Posted on 12/01/2006 6:32:31 AM PST by shrinkermd
"...Since last summer, when the housing bust became unmistakable, interest rates on long-term bonds have fallen sharply. They’re now yielding much less than short-term bonds. The fact that investors are willing to buy those long-term bonds anyway tells us that these investors expect interest rates to fall. And that will happen only if the economy weakens, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut rates. So bond buyers are, in effect, betting on a future economic slowdown.
"...How serious a slump is the bond market predicting? Pretty serious. Right now, statistical models based on the historical correlation between interest rates and recessions give roughly even odds that we’re about to experience a formal recession. And since even a slowdown that doesn’t formally qualify as a recession can lead to a sharp rise in unemployment, the odds are very good — maybe 2 to 1 — that 2007 will be a very tough year.
(Excerpt) Read more at select.nytimes.com ...
It's the natural economic cycle at work.
LOL--the two are mutually exclusive.
well trained in economics
What's the old saw? Economists have predicted 11 out of the last four recessions?
LOL.....neither the NY Slimes nor Krugman can be considered a credible source. Under any circumstances!
Then he's a liar AND a hypocrite.
Intersting that we can tie the beginning of the last recession to a Democrat President, the end to a Republican President and the beginning of the next recession to a Democrat legislative majority.
Apparently, people with money don't like Democrats.
Krugman has been wrong on every prediction he has made since Bush got into office. I guess that comes from being a well trained economist. On the bright side, we will stop hearing about possible recessions once the Democrats officially take over. The economy will be great again.
"...Paul Robin Krugman (born February 28, 1953) is an economist at Princeton University who has written several books and since 2000 has written a twice-weekly op-ed column for The New York Times. He is currently a professor of Economics and International Affairs at Princeton University.
"Krugman is famous in academia for his work on trade theory in providing a model in which firms and countries produce and trade because of economies of scale and for his textbook explanations of currency crises. He was also a vocal critic of the new economy view of the late 1990s as well as pegged exchange rate regimes of the island Asia nations and Thailand before the 1997 debacle as well as relying on governments to defend the pegged rates that investors like Long Term Capital Management relied on just before the 1998 Russian debt default. His International Economics: Theory and Policy (currently in its seventh edition) is a standard textbook on international economics without resort to calculus. In 1991 he was awarded the prestigious John Bates Clark Medal by the American Economic Association. Krugman's economic philosophy can best be described as neo-Keynesian, which he has made accessible to the common reader in books such as Peddling Prosperity, which criticize Democratic policies of the late 1980s to mid 1990s.
"Krugman is an outspoken critic of the Bush administration's foreign and domestic policies. Unlike many economic pundits, Krugman is also regarded as an important scholarly contributor by some of his peers. Krugman has written over 200 articles and twenty books[1]—some of them academic, and some of them written for the layperson.
This funny little tweak has been predicting economic catastrophe every month since the end of 2000. Statistically, he could hit it right if the Times stays in business long enough.
No, they don't. Christmas sales are down so far, too. People are afraid to spend because of the coming tax increases (the democrats need to keep funding their base, ya know. democrats still want us to buy them stuff).
Since unemployment is at record lows, I think an increase at some point is likely. But even with an increase, it would qualify as full employment.
I frankly like having the nay-sayers and the bears around. If everyone agreed that the market was going up, risk would be considered zero, no one would sell, prices would go artificially high, and a bubble would eventually burst, bringing it crashing down.
Bless the bears and skeptics, whatever their agenda. We need them to moderate the market and bring sustained growth.
I'm never in bonds, in any case.
Look at his photo. Pretty obvious that considerable dosage of lithium was required to keep him sitting in pose for the camera. Has he ever been correct with any of his prognostications?
I'm not buying much for the holidays simply because it's hard to think of anything we need. I think I'll be giving people "Smile Train" certificates, like I did last year.
one thing we know for sure...although a long time ago, the principle holds true. These are recorded historical bits of trivia.....sounds interesting
18 May 1920 - The Federal Reserve Board held a secret meeting, to plan a depression. Large banks began calling in loans, causing stocks to drop from a high of 138.12 in 1919, to a low of 66.24 in 1921. When the value of government bonds plummeted, they were forced to call in even more loans. When thousands of the banks' customers could not pay their notes, the banks seized their assets.
19 June 1920 - "What is important is to dwell upon the increasing evidence of the existence of a secret conspiracy, throughout the world, for the destruction of organized government and the letting loose of evil." Christian Science Monitor editorial, June 19th, l920
1922 – (and After) - Profits rose, and with the Federal Reserve's ability to lend ten times more than their reserves, credit was easily obtained. From 1923 to 1929, $8 billion was sliced off of the deficit. The Reserve expanded the money supply by 62%, and this excess money was used to bid the stock market up to fantastic heights. The media began publicizing that there was an enormous profit to be made from the stock market. This push was planned at a meeting of the International Bankers in 1926, who made the boom possible, and who was going to bring about financial disaster later.
1928 - The House hearings on the Stabilization of the Purchasing Power of the Dollar, revealed that the Federal Reserve Board had met with the heads of various European central banks at a secret luncheon in 1927 to plan what they believed may be a major crash.
6 February 1929 – The Federal Reserve reversed it’s monetary policy by raising the discount rate following a trip to the United States by Montagu Norman, head of the Bank of England, to meet with Andrew Mellon, the Secretary of Treasury
March 1929 - Paul Warburg had issued a tip in, Illuminati members, who knew what the future held, got their money out of the stock market, reinvesting it in gold and silver. In the year before the crash, 500 banks failed.
24 October 1929, the New York banking establishment began calling in their loans, forcing their customers to sell stock at ridiculously low prices in order to pay off the loans. Stock prices fell by 90%, and U.S. Securities lost $26 billion. Thousands of smaller banks and insurance companies went bankrupt, and people who had been millionaires, were now broke. To prolong the depression after the crash, from 1929 to 1933, the Reserve began to reducing the money flow by one-third.
The Great Depression, as it became known, was engineered by the Illuminati to take money from the people, and to make them dependent on the Government through the subsequent New Deal programs of Roosevelt. Congressman Louis T. McFadden, Chairman of the House Banking and Currency Committee said: "It was no accident. It was a carefully contrived occurrence...The International Bankers sought to bring about a condition of despair here so they might emerge as the rulers of us all."
To a limited extent, this same method was used to create minor "depressions" in 1937, 1948, 1953, 1956, 1960, 1966, 1970, and 1979.
29 October 1929 – 16,419,000 shares turned over and Billions in values lost as market breaks third time. Many forced to unload especially newly formed investment trusts. Fact is that shares were offered in huge blocks and prices crumbled as rapidly as on any previous day since the crash started. The stock exchange decided against action in the crash. Mr. Thomas W. Lamont stated in a statement to the press; “The committee carefully considered the present situations but failed to find that any action was necessary consequently adjourning until the regular meeting tomorrow.” It is reported that following the governors meeting, Mr. Lamont reiterated that the banker are co-operating to stabilize the market as a group, but that no effort was being made to stop the decline abortively. He added that the individual bankers were not “unloading” themselves as has been hinted. The collapse in the U.S. has a depressing influence on the European stock market, due to heavy liquidation by American Holders. American capital had been for some time been increasingly engaged in European industrial investment. [The Front Page; From the International Herald Tribune 1887-1980; P. 61; New York Herald Tribune; Paris, Sunday, March 13, 1939, 51st year, No 18, 423].
30 October 1929 – Wall Street Collapse Sends Prices Down on Exchanges Here: European Industrials Suffer by liquidation of U.S. Holdings. The collapse of the Wall Street Stock market had a depressing influence on the leading European stock exchanges yesterday. This was felt in varying degrees and for various reasons, the most seriously affecting being Amsterdam. On all European bourses American stocks followed closely the Wall Street trend, while Anglo-American and Canadian stocks quoted in Capel Court were big losers on the day. On the Paris and Berlin bourses the leading French and German industrials were marked down appreciably, owing to heavy liquidation by American holders. For some time American capital has been increasingly engaged in European industrial investment, ……[The Front Page; From the International Herald Tribune 1887-1980; P. 61; New York Herald Tribune; Paris, Sunday, March 13, 1939, 51st year, No 18, 423].
21 November 1933 – A letter written by FDR to Colonel House, "The depression was the calculated 'shearing' of the public by the World Money powers, triggered by the planned sudden shortage of supply of call money in the New York money market....The One World Government leaders and their ever close bankers have now acquired full control of the money and credit machinery of the U.S. via the creation of the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank." Curtis Dall, FDR's son-in-law as quoted in his book, My Exploited Father-in-Law.
Same letter by FDR 1933 - A letter written by FDR to Colonel Hourse; "The real truth of the matter is, as you and I know, that a financial element in the larger centers has owned the Government ever since the days of Andrew Jackson."
Keynes was a well-trained economist and he was always wrong. Krugman is a Keynesian.
That's all you need to know about Krugman.
Krugman has a very narrow area of expertise in which he is well respected. Outside of that area he is a flaming kook.
I know nothing about economics, but I can predict that the U.S. economy will swirl the bowl once the Dems take over. Trust me on this. :)
Natural? Our economy is micromanaged by the Federal Reserve. There is nothing natural about it.
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