Posted on 11/09/2006 4:58:44 AM PST by Leroy S. Mort
WASHINGTON (AP) - The Republican Party ceded the center of American politics and its many groups of swing voters to the Democratic Party in the 2006 midterm elections - with predictable results.
The GOP lost the House and the Senate.
Republicans lost badly among independent voters, suburbanites, white Catholics, the middle class and Hispanics - groups it had been courting successfully in recent years, exit polls found.
``The one thing that is so frustrating is when you hear the Karl Roves and Ken Mehlmans talking about focusing on the base because there are no swing voters,'' said GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio, who says there are still plenty of swing voters.
A fourth of voters this year were independents, according to exit polls, and they voted heavily for Democratic candidates.
Fabrizio was referring to Rove, top White House political strategist, and Mehlman, chairman of the Republican National Committee.
Mehlman's spokeswoman, Tracey Schmitt, countered that the RNC chairman has been working hard for the last couple of years to expand the party ``to expand the number of swing voters who call themselves Republicans.''
Using a playbook that has served them well over the past few elections, the administration and GOP strategists turned out Republicans and conservatives at the usual levels.
``The Republican base turned out and held,'' said Whit Ayres, a GOP strategist. ``To generate a Republican turnout in this climate was remarkable. ... But for the first time in a decade, independents preferred Democratic over Republican House candidates, this time by 18 points.''
Anger at the Bush administration and its war in Iraq drove part of this shift toward Democrats, exit polls found.
The evaporation of the political center had Republican strategists searching for answers. Many acknowledged that the party is not likely to regain ground with swing voters as long as the war in Iraq drags on. The exit polls found heavy opposition to the war from voters who cast their ballots for Democrats.
``Republicans are going to have to look at how to rebuild this coalition,'' said GOP strategist David Winston.
Some Republicans didn't want to acknowledge publicly that the midterm losses and loss of the political center to the Democrats are very large political problems.
``It comes from mistakenly believing you can own an issue forever - terrorism,'' Fabrizio said. ``It's mistaking voters going along with you on a single issue with a political realignment.''
More than two-thirds of voters said terrorism was very important in their vote on Tuesday, and they divided their support between Democrats and Republicans.
Among the swing groups that tilted heavily toward Democrats:
Independents backed Democrats by 57-39 - after voting for the GOP by 48-45 in 2002.
Moderates backed Democrats by 60-38 - after voting Democratic 53-45 in 2002.
Suburbanites backed Democrats by 50-48 - after voting for the GOP 57-40 in 2002.
Those in the middle class - those who make more than $30,000 a year but less than $75,000 a year - backed Democrats 52-45 after more than half supported the GOP in 2002.
Hispanics backed Democrats 69-30 - after backing Democrats 61-37 in 2002.
The 2006 results come from a national exit poll of 13,208 voters conducted for The Associated Press and television networks by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.
Results for the full sample were subject to sampling error of plus or minus 1 percentage point, higher for subgroups.
The loss of the swing voters and the political center may be only a temporary setback for the GOP.
``It wouldn't surprise me to see them come back and vote for a Republican for president in 2008,'' said Ayres. ``That depends on who's nominated and whether things change in Iraq.''
AP polling director Mike Mokrzycki, AP manager of news surveys Trevor Tompson and AP news survey specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this story.
Read it and weep.
Guilty.
I'm really sorry that your govenment over promised you and didn't come clean about it.
We are nearing 70 trillion in debt (including unfunded liabilities). Either taxes need to double or we need to reign in entitlements. Or we can just ignore the problem, win elections and wait for the bill to come due. Whoever is in office at that time goes the way of the Whigs.
For me it's quickly becoming not about Left vs. Right but Truth vs. Lies - and right now, almost everyone is lying.
Once socialism starts, there is no stopping it. Government shouldn't even be in the healthcare or college tuition business. There's the key. But since some politian at some point chose to make it a government issue, now its thought of as a government problem. Its not! We need to somehow figure out a way to start moving these issues back to the people. First you have to educate the people that getting out of these issues means smaller government and that the prices would drop drastically if you go back to paying for your own healthcare and college tuition. Its the only way but it would be very hard.
We are nearing 70 trillion in debt (including unfunded liabilities). Either taxes need to double or we need to reign in entitlements. Or we can just ignore the problem, win elections and wait for the bill to come due.
That's exactly what has happened and will continue to happen. You confess to being young, YOU are going to really get stuck with the bill. Do you know what a voting block that baby boomers like me will be? Do you really think you will reign in entitlements? Sorry but that's hard truth. I very much supported privitization for your sake. You guys are going to be screwed with taxes and that's NO LIE.
You are right.
We lost because 25 million Republicans and 31 million Rats turned out to vote. Bush got 62 million votes in '04. That's 37 million missing Republican voters. Hell, the base could've stayed home if they had turned out.
Melhman, and don't even ask about Joann Davison, number 2 at RNC.....
Point taken.
Then the future is a failed welfare state, kind of like France or General Motors, because of bully voting by our most politically active age group.
If I believed that, I wouldn't be here. There would be no point to it.
Sorry, but returning to the past isn't going to cut it. Who will be the first to give up their check? Sorry I just don't see that as a winning issue. People wouldn't even take the risk of private social security accounts.
Where would you go?
Here is what people in Washington know, but don't tell us. About 35% of the country is hard core conservative. About 25% is hard core liberal. The Republicans have the upper hand usually in elections because of it. 40% in the middle are mostly idiots.
I will say it again; idiots. It may be too harsh. They are unaware. They do not know who Pelosi is, nor Hastert. They couldn't name the Secretary of State, let alone Transportation. They don't even know who controls the congress. Some here might think I am making this up, I am not. Most people can not name 2 supreme court justices. They can name 6 members of the Brady Bunch though. These are the folks who decide the elections. Period. People who go to work, are decent people, play with their kids, watch sit-coms, go to soccer practice, and pay zero attention to politics other than the political ads every 2 years during breaks from Wheel of Fortune.
These people decide the election. Period. Not our base, not the democratic base. These people.
A draft doesn't make sense, by the time you train the draftees, their time served is almost up. So I have practical and philosophical problems with a draft.
For decades our policy has been that we need to be able to fight two fronts at once if need be, and we aren't - or are in a minimilaist fashion.
My recommendation is to use the 1986 size as a blue print and then adjust from there based on the input of the military. I'm guessing more special ops, etc. And to pay for the recruiting bonuses, extra salaries, higher pay, etc. we'll need a either modest tax hike and spending restraint or both.
Nah, by here I meant FR.
Or in politics in general.
IF the GOP wants to be the majority party - they need to appeal to the majority of voters. It is not rocked science. The GOP needs new ideas and decent, honest politicians. They have two years to persuade the country that have listened to the people and changed accordingly.
I know. It would be very hard.
Well sorry you didn't like my entitlement projection but I saw how massively Social Security reform failed coming off a big political win in 2004. There was no Congressional effort on even finding a compromise or working out anything - this with a Republican Congress? Now with a Democratic Congress and huge numbers of baby boomers retiring what do you think will happen. Social security probably will be means tested but we will also have massive tax increases too. Do you speak French, my friend?
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