[Torie]

My best advice is that you should stick to telling the planet about the good news about gold. There is a worldwide market for US bonds. The Fed would have a Sisyphean task driving the rate down to artificial levels even if it were dumb enough to try. What the inverted yield curve is predicting is a slowing economy, with inflation held in check (inter alia all those cheap Chinese goods). Ya, there is chat about the accuracy of the CPI index, but you have the integer value on the wrong side of the zero. The consensus is that it still overstates the true US inflation rate by a bit, even with the some of the corrections that have been made. It used to overstate the US inflation rate by close to 1%. The distortion might be down to 30-50 basis points now.

[GodGunsGuts]

If the bond traders have gone along with the Clinton/Greenspan changes to the CPI, then there is a very good chance that they are underestimating inflation.