Posted on 11/05/2006 8:27:33 PM PST by Alex1977
HELENA - Montanans say they are slightly more likely to vote for Republicans than Democrats in the state's legislative races, a new Gazette State Poll shows.
By a margin of five points, 47 percent to 42 percent, voters said they were more likely to vote for Republicans. That edge is greater than the poll's margin of error - plus- or minus-4 points - but not so large that Republicans have a clear lead.
Only 11 percent of those surveyed said they weren't sure which party they would support.
The split reflects the makeup of the Montana Legislature. Currently, the state's 100-member House is evenly divided, with 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats. Democrats hold a 27-23 majority in the Senate. Control of the Legislature has been a bitterly fought, if overshadowed, battle this campaign.
The poll interviewed 625 registered voters between Oct. 31 and Nov. 2. It was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., of Washington, D.C., and paid for by Lee Newspapers of Montana.
The Gazette State Poll has included a similar question in polls dating to 1995. In Gazette polls in 2006, voters have consistently said they favor Republicans for the state Legislature, but the margin has been very close, between 1 and 5 percentage points.
The latest poll represents a narrow turn toward Republicans. An earlier survey conducted at the end of September showed 45 percent favoring Republicans and 42 percent going with Democrats.
But even large poll margins are no guarantee of victory on Election Day. In a Gazette State Poll conducted in October 2004, Republicans held a 12-point lead over Democrats for seats in the Legislature.
On Election Day, however, Democrats picked up several seats and won a majority in the Senate for the first time in 12 years.
People who identified themselves as independent voters gave a slight edge to Democrats in the latest poll.
Forty-two percent of independents said they intended to vote for the Democrat in the legislative race, compared with 38 percent who said they intended to vote for the Republican. Twenty percent of independents said they were undecided.
The poll also showed that men and women tend to vote differently.
Among men, 52 percent said they would Republican for the Legislature, compared with 37 percent who said they would vote Democratic. Eleven percent said they were undecided.
Among women, support for Republicans fell 10 points, down to 42 percent, with women giving a slight edge to Democrats, 47 percent. Eleven percent of women also said they were undecided.
I can't understand how a "liberal" could have an edge among women!
Does this mean Tester is toast?
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JOHN KERRY =
Pictures of a vietnamese Re-Education Camp
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I'm quite confident about Senate, not about Congress. Who do you think would win the fight in TX-District 22?
Sekula Gibbs keeps that seat as does Negron the Foley seat in Fla. Pelosi stated today that Dems will win 22-26 House seats. Gingrich thinks it will be either 15-16 or actually under the 15 needed. Who knows? The Senate will stay GOP by one or two seats.
More good news form Montana.
"Gingrich thinks it will be either 15-16 or actually under the 15 needed. Who knows? The Senate will stay GOP by one or two seats."
I'm with Gingrich.
It will be a long night, but Burns is going to win. I would guess that it will be decided by less than 5000 votes. (450,000 votes were cast in 2004's elections)
Battleground is Yellowstone County (Billings), as it always is in close races, and where the Rats have been at it. Automated telephone calls are illegal in MT, and yet they are taking place in Billings -- including one that reportedly has a message from Gov. Brian Schweitzer! I haven't seen proof of that one, yet, though, even though others have been documented.
Those lib women think big government will take care of them, because they don't think they can take care of themselves.
I've been hearing that Sekula Gibbs is in a dead heat even though she's a write in candidate. The DemocRATS must be afraid, because they're sending out mailings about a different "Republican" candidate in order to split the Republican vote.
There was an article in yesterday's Billings Gazette about "robo-calls", and they weren't taking place in Billings, but all over the state from both the Burns and Tester camps.
They're not illegal, they're just annoying, because they are exempt from the Do-Not Call list.
Why when we are ahead by 5 it is slightly but when the Dims are ahead 5, it is a landslide? (sarcasm) Liberal media has shown their true colors in this election cycle.
WOO-HOO for Montana and Burns.
Tester is about to get his comeuppance.
It means the days of Democrat rule in Helena are numbered. Schweitzer's goofy liberal agenda may be put on hold if the Republican's regain control of the Legislature. Tester's just been Schweitzer's sockpuppet ever since the Dummies took control of the Montana Legislature.
Schweitzer too if this trend holds.
Previous Gazette articles have said that they are illegal -- I didn't see the article to which you refer that says they aren't. Talking to people in other parts of MT, no-one else has gotten one -- only people in Billings. Just my own informal survey.
And if the Burns camp is doing it, that is a new one for me to hear about -- up until now, it has been a Dem game so far as I can tell. The GOP tends to have more live bodies to do the calling, it seems.
If the Republican's take control of Helena, I'd like them to do away with this tobacco tax increase that went into effect this year.
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