Posted on 11/05/2006 3:16:09 PM PST by Oakleaf
Boy, today's Mason Dixon polls do nothing to dissuade the notion of a late-breaking shift back to the Republicans.
As you know, I like to whack around pollsters like a pinata, but Mason-Dixon has a good reputation among political professionals - if they're not always right, they almost never give you a really wacky result. In 2004, they got 13 out of 14 swing states right at the presidential level (they put Bush up in Minnesota) and were pretty spot-on in their margin of victory.
Today, M-D puts Brown beating DeWine by 6 in Ohio. (Who was writing last night Ohio had turned into a single-digit race?) (Interestingly, they saw no tightening in Pennsylvania; Santorum went from -12 to -13.) Brown is still the favorite, but DeWine can take some solace in the fact that the numbers are turning his direction in these final days.
The real shocker is M-D has Chafee ahead by one point. I heard a Globe reporter saying the Democrats were worried about Rhode Island, and thought it was interesting but didn't quite buy it. Chafee had been down pretty big for a while. But as a buddy of mine noted, Chafee's a well-established, well-respected family name; those names don't often get blown out by 10 to 14 points. (I could see the argument that between a liberal Republican and a liberal Democrat, voters will pick the Democrat, but as we saw in the primary, Chafee's got a better connection to this community than we expected.) Everybody's had this one as an automatic Democratic pickup; if this seat slips through their fingers, it's like the number 15 team beating the number 2 team in the NCAA basketball tournament; it wrecks a lot of office pools.
M-D has Missouri close (surprise) but the trend is interesting, from McCaskill up 3 late last month to up 1. I'm hearing that Talent's internal numbers are fantastic - for whatever that's worth - and that the cloning referendum has the GOP base revved.
In Arizona, M-D has Jon Kyl up 8, suggesting that spending $1 million at the last minute may be a decision that Chuck Schumer comes to regret, particularly if a race like Rhode Island gets fumbled.
M-D concurs with the emerging consensus in Maryland, virtual tie; they have Cardin up 3 after having Cardin up 6 two weeks ago.
Montana's tied. Guess we know what had the Montana Democrats sweating earlier this week.
In Tennessee, M-D has Corker up 12, 50 percent to 38 percent. If Corker wins big, I'm going to want to rub Newsweek's noses in it for that glowing, heroic cover piece they ran on Harold Ford Jr. Anoint him the Golden Child after he's won, not before.
Worst sign for Republicans? Another poll showing Virginia nearly tied, M-D showing Webb by 1. It's gonna be a close race, and from my mailbag, the NoVa Democrats are fired up. Allen had better hope his get-out-the-vote effort works a heck of a lot better than the rest of his campaign has worked so far.
Does any know what the sample mix is??
Kyl is well respected in Arizona. Pederson comes off as a do things under the table kind of guy.
I say Kyl by 10 points.
The name Casey is only known for "pro-life" issues and I believe it was the elder Casey who was pro-life.
You'd think Santorum could win but I am not so sure this time. I wish Swann had a chance, though.
We have the marriage issue in AZ as well and the polls are all saying it will go down in defeat!!
For the longest time I confused Harold Ford with Derek Jeter.
Daley is friends with W? Hmmm........
Chicago--my hometown. Actually, Joliet is.
Oh, yeah, the Santorums also homeschooled for awhile.
Please stop in and say a prayer!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1731894/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1731268/posts
Wacky!
LIEberman will not stay independent
He will reveal his liberal democRAT self soon enough
Rural PA and the smaller urban areas (Lancaster, etc.) are conservative and Republican by quite a margin. Philly is insanely liberal, and the suburban areas, which used to be reliably Republican are trending blue, thanks to Philly people moving out and also migration from blue states to suburban Philly. The Pittsburgh area is also blue but not as bad as Philly.
From the 2004 Presidential election:
UPDATE: Gallup also detects a momentum shift, and like Pew, they have settled on John Kerry's remarks as the likely culprit (via AJ Strata):
President Bush's last-ditch push for votes and Sen. John Kerry's comments that seemed to denigrate the education level of U.S. forces in Iraq have helped energize GOP voters. A Democratic advantage of 23 percentage points a month ago and 13 points two weeks ago is now down to 7. A Pew Research Center survey released Sunday also showed that an 11-point edge for Democrats on the congressional ballot two weeks ago had narrowed to 4 points among likely voters. "It's gone from a slam-dunk for Democrats to take the House to a pretty good chance," says Andy Kohut, director of the center.
http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/008445.php
There are a couple counties painted red there that really surprise me. Westmoreland is the obvious shocker. Cambria too. Even Chester.
It's a pleasant surprise.
If Santorum is -12 to -16, Why are all the big name Dems showing up in PA stumping for Casey?
Yes, very interesting. Provocative even.
Dauphin County is surprising too.
Do you think there is hope turning the state to the GOP column in the Presidential election in 2008?
What's your take on Santorum?
I doubt Pennsylvania will be saved in 2008, and I think a Santorum win would be an amazement.
We are like northern California, or downstate Illinois (or upstate New York): hell-bound by our urban populations.
Yes. I left that out.
Very odd. Almost encouraging.
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