Posted on 11/09/2006 4:58:44 AM PST by Leroy S. Mort
WASHINGTON (AP) - The Republican Party ceded the center of American politics and its many groups of swing voters to the Democratic Party in the 2006 midterm elections - with predictable results.
The GOP lost the House and the Senate.
Republicans lost badly among independent voters, suburbanites, white Catholics, the middle class and Hispanics - groups it had been courting successfully in recent years, exit polls found.
``The one thing that is so frustrating is when you hear the Karl Roves and Ken Mehlmans talking about focusing on the base because there are no swing voters,'' said GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio, who says there are still plenty of swing voters.
A fourth of voters this year were independents, according to exit polls, and they voted heavily for Democratic candidates.
Fabrizio was referring to Rove, top White House political strategist, and Mehlman, chairman of the Republican National Committee.
Mehlman's spokeswoman, Tracey Schmitt, countered that the RNC chairman has been working hard for the last couple of years to expand the party ``to expand the number of swing voters who call themselves Republicans.''
Using a playbook that has served them well over the past few elections, the administration and GOP strategists turned out Republicans and conservatives at the usual levels.
``The Republican base turned out and held,'' said Whit Ayres, a GOP strategist. ``To generate a Republican turnout in this climate was remarkable. ... But for the first time in a decade, independents preferred Democratic over Republican House candidates, this time by 18 points.''
Anger at the Bush administration and its war in Iraq drove part of this shift toward Democrats, exit polls found.
The evaporation of the political center had Republican strategists searching for answers. Many acknowledged that the party is not likely to regain ground with swing voters as long as the war in Iraq drags on. The exit polls found heavy opposition to the war from voters who cast their ballots for Democrats.
``Republicans are going to have to look at how to rebuild this coalition,'' said GOP strategist David Winston.
Some Republicans didn't want to acknowledge publicly that the midterm losses and loss of the political center to the Democrats are very large political problems.
``It comes from mistakenly believing you can own an issue forever - terrorism,'' Fabrizio said. ``It's mistaking voters going along with you on a single issue with a political realignment.''
More than two-thirds of voters said terrorism was very important in their vote on Tuesday, and they divided their support between Democrats and Republicans.
Among the swing groups that tilted heavily toward Democrats:
Independents backed Democrats by 57-39 - after voting for the GOP by 48-45 in 2002.
Moderates backed Democrats by 60-38 - after voting Democratic 53-45 in 2002.
Suburbanites backed Democrats by 50-48 - after voting for the GOP 57-40 in 2002.
Those in the middle class - those who make more than $30,000 a year but less than $75,000 a year - backed Democrats 52-45 after more than half supported the GOP in 2002.
Hispanics backed Democrats 69-30 - after backing Democrats 61-37 in 2002.
The 2006 results come from a national exit poll of 13,208 voters conducted for The Associated Press and television networks by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.
Results for the full sample were subject to sampling error of plus or minus 1 percentage point, higher for subgroups.
The loss of the swing voters and the political center may be only a temporary setback for the GOP.
``It wouldn't surprise me to see them come back and vote for a Republican for president in 2008,'' said Ayres. ``That depends on who's nominated and whether things change in Iraq.''
AP polling director Mike Mokrzycki, AP manager of news surveys Trevor Tompson and AP news survey specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this story.
We had been winning them for a decade, but this time, we lost em. Why? They were sick if Iraq. Thats it. Nothing else really mattered. Had Iraq rebuilt itself a year ago and we had been able to pull out and everything went ok, Republicans would have won. I hear alot of whining about Republicans not being Conservative enough, and personally, I AGREE with that assessment, but I am not so sure the swing voters gave a cr*p about that.
Protracted? Iraq?
Americans had better grow a pair and send the missiles up now or learn to handle it or they will be marching to a different 'conservatism': Sha'ria.
This isn't Vietnam. They attacked us. They are used to protracted conflict, and they won't quit just because we do.
When you can't tell the difference between Dems and Repubs something is wrong.
"hold on to base" = "base voting AGAINST Democrats, not FOR Republicans" (that is essentially what I did)
Conservatism wins big (1980,1994) nonconservatism loses or wins barely (1996,2000,2004) but with that said, it has to be done in a way that appeals to the individualistic nature of the American people.
You generalize big-time and I think gloss over the zeit geist of these elections. In 1980 Reagan won because any Bozo who offered a positive message would have beaten Carter's disastrous 4 years and pessimistic view of America. The economy was in the tank and Carter said it was our fault. The New Morning in America was a winner. Further, Reagan did have his list of "non-conservative" actions as well but he did run on conservative ideals even if all his actions as President didn't follow all those ideals. Then in 1994 I believe we benefited from Clinton remorse as well as the Contract with America. Clinton's first big issue was gays in the military and the socialization and intrusion into the health care system. There was plenty of Democrat corruptions from being the party in charge to sweeten the election too. Again, 1994 was a mid-term election and the usual voter impatience was easily capitalized on by Newt.
Let's just take this as the pause that refreshes and find our identity again.
Agreed. What to do about Iraq? Do we support privatizing Social Security? What will we counter the Dems push for nationalized health care with? When families have to pay hundreds of dollars a week for coverage will we succeed with a message of "tough it out"? When ridiculously priced college tuition costs bankrupt graduates and families, do we give them the "tough it out" message again? What's our identity on these specific middle class pocketbook issues? How do we avoid the Democratic lure of socialism? To quote Bush, "A litany of complaints is not a plan"
That is absolutely correct.
The hawkish, fiscally conservative middle was sending the message that they are tired of using government to further a "moral" agenda. They are also FED UP with the obvious corruption...amplified by the media...of the GOP in congress. They want real immigration enforcement and "FAIR" trade which would keep more good manufacturing jobs at home.
There are millions of these voters and the GOP will be forced to adopt a more socially liberal platform to win their vote...and any hope of a majority or the Whitehouse. Social Conservativism, alone, will not prevail. That base is perhaps 20% of the electorate.
Once dims took abortion and gay marriage off the table with "conservative" candidates, the Republican majority crumbled. SOME social conservatives felt free to vote for either party...perhaps enuff to decide more than a few races.
Another thing I noticed, Hispanics voted for dems, too. Are you listening, President Bush? What really surprised me the most was that Asians voted for the dems. I am taking it that Asians would be mostly Oriental. Big business, which according to the exit polls, went mostly Repub. So it just doesn't make sense.
Not only a turn from traditional conservative values, but war usually sucks. The war in Iraq sucks worse than most. I don't think Bush is a very good war president, nor does he have tact to bring others into the fold with us.
"You're either with us or against us"? Please, give me a break.
And it seemed like everyone forgot that the Congress was made up of almost half democrats. They got a complete pass. I'm not an expert but I'd say what happened is the same thing that always happens in the 6th year of a 2 term president. The opposing party always wins. The media is making a big deal out of it cause its Booosh!
We lost this when Bush landed on the aircraft carrier and proclaimed the end of major vombat operations. Since that time our work in Iraq has not been a war and we should stop calling it one. There was a counterinsurgency and we have been working on pacification. We have lots of troops around the world in dangerous hot spots and don't get grief over them. Stop calling the Iraq mission a war.
People are so diverse, now. Things will never be like they were when figuring out your base was easy. Thats why the one issue voters throw a monkey wrench into things. Everyone wants it their way or the highway. They don't stop to think that the candidates are having to appeal to a wider base, now. The country is definitely moving to the center and as long as we demand that a candidate just cater to us only, we are going to lose.
Thats it, right there. I think the base is going to have to bend a little or become insignificant.
We lost this when Bush landed on the aircraft carrier and proclaimed the end of major combat operations, but the left ridiculed it. Since that time our work in Iraq has not been a war, and we should stop calling it one. There was a counterinsurgency and we have been working on pacification. We have lots of troops around the world in dangerous hot spots and don't get grief over them. Stop calling the Iraq mission a war when it is not, anymore.
We lost this when Bush landed on the aircraft carrier and proclaimed the end of major combat operations, but the left ridiculed it. Since that time our work in Iraq has not been a war, and we should stop calling it one. There was a counterinsurgency and we have been working on pacification. We have lots of troops around the world in dangerous hot spots and don't get grief over them. Stop calling the Iraq mission a war when it is not, anymore.
I think the base isn't as clearly defined as they think they are. For some the base is social conservatism -only...for others the base is much broader and includes more economic principles.
I think they are incorrect about the base holding.
yea the base held, held it's nose and voted. But the Reagan democrats, working middle class didn't. Seems sending all thier jobs overseas so we can have cheap Chicom crap at wal-mart does not impress them. Whoa thunk it.
They didn't follow us home from Vietnam. But the Muslims will follow us home from Iraq if we quit. The Muslims already have a 5th column in this country. - tom
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