Posted on 11/05/2006 3:16:09 PM PST by Oakleaf
Boy, today's Mason Dixon polls do nothing to dissuade the notion of a late-breaking shift back to the Republicans.
As you know, I like to whack around pollsters like a pinata, but Mason-Dixon has a good reputation among political professionals - if they're not always right, they almost never give you a really wacky result. In 2004, they got 13 out of 14 swing states right at the presidential level (they put Bush up in Minnesota) and were pretty spot-on in their margin of victory.
Today, M-D puts Brown beating DeWine by 6 in Ohio. (Who was writing last night Ohio had turned into a single-digit race?) (Interestingly, they saw no tightening in Pennsylvania; Santorum went from -12 to -13.) Brown is still the favorite, but DeWine can take some solace in the fact that the numbers are turning his direction in these final days.
The real shocker is M-D has Chafee ahead by one point. I heard a Globe reporter saying the Democrats were worried about Rhode Island, and thought it was interesting but didn't quite buy it. Chafee had been down pretty big for a while. But as a buddy of mine noted, Chafee's a well-established, well-respected family name; those names don't often get blown out by 10 to 14 points. (I could see the argument that between a liberal Republican and a liberal Democrat, voters will pick the Democrat, but as we saw in the primary, Chafee's got a better connection to this community than we expected.) Everybody's had this one as an automatic Democratic pickup; if this seat slips through their fingers, it's like the number 15 team beating the number 2 team in the NCAA basketball tournament; it wrecks a lot of office pools.
M-D has Missouri close (surprise) but the trend is interesting, from McCaskill up 3 late last month to up 1. I'm hearing that Talent's internal numbers are fantastic - for whatever that's worth - and that the cloning referendum has the GOP base revved.
In Arizona, M-D has Jon Kyl up 8, suggesting that spending $1 million at the last minute may be a decision that Chuck Schumer comes to regret, particularly if a race like Rhode Island gets fumbled.
M-D concurs with the emerging consensus in Maryland, virtual tie; they have Cardin up 3 after having Cardin up 6 two weeks ago.
Montana's tied. Guess we know what had the Montana Democrats sweating earlier this week.
In Tennessee, M-D has Corker up 12, 50 percent to 38 percent. If Corker wins big, I'm going to want to rub Newsweek's noses in it for that glowing, heroic cover piece they ran on Harold Ford Jr. Anoint him the Golden Child after he's won, not before.
Worst sign for Republicans? Another poll showing Virginia nearly tied, M-D showing Webb by 1. It's gonna be a close race, and from my mailbag, the NoVa Democrats are fired up. Allen had better hope his get-out-the-vote effort works a heck of a lot better than the rest of his campaign has worked so far.
I heard he was a nice a guy, but a real empty suit! sounds like he isn't even a nice guy, just living on his families name! How sad!
I'm glad you asked. The answer can be found here.
I figure even the "good" pollsters are quizzing far too many people whose only source of news is the MSM... that's maybe why they get such left-leaning results? If a pollster filtered for people who tune in to Fox news daily or who are active on this Free Republic board (...or others like it...) I can imagine the results would seem more reasonable, i.e. Presidential approval ratings not so low, etc... Just my own conjecture.
I whole-heartedly concur in your advice: "Just show up on Tuesday"...!!!
He's on HnC on Fox right now.
" If Corker wins big, I'm going to want to rub Newsweek's noses in it for that glowing, heroic cover piece they ran on Harold Ford Jr."
MSNBC has been going full-out for Ford.
hehehe, it's the mascot of the Penn State Football team. And it's a life-size statue near the statium that's been there for...decades. All hail the Nittany Lion!
You have solved a mystery for us Wolverines and Spartans. Thanks.
So, who is his daddy?
I don't think you or I or none of us want to know,,, lol.
I'm not happy to predict this ...but I think Webb will win handily.
...I don't know. Call me wacky! But I don't believe that your negative karma helps matters much. What's the harm in believing? Why spread your worthless prediction around?
Glad I could be of assistance. ;-)
quote:"I think this could happen. Allen, Talent, Burns, Chafee, Steele will gut out close wins. I believe Corker will get it done in Tennessee, Kyle in Arizona. And I think Kean and Dewine have a shot. So let's go out there and win".
I still think somehting is wrong with the polling this year. The Billings Gazette has a side bar poll on the senate race and with almost 80,000 votes Burns is ahead 2 to 1. I know there is no restrictions on who can vote, but still that seems like an awful big spread to be ignored. I hope it is right.
Have you heard the story of William Howard Taft, after attending the funeral of his old friend and rival Theodore Roosevelt? Big Bill Taft went to the grave after anyone had left and wept uncontrollaby for an hour. So at least W.H. Taft had regards for others; too bad about his ungrateful great-grandson.
Good story and no I haven't heard it before. I think those were different times, being a friend probably came first.
I did go to my local GOP phone bank and made almost 300 calls.
God bless you for working the phones.
Amen, Albie. We need to think victory, talk victory, and act victory!!!
If Pat says it is close or even tied, then I believe he has a shot. GO SANTORUM.
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