Posted on 11/09/2006 4:58:44 AM PST by Leroy S. Mort
WASHINGTON (AP) - The Republican Party ceded the center of American politics and its many groups of swing voters to the Democratic Party in the 2006 midterm elections - with predictable results.
The GOP lost the House and the Senate.
Republicans lost badly among independent voters, suburbanites, white Catholics, the middle class and Hispanics - groups it had been courting successfully in recent years, exit polls found.
``The one thing that is so frustrating is when you hear the Karl Roves and Ken Mehlmans talking about focusing on the base because there are no swing voters,'' said GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio, who says there are still plenty of swing voters.
A fourth of voters this year were independents, according to exit polls, and they voted heavily for Democratic candidates.
Fabrizio was referring to Rove, top White House political strategist, and Mehlman, chairman of the Republican National Committee.
Mehlman's spokeswoman, Tracey Schmitt, countered that the RNC chairman has been working hard for the last couple of years to expand the party ``to expand the number of swing voters who call themselves Republicans.''
Using a playbook that has served them well over the past few elections, the administration and GOP strategists turned out Republicans and conservatives at the usual levels.
``The Republican base turned out and held,'' said Whit Ayres, a GOP strategist. ``To generate a Republican turnout in this climate was remarkable. ... But for the first time in a decade, independents preferred Democratic over Republican House candidates, this time by 18 points.''
Anger at the Bush administration and its war in Iraq drove part of this shift toward Democrats, exit polls found.
The evaporation of the political center had Republican strategists searching for answers. Many acknowledged that the party is not likely to regain ground with swing voters as long as the war in Iraq drags on. The exit polls found heavy opposition to the war from voters who cast their ballots for Democrats.
``Republicans are going to have to look at how to rebuild this coalition,'' said GOP strategist David Winston.
Some Republicans didn't want to acknowledge publicly that the midterm losses and loss of the political center to the Democrats are very large political problems.
``It comes from mistakenly believing you can own an issue forever - terrorism,'' Fabrizio said. ``It's mistaking voters going along with you on a single issue with a political realignment.''
More than two-thirds of voters said terrorism was very important in their vote on Tuesday, and they divided their support between Democrats and Republicans.
Among the swing groups that tilted heavily toward Democrats:
Independents backed Democrats by 57-39 - after voting for the GOP by 48-45 in 2002.
Moderates backed Democrats by 60-38 - after voting Democratic 53-45 in 2002.
Suburbanites backed Democrats by 50-48 - after voting for the GOP 57-40 in 2002.
Those in the middle class - those who make more than $30,000 a year but less than $75,000 a year - backed Democrats 52-45 after more than half supported the GOP in 2002.
Hispanics backed Democrats 69-30 - after backing Democrats 61-37 in 2002.
The 2006 results come from a national exit poll of 13,208 voters conducted for The Associated Press and television networks by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.
Results for the full sample were subject to sampling error of plus or minus 1 percentage point, higher for subgroups.
The loss of the swing voters and the political center may be only a temporary setback for the GOP.
``It wouldn't surprise me to see them come back and vote for a Republican for president in 2008,'' said Ayres. ``That depends on who's nominated and whether things change in Iraq.''
AP polling director Mike Mokrzycki, AP manager of news surveys Trevor Tompson and AP news survey specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this story.
No I took it they were wasting their time on flag burning ammendments and bridges to nowhere rather than taking care of border security, social security, controlling the budget and providing oversight on the war in Iraq (i.e., maybe we need to bring in more troops, brutally kill off Mustafa Al Sadr and his militia and anyone related to them, then accept the soft partition of Iraq and leave).
They'll come back. Right after they notice that the numbers under the words "Net" on their paycheck has changed for the worse. The only reason the dems won is because they kept totally silent about what they planned to do with the power the people gave them.
Not if the base continues to make the tent smaller.
"``The Republican base turned out and held,'' said Whit Ayres, a GOP strategist"
There is a guy that needs fired. Someone that takes hard lessons and twists them around to justify a losing agenda. How Clintonesque.
I don't think the base is too thrilled with simply choosing the lesser of two evils, however.
Well isn't that what is being proposed...toss out compassionate conservatism, return to the base's "principles" etc. It sounded like contraction rather than expansion - no attack, just an observation. No offense intended.
I wish the he** this idea of Independent voters would just shut the F*** up. They are not and, there is no such a thing as an Independent voter, they are Democrats, nothing more or nothing less. I watch the senate and I watch the house when they are in session. I watch the voting from both sides of the isles and the so call Independent always votes democrat.
So lets call a spade what it is and drop this word Independent and call it what it is, Democrat!!!!!!!!!!!
I know what you mean. Being in Missouri, I got over 30 ROBO-Calls during the week before the election. All but one from Republican organizations. As for the vaunted 72 hour program, I never received one of those person to person calls that they pride themselves on, even though I'm a registered Republican in Jim Talent's old congressional district. ROBO-calls are a waste. I dont need Pat Boone and Gary Bauer telling me how to vote. Laura Bush, however can call me as often as she wants. :_)
And - Hillary Clinton is no moderate and her "common ground" is a swamp.
Now you know why "political" calls are exempt from the National Do Not Call Registry...........
Returning to principle will gain us voters. Compassionate conservatism is a loser. In exit polls Republicans were identified as the party of big government by an 11 point margin.
It's only a contradiction if you believe the swing voters are socialists. I do not.
LOL! What are you smoking this morning?
Homosexuals backed the socialist 100-0 after backing them 105-0 in the last election.
Communists backed the socialist dims 100-0 after backing them 105-0 in the last election.
Dead people backed the socialists 100-0 after backing them 100-0 in the last election.
The French backed the socialist 100-0 after backing them 100-0 in the last election.
Illegals backed the dims 100-0 after backing them 100-0 in the last election.
The stupids, baby makers, drunks, felons, drug addicts, wannabees, has beens, bums, drop outs, backed the socialists 100-0 after backing them 100-0 in the past elections.
Just wanted the total voting record made public. /sarcasm still on.
"Liberty voter has been pushed out .....
They'll come back. Right after they notice that the numbers under the words "Net" on their paycheck has changed for the worse. The only reason the dems won is because they kept totally silent about what they planned to do with the power the people gave them."
I wouldn't rely on that strategy. Minimum wage earners will likely get increases. They know that the GOP will fight this and the DNC supports it. There are millions of folks in that category. Same with welfare, etc.
Also, you don't consider certain demographics. Take the IT industry in WV. It is about to explode with unprecedented growth. We now have the chair of both appropriations committees, who are dedicated to dumping as much money and programs in here as the system will bear. This means alot in a poor state like WV, who was starting to turn Republican (key in the last few elections). Now, it will likely become a DNC stronghold once again.
You know how much the Democrats hate Bush and big business... If Bush wants open borders the Dems might just want to close them down out of spite!!( OK it's just a thought) There might be a bright light here somewhere..
I disagree with your assessment. I think the war was the big factor (with some exceptions). I don't think people were necessarily voting against "big government". Of course Republicans were identified with big government, they were the government. Swing voters are only socialists when they are hurting. The economy has been good so that wasn't a factor now. Compassionate conservatism is a loser NOW. It was a winner in 2000. The times were different then.
LOL! Dems for closed borders.
Dude, put down the bong.
So nice of themselves to stand up for THEIR rights. :-)
OF course the war was a factor and given the closeness - if it wasn't for the war, we'd still have the Senate at least. Heck, if we didn't spend so much money in Rhode Island, we might still have the Senate.
And no compassionate conservatism was not a winner in 2000. Clinton fatigue was the factor - and even that was only good for 48.5% of the popular vote.
Conservatism wins big (1980,1994) nonconservatism loses or wins barely (1996,2000,2004) but with that said, it has to be done in a way that appeals to the individualistic nature of the American people.
Let's just take this as the pause that refreshes and find our identity again.
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