Western culture: Is it death by fertility rate?

Toronto Sun ^ | December 10, 2006 | PETER WORTHINGTON

[NYer]

In Maclean’s magazine last month, Mark Steyn wrote a plaintive piece about how his new book, America Alone, was unavailable in Canadian bookstores — an apparent victim of a fear of militant Muslim reprisals.

The Chapters-Indigo chain subsequently insisted it wasn’t giving Steyn’s book the Mein Kampf treatment (banned from being sold in the chain by the boss, Heather Reisman), but that they hadn’t anticipated the popularity of America Alone (a best-seller) and hadn’t ordered enough copies.

Last I heard, the book was in its fourth printing and, happy to say, a phone check with Chapters indicates they’ve now got plenty of the books. Good news, because in my view, America Alone is not a polemic against Muslims in the way that the late Oriana Fallaci’s The Force of Reason or Melanie Phillips’ Londonistan are.

Rather, Steyn seems to be saying the rise of militant or extremist Islam is partly our fault – the non-Muslim world’s passivity or acquiescence to outrageous acts or intemperate demands.

True, he sees Europe being overwhelmed by Muslims — not because of violence, but because of Europe’s declining birthrate and the high fertility rate of Muslims. That’s a far cry from legions of jihadists sweeping over the continent, intimidating all in its path.

For a stable population — that is, no growth — a country has to have a fertility rate of at least 2.1 live births per woman. Of all developed countries, only the U.S. meets that standard. Canada’s fertility rate is 1.48 while Europe as a whole is even lower at 1.38. Japan’s is 1.32, Russia’s 1.14, and so on throughout Europe. Steyn calls it “the self-extinction of civilization.” In other words, there is no “population bomb” that many saw threatening the world and its resources.

But Muslim countries have a live birth rate ranging from five to seven per woman that already has had a dramatic effect on Europe.

For example, 10% of France’s population is Muslim.

Yet of citizens under the age of 20, 30% are Muslim.

In the cities that ratio rises to 45%. So when the “youth” of Paris and other centres erupt in violence and burn cars, rampage the streets, rape and vandalize, statistically it’s mostly young Muslims.

Huge problem

In Britain and Europe, around 15% of the population is under 15 years old, while in countries like Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen, 40% to 50% of the population is under 15. It’s going to be a huge problem for all countries when the grandparents outnumber the grandkids.

Demographically, Steyn feels groups with soaring birthrates will eventually dominate today’s developed world. Without a shot being fired.

With the U.S. about the only country with a viable birthrate that will keep its population from stagnating, the developed world has virtually surrendered to Muslim militancy.

As a people, we may fret that moderate Muslims are reluctant to speak out against Muslim terrorism and intimidation when they occur, for fear of reprisals.

But non-Muslims are even more loath to risk controversy. So how can moderate Muslims be blamed for their silence?

Steyn is more hawkish than many, especially in the media. Generally, most of the media don’t want trouble, or to appear insensitive or intolerant. After 9/11, most media tried to keep things in perspective, and not incite vengeance or reprisals on Muslims.

Fair enough. World leaders made pilgrimages to mosques to set an example.

Cartoon fiasco

While that discouraged anti-Muslim hysteria, it didn’t alleviate anti-West passions. Rather, it increased intimidation — witness scurrying for cover over the Danish cartoons fiasco, which was never about religion, but about politics and ideology. Today, not much has changed.

We still try to show sensitivity and understanding.

Often, cowardice is camouflaged as principle. It’s also a rule of nature, that if you can be intimidated, you will be intimidated.

That doesn’t affect the demographic reality that the world’s population will peak before 2050 and then start to decline. Read Steyn’s book for his answer to the world’s most aggravating problem.

[MinorityRepublican]

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