives ready to harness the energy from this solar storm and direct toward some poor unsuspecting country.
We already know they did this sort of thing with the tsunami.
I kept an eye out for the aurora last night but saw the Geminid meteors only.
Either we are equal or we are not. Good people ought to be armed where they will, with wits and guns. Merry Christmas
Will there be any fire and brimstone?
Doomed.
Well when we find out where they send Jim Cantori...leave that town if its yours. LOL!
Just announced...
Jim Cantore will be sent to Mercury to determine the voracity of the next solar storm. He is expected to get there in about 6-12 months, which will be too late for this storm, but will be just right for the next one.
Mr. Cantore has been fitted with a special anti-radiation suit, and will be taking the last of the north pole icecaps with him to stay cool. I doubt he will wear the suit, though.
My UPS beeped once today around 8:30 CST. That must've been it!
OMG, Beer Run!
I can see the protons getting shoved through the Van Allen Belts, and into the upper atmosphere. But I've never regarded anything above 60+ miles altitude...as part of the Earth's atmosphere. For the most part its already vacuum there...getting increasingly rarified the higher you go. The ISS orbits at what, 230+ miles? [ From 370 to 460 kilometres ]
"Space weather forcasters?" LOL I smell a new con coming on!
.lamron smees gnihtyrevE .ereh tceffe oN
Actually shortwave enthusiasts will be hardest hit.
The last time I saw a notice like this was in March of 2001. The next few nights saw some of the most spectacular aurora displays in recent memory -- including reports of sightings as far south as Texas and Mexico.
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