Posted on 11/05/2006 3:16:09 PM PST by Oakleaf
Boy, today's Mason Dixon polls do nothing to dissuade the notion of a late-breaking shift back to the Republicans.
As you know, I like to whack around pollsters like a pinata, but Mason-Dixon has a good reputation among political professionals - if they're not always right, they almost never give you a really wacky result. In 2004, they got 13 out of 14 swing states right at the presidential level (they put Bush up in Minnesota) and were pretty spot-on in their margin of victory.
Today, M-D puts Brown beating DeWine by 6 in Ohio. (Who was writing last night Ohio had turned into a single-digit race?) (Interestingly, they saw no tightening in Pennsylvania; Santorum went from -12 to -13.) Brown is still the favorite, but DeWine can take some solace in the fact that the numbers are turning his direction in these final days.
The real shocker is M-D has Chafee ahead by one point. I heard a Globe reporter saying the Democrats were worried about Rhode Island, and thought it was interesting but didn't quite buy it. Chafee had been down pretty big for a while. But as a buddy of mine noted, Chafee's a well-established, well-respected family name; those names don't often get blown out by 10 to 14 points. (I could see the argument that between a liberal Republican and a liberal Democrat, voters will pick the Democrat, but as we saw in the primary, Chafee's got a better connection to this community than we expected.) Everybody's had this one as an automatic Democratic pickup; if this seat slips through their fingers, it's like the number 15 team beating the number 2 team in the NCAA basketball tournament; it wrecks a lot of office pools.
M-D has Missouri close (surprise) but the trend is interesting, from McCaskill up 3 late last month to up 1. I'm hearing that Talent's internal numbers are fantastic - for whatever that's worth - and that the cloning referendum has the GOP base revved.
In Arizona, M-D has Jon Kyl up 8, suggesting that spending $1 million at the last minute may be a decision that Chuck Schumer comes to regret, particularly if a race like Rhode Island gets fumbled.
M-D concurs with the emerging consensus in Maryland, virtual tie; they have Cardin up 3 after having Cardin up 6 two weeks ago.
Montana's tied. Guess we know what had the Montana Democrats sweating earlier this week.
In Tennessee, M-D has Corker up 12, 50 percent to 38 percent. If Corker wins big, I'm going to want to rub Newsweek's noses in it for that glowing, heroic cover piece they ran on Harold Ford Jr. Anoint him the Golden Child after he's won, not before.
Worst sign for Republicans? Another poll showing Virginia nearly tied, M-D showing Webb by 1. It's gonna be a close race, and from my mailbag, the NoVa Democrats are fired up. Allen had better hope his get-out-the-vote effort works a heck of a lot better than the rest of his campaign has worked so far.
Because it does!!! This is no time to sit out an election no matter how angry someone is! Imagine those lunatic Democrats running the place!!!
"Here, in Chicago, my vote doesn't count for much but I'm voting anyhow (the way I always do.)"
Boy, you got that right. I'm going to hold my nose and vote for Judy Barr Topinka, under the axiom that any Republican will almost always be better than most Dems.
Chafee seems particularly unintelligent. Pathetic, but that R gives him so measure of protection this time.
Next primary work hard to get a better candidate.
Sad but that is the nature of politics. Specter has long been a dishonorable man and his vote on impeachment was bought and paid for with a job for his wife.
If Chafee loses, what happens to his committee seat (I believe he is in the judicial committee and has been holding up John BOlden for renomination to the UN as our ambassador?) WHO would take his seat - another republican or the guy who would beat him in RI?
Nothing will make me happier than to see Duckworth lose. What a disappointment she turned out to be. Trashing the war and insisting the money should have been spent on health care and education. And where have we heard that garbage before.
What could this moron be thinking?
Shoot, I will pull the lever with glee to stop Menendez.
Don't think about holding your nose. Spread the cheer and end Menendez and Corzine's reign of error.
"And not surprising, Arlen Specter has been the invisible man in this campaign. For some reason, Santorum campaigned his ass off for Specter last time, but Specter is nowhere to be found now."
Geez, considering how most Pubs feel about Specter, do you think it would somehow be a good idea for him to be appearing with Santorum. Nothing like bringing up a sore subject for Santorum. I'm sure Rick told Arlen, thanks, but no thanks, stay away, you can't help me here.
Yeah, I'm doing the same but not telling anyone.
It would be a media meltdown even sweeter than the ones in 1994 or 2000.
Well, ok, almost sweeter than those election years. :)
Election night is going to be big, of great importance. But now it's looking like the Democrats peaked about two weeks ago.
I am sorry but F&F's is unwatchable even on Sunday even with the sound off. It reminds me of Wayne's World with a set upgrade.
I am praying HARD and will vote on Tuesday. I just came back from knocking on doors.
I agree that it would be a "huge win"... but I don't agree the results are likely (and that prediction is 2-3 weeks old... a lifetime ago in political terms).
bump
People were already angry about how the democrats tried to set up the Foley case. Jon Carry will bring folk that have any respect at all for the military to the polls.
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