Posted on 11/05/2006 3:16:09 PM PST by Oakleaf
Boy, today's Mason Dixon polls do nothing to dissuade the notion of a late-breaking shift back to the Republicans.
As you know, I like to whack around pollsters like a pinata, but Mason-Dixon has a good reputation among political professionals - if they're not always right, they almost never give you a really wacky result. In 2004, they got 13 out of 14 swing states right at the presidential level (they put Bush up in Minnesota) and were pretty spot-on in their margin of victory.
Today, M-D puts Brown beating DeWine by 6 in Ohio. (Who was writing last night Ohio had turned into a single-digit race?) (Interestingly, they saw no tightening in Pennsylvania; Santorum went from -12 to -13.) Brown is still the favorite, but DeWine can take some solace in the fact that the numbers are turning his direction in these final days.
The real shocker is M-D has Chafee ahead by one point. I heard a Globe reporter saying the Democrats were worried about Rhode Island, and thought it was interesting but didn't quite buy it. Chafee had been down pretty big for a while. But as a buddy of mine noted, Chafee's a well-established, well-respected family name; those names don't often get blown out by 10 to 14 points. (I could see the argument that between a liberal Republican and a liberal Democrat, voters will pick the Democrat, but as we saw in the primary, Chafee's got a better connection to this community than we expected.) Everybody's had this one as an automatic Democratic pickup; if this seat slips through their fingers, it's like the number 15 team beating the number 2 team in the NCAA basketball tournament; it wrecks a lot of office pools.
M-D has Missouri close (surprise) but the trend is interesting, from McCaskill up 3 late last month to up 1. I'm hearing that Talent's internal numbers are fantastic - for whatever that's worth - and that the cloning referendum has the GOP base revved.
In Arizona, M-D has Jon Kyl up 8, suggesting that spending $1 million at the last minute may be a decision that Chuck Schumer comes to regret, particularly if a race like Rhode Island gets fumbled.
M-D concurs with the emerging consensus in Maryland, virtual tie; they have Cardin up 3 after having Cardin up 6 two weeks ago.
Montana's tied. Guess we know what had the Montana Democrats sweating earlier this week.
In Tennessee, M-D has Corker up 12, 50 percent to 38 percent. If Corker wins big, I'm going to want to rub Newsweek's noses in it for that glowing, heroic cover piece they ran on Harold Ford Jr. Anoint him the Golden Child after he's won, not before.
Worst sign for Republicans? Another poll showing Virginia nearly tied, M-D showing Webb by 1. It's gonna be a close race, and from my mailbag, the NoVa Democrats are fired up. Allen had better hope his get-out-the-vote effort works a heck of a lot better than the rest of his campaign has worked so far.
The Mc Laughlin group doesn't live in NJ and understand how upset many are at Cirzine's lie when he promised a cut in prop taxes and delivered a sales tax increase.
Also Menendez is a crook and while people around here expect it, they aren't too enthused about it. Menendez is an appointee he hasn't been elected statewide yet.
As I see it, our criminal Gov. Taft, has destroyed Republican politicans here in Ohio for several decades. What a POS. My family and I were at a restaurant several years ago, my son had made reservations for a wonderful table days in advance. When we got there we were not seated right away and seemed to be some confusion. The hostess took us aside and asked if we would relinquish our table to Taft and his party because of security. We did and I told the hostess to tell him he is lucky he is a Republican or we would have never agreed, with a laugh. The jerk did not respond with any thank you or acknowledgement of any kind. If I knew then what I know now, he would have had to wait.
If that happens the phrase unhinged would become a mild description of the Left. The very fear of them doing something extremely drastic (and we know what that means) is no longer a far-fetched idea.
I am not from PA but I think it is the support he gave Spector that is haunting him. My opinion.
Live like a Democrat, work like a Republican. :)
And may I add here that the FR PA boards have featured several very vocal posters of the Constitutional Party persuasion who did nothing but slam Santorum for several years. Until three posters were banned in recent weeks.
Maybe, maybe not. I know it was a long time ago, but after 62, everyone thought Nixon was a goner. After 88 and the terrible speech Clinton gave at the convention, everyone thought he was a goner. Stranger things have happened.
"He that keepeth his mouth and his tongue keepeth his soul from troubles."
If your scenario plays out the way you think, what on earth will be the MSM excuse....stolen election? They have tried to propagandize the American electorate unrelentingly.
If conservatives tried that, the MSM would be all over them as speaking empty rhetoric, avoiding real issues,blah, blah, blah
But, they hear John F'n Kerry say "I'm John Kerry and I'm reporting for duty" they split a gut from glee
Take another look at it. There was something missing. See if you can see what I just added.
Just what is a Nittany Lion?
Virginia is the one that worries me the most.
The Dems there do seem fired up and ready to crawl across broken glass, though not elsewhere in the country.
Corker is a definite win.
Great news there.
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