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Home prices drop 17 percent [Florida]
Herald Tribune ^ | 11/29/2006 | Stephen Frater and Michael Pollick

Posted on 11/29/2006 6:44:22 PM PST by ex-Texan

Prices remain the story in home sales, with Sarasota-Bradenton prices falling 18 percent in October, the second biggest drop in the state.

The median sales price in the Sarasota-Bradenton market was $277,900 last month, compared with $340,700 during the same month in booming 2005.

The Charlotte County-North Port market was not far behind, with a drop of 17 percent, from $243,900 to $202,800.

Only Fort Myers-Cape Coral took a bigger fall, posting a 44 percent decline in median sales price, from $445,100 to $249,200, the Florida Association of Realtors reported on Tuesday.

The median is the point where half the homes sold for more and half for less.

Those numbers came against the backdrop of a national decline in sales price of 3.5 percent, to $221,000, the biggest year-over-year drop on record. It marked the third straight month that prices have fallen nationally, the longest stretch on record.

Home price have been declining in Sarasota-Bradenton since June.

Sellers are giving ground on prices, recognizing that in a local and national market flooded with listings, how much you ask for your home is one of the few ways to differentiate yourself from the competition.

"It's often a matter of educating the sellers that in order to move their property, they've got to give on the price," said Brandy Coffey of Sarasota's Good Life Realty.

Many buyers are well-acquainted with that fact.

After looking at about 40 homes in the $800,000 to $1 million range, Craig Aberle and his wife just landed a deal in a south Sarasota golf course community.

The house they are buying was on the market for about a year, and they were able to get it for 20 percent less than the sellers were asking a year ago.

"They wanted to move," said Aberle, who will close before the end of the year. "They were reluctant to take our offer, which was a strong offer, mostly cash. But we said, 'Look, this is all we are willing to spend, and there are several other houses.'

"You're in a position where, if you want to be aggressive, you can play the sellers off against each other."

Aberle took his own haircut earlier this year when he sold in New Jersey: "We sold for 10 percent less than it would have been in 2005."

Yetta Levitt knows exactly what she is doing as she attempts to market her own spacious waterfront home in the Nokomis subdivision of Sorrento Woods for $850,000.

It is on the Internet with pictures and arrows; Levitt is offering a bonus to the selling agent; she will provide a full mortgage with only 5 percent down.

The problem is there aren't many buyers floating around.

"All I can say is nothing in my neighborhood is moving," Levitt said, noting that one of the less expensive, nonwaterfront homes in her 210-home subdivision sold last month for $410,000. "Prior to that sale, I believe the last sale was November 2005."

The numbers released Tuesday back up Levitt's theme.

In the Sarasota-Bradenton market, 24 percent fewer homes sold this October than October 2005. Sales were virtually flat in Charlotte County-North Port: 226 compared with 225 in 2005.

The Florida Association of Realtors noted that Hurricane Wilma struck Southwest and South Florida during the last week of October 2005, and that the storm's disruption likely reduced the number of sales in many communities.

If activity had been normal, the drop in sales would have been even more pronounced.

Sales nationally edged up 0.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.24 million in October. It was the first monthly increase after seven consecutive months of declines.

Meanwhile, Florida's total sales dropped 22 percent, from 16,407 in October 2005 to 12,773 last month.

'About right'

Some Realtors said the price drop during October is what is to be expected in a market where listings have multiplied from the heady days of the real estate market of the last three years, a time when homes moved in a matter of days.

Pricing in 2005 represented historic highs for the region, said Tom Heatherman, a spokesman for Michael Saunders & Co.

"We have experienced some double digit declines, but we are backing off what were historic increases over the previous years," Heatherman said.

Chad Roffers, president of Sarasota-based Sky Sotheby's Realty, said the price decline goes hand in hand with slowing sales.

"An 18 percent decrease feels about right. We're seeing unit sales down by a third across the board and prices off by 20 percent from the peak in mid-2005," said Chad Roffers, president of Sarasota-based Sky Sotheby's.

"We are seeing a 'liquidity point' at values similar to those that existed in the fourth quarter of 2004. Those sellers who accept that level of value are seeing action. Those who hold out for 2005 prices are not."

Budge Huskey, president and chief operating officer of Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate, agreed.

"These results should not come as a surprise. Price is a function of inventory levels, which have risen across the board," Huskey said, adding that "in some areas we're starting to see inventory levels stabilize or flatten out, although we're not at a point where we've reached equilibrium."

Huskey said pricing is the key: "Aggressive pricing and positioning are important right now for sellers."

He is not convinced that prices are done declining. "Sell now; you may get less in three months than today."

Coldwell Banker has closed 15 of the Florida offices that Huskey oversees from Sarasota, bringing the total to about 160. Real estate agents working for the company, meanwhile, total about 6,800, down 5.5 percent from 7,200 last year.

Homes were not the only part of the housing sector taking a hit in October.

Sales of condominiums in the Sarasota-Bradenton market were off 51 percent from the same time a year ago. The median sales price dropped 27 percent, from $294,000 to $216,000.

"Condos always go belly up when economy gets sluggish," said Barbara Anson of Manatee County's Wagner Realty.

Charlotte County-North Port saw a 24 percent drop in sales, but pricing in the market, which has few condos to offer, was difficult to use as any accurate gauge.

Anson said the 18 percent drop in home prices during October "was caused by homes in the region being overpriced," and she said the same is true across other classes of property.

"We now have to come back to reality," she said. "I am explaining to my sellers in Myakka that the bubble has busted. They're not going to get $350,000-$400,000 for a 10-acre parcel like they used to. They'll get $200,000."

Anson is seeing a lot of "half-backs," people who have moved halfway back north to places like Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee, where lower-priced housing is more readily available.

"We've priced ourselves out of the market and it'll take at least a year to get it corrected," she said. "I tell my clients, 'Don't think some Yankee will come down here and buy your property just because it's in Florida.'"

Chuck Edwards and his wife, a pair of those halfbacks, have been wheeling and dealing in Sarasota residential property for 13 years.

They decided last year to cash in their chips and move to coastal South Carolina.

Edwards still has eight Sarasota-Bradenton properties that he wants to sell.

He has been trying to sell 2408 Riverbluff Parkway for more than a year.

At first, he asked for $305,900 on this 55-and-older community home with boat docks available to owners. Now the price is $285,000 as a straight sale.

"We bought it right at the tail end of when the market was going crazy, where all you had to do was put a little two-by-five sign out there and somebody would buy it right away," Edwards said.

To make his Riverbluff Parkway house more palatable in today's tough market, Edwards is also making it available at a higher price of $289,500 for those who want to lease with an option to buy within a year.

"We are offering a lease option for it and any property we have, except for the personal house.

"I need to cash out of that."


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: abuseofketwords; abuseofkeywords; alasandalack; andagonyonme; anguish; blatantkeywordabuse; brokenrecord; bubbles; depression; despair; despondent; doom; dustbowl; florida; gloom; grapesofwrath; helpme; housing; housingbubble; ihaterealtors; iluvwilliegreen; imtomjoad; misery; prophetofdoom; realestate; runawayrunaway; skyisfalling; slitmywrist; votequimby; williegreenismyhero; woeisme
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To: GodGunsGuts; Toddsterpatriot; nopardons; Mase; Torie; Fan of Fiat; 1035rep; jennyjenny; ...
Unless they are relying on faulty inflation measures.

I've never seen such hubris, even from a goldbug. You're saying the entire bond market is wrong, because they don't agree with your measure of inflation?

221 posted on 12/03/2006 2:50:02 PM PST by Petronski (I just love that woman.)
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To: Petronski

We have been in the mist of a worst economy in our history, or so I have been told.


222 posted on 12/03/2006 2:56:20 PM PST by Always Right
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To: ex-Texan
"Condos always go belly up when economy gets sluggish,"

I didn't know that. However, that explains the mass of condos for sale in Austin and Houston. I was wondering why?

223 posted on 12/03/2006 3:03:25 PM PST by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: M. Espinola
House prices are far beyond any historically known relationship to rents or salaries.

My biggest beef about housing prices. No way one can remain financially solvent and pay 50% of one's income toward housing. You're headed for the poor house if you do.

224 posted on 12/03/2006 3:05:46 PM PST by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

So a family making $10K a month can't live on the 5K after housing (50%), but a family making 3K a month can live on the $2K (33%) no problem?


225 posted on 12/03/2006 3:09:51 PM PST by Fan of Fiat
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To: Always Right
Well (sic) I am sick of the lies from the gloom and doomer crowd.

I am sick of the lies you and Petronski keep disseminating trying to convince people all is well. Must have a vested interest to keep doing so. No one would spend hours posting on this subject unless they were to have a vested interest. I do and don't hide it. I don't think things can continue to be hyperinflated like they've been. If the hyperinflated housing prices continue...we're going to see severe economic impact one way or another.

226 posted on 12/03/2006 3:10:07 PM PST by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: Always Right

Draw a trend line of support on that chart you deceiver. It has "clearly" broken the trend line of suport on the bottom which is a definite negative sign. Of course, most people on FR don't know how to draw a trend line much less interpret it. So, go ahead posting your deception. It is going to catch with you and your buds sooner or later.


227 posted on 12/03/2006 3:12:19 PM PST by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
I don't think things can continue to be hyperinflated like they've been. If the hyperinflated housing prices continue...we're going to see severe economic impact one way or another.

Home prices did rise too fast, but this correction put it back on a more substainable level. I really don't see a severe economic impact. We have pretty much seen the worst. Home prices will start rising again later next year.

228 posted on 12/03/2006 3:14:26 PM PST by Always Right
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
Boston housing crash erases all gains since 2004 . . . in one month.

http://business.bostonherald.com/realestateNews/view.bg?articleid=169540

229 posted on 12/03/2006 3:21:52 PM PST by ex-Texan (Matthew 7: 1 - 6)
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To: GodGunsGuts; Petronski
My best advice is that you should stick to telling the planet about the good news about gold. There is a worldwide market for US bonds. The Fed would have a Sisyphean task driving the rate down to artificial levels even if it were dumb enough to try. What the inverted yield curve is predicting is a slowing economy, with inflation held in check (inter alia all those cheap Chinese goods). Ya, there is chat about the accuracy of the CPI index, but you have the integer value on the wrong side of the zero. The consensus is that it still overstates the true US inflation rate by a bit, even with the some of the corrections that have been made. It used to overstate the US inflation rate by close to 1%. The distortion might be down to 30-50 basis points now.
230 posted on 12/03/2006 4:32:32 PM PST by Torie
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To: ex-Texan
That drops prices back to May 2004 levels. It’s also the sharpest 12-month pullback since 1993.

Hmmm. This could get as bad as the great economic mega-recession of 1993.



Huh?

231 posted on 12/03/2006 5:33:22 PM PST by Petronski (I just love that woman.)
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To: Torie; Petronski

If the bond traders have gone along with the Clinton/Greenspan changes to the CPI, then there is a very good chance that they are underestimating inflation.


232 posted on 12/03/2006 6:17:48 PM PST by GodGunsGuts
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To: GodGunsGuts

There is a substantial body of economic literature on this CPI issue, both government and non-government. I don't know what your source is, but it seems to be at variance with those whom have some credibility in the field.


233 posted on 12/03/2006 6:24:02 PM PST by Torie
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To: GodGunsGuts

Not bond traders.

The entire bond market.





Funny part is, you don't understand the difference.


234 posted on 12/03/2006 6:53:03 PM PST by Petronski (I just love that woman.)
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To: Petronski

I was responding to Torie's post, genius.


235 posted on 12/03/2006 7:32:36 PM PST by GodGunsGuts
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To: GodGunsGuts
Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat ?

BWAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA


236 posted on 12/03/2006 7:33:39 PM PST by nopardons
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To: Petronski

Many thanks for the ping. That was THE funniest post to date! LOL


237 posted on 12/03/2006 7:34:57 PM PST by nopardons
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To: GodGunsGuts

I don't care if you were responding to Au, your shiny metal god. You're still wildly ignorant of economics.


238 posted on 12/03/2006 7:40:48 PM PST by Petronski (I just love that woman.)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
I am sick of the lies you and Petronski keep disseminating trying to convince people all is well.

You're a coward and a liar.

239 posted on 12/03/2006 7:42:02 PM PST by Petronski (I just love that woman.)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
I am sick of the lies you and Petronski keep disseminating trying to convince people all is well.

Oh, and in your heart of hearts, you're hungry for the opportunity to engage in religious persecution.

240 posted on 12/03/2006 7:43:51 PM PST by Petronski (I just love that woman.)
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