Posted on 11/03/2006 11:23:06 PM PST by JohnHuang2
On MSNBC yesterday, Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report said he believes the Republican Party is in a "meltdown" that will lead to a 20-seat pickup for Democrats in the U.S. House. (Democrats need to gain 15 seats to take control of the House.) With all due respect, I believe Mr. Cook is wrong. Continues...
================================================================
GOP rolls out October Surprise!
In the generic ballot vote for control of Congress, the AP poll has Democrats "leading" Republicans. The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has Democrats "leading" Republicans. CNN/USA Today has Democrats in the "lead." Republicans are also losing in the CBS News/New York Times poll -- only 39% say they'll vote Republican! Oops, that was two years ago. (In fairness, a few days after the CBS survey, a poll did come out showing Republicans leading Democrats -- the poll called Election Day, '04.)
Polls in '04 had Kerry beating Bush. Kerry winning! How dumb is that? But that's the dumb business of polling for you. Which stresses the importance of education. Education. If you make the most of it, you study hard, you do your homework and you make an effort to be smart, you can do well. If you don't, you get stuck doing polling.
Fast-forward to 2006: The Los Angeles Times reports that "The latest USA Today/Gallup poll has the Democrats leading the Republicans . . ." Steven Thomma of the McClatchy newspapers writes that polls show "Democrats lead Republicans . . ." The Sacramento Bee says "State-by-state polls show Democrats leading" Republicans. The New York Times reports that "polls have shown . . . Democrats leading Republicans." But that was last week.
Now that we're just one week from the elections, the "polls" are magically "tightening." And the headlines are magically changing. Democrats fear the storm could leave them high and dry, read one. Race for Congress is narrowing, read another. And more and more stories of Democrats complaining about voter-ID measures that require voters to show they're citizens. (The 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals just revived Ohio's ID provision for early absentee voters, putting at risk thousands and thousands of already cast illegal votes!)
One week from the elections, GOP House seats once "certain" to go Democrat, are now "toss-ups." Liberals are shocked that in former Congressman Tom Delay's district all Republicans didn't become Democrats, despite their pounding voters there for months with polls showing the Democrat 'leading.' One week ago, the write-in GOP candidate didn't have a shot. This week, the Write-in for Delay spot has a shot -- headline in the Houston Chronicle.
The Wall Street Journal admitted that the GOP is ahead in early voting in "Congressional districts from Ohio and Florida to New Mexico and Arizona." Democrats are losing even in Mark Foley's district. In GOP Rep. Heather Wilson's district, 22,000 absentee ballots have been requested by "demoralized" Republicans, almost as many as requested in 2004 by "energized" Republicans.
Democratic Campaign Committee honcho Karin Johanson, after checking the latest polls from "swing seats," told the London Times that "some of the polls are looking great -- really great -- but some of the recent ones have been looking not so good."
It's been so "looking not so good" for the losercrats that last Saturday they gave James Webb the mike to deliver the party's weekly radio address, hoping to knock the pedophile stuff from his novel off the front pages. Webb was so eager, he ran happily toward the mike and grabbed it in his arms, turned it upside down, and put it in his mouth.
Probably out of frustration, Congressman Charles Rangel on Monday "blasted Dick Cheney as a 'son of a bitch' after the vice president" said Rangel would hike taxes if Democrats got control of Congress, reports the New York Post. "The bitter war of words escalated to the point where the bombastic Rangel questioned whether the tightly-wound" 'son of a bitch' "needed professional treatment." Cheney reacted to Rangel's remarks magnanimously, even inviting him to go hunting.
Then the Republicans rolled out their sneaky October Surprise -- John Kerry! Kerry accused Republicans of Kerry's explosive remarks. This is what horseface on Monday told a group of college students in California: "You know, education, if you make the most of it, you study hard, you do your homework and you make an effort to be smart, you can do well. And if you don't, you get stuck in Iraq." Kerry says Republicans are taking his lips out of context, twisting his insult into an insult of troops in Iraq, when he 'clearly' meant to insult the President. So here's what horseface really meant to tell those college students: 'If you study hard and you do your homework, you presidents won't get stuck with a dead-end job like . . . president.' Or, 'if you study hard, you presidents will brilliantly lead an international coalition into Iraq . . .' Keep in mind that Kerry accused troops in Vietnam of being butchers and rapists and troops in Iraq of terrorizing women and children. He must have meant Bush there, too.
Kerry's remarks were such a self-inflicted wound, he immediately put in for a Purple Heart.
Kerry said that "the White House's attempt to distort my true statement is a remarkable testament to their abject failure to making America safe." Evidently, 'accurately' interpreting Kerry's deranged remarks is now part of making America safe.
The left wing nut-job called Republicans "right wing nut-jobs," belittled White House spokesman Tony Snow as a "stuffed suit," Rush Limbaugh as "doughy" and Sen. John McCain as a liar -- all part of Kerry's effort to set the proper tone for discourse.
On a broader level, beyond Kerry and Rangel, if you go strictly by the polls, signs of how much "trouble" the GOP is not in include:
-- Missouri's human cloning ballot proposal sinking like a rock.
-- A new Washington Post poll showing 60% are OK with their Congressman. Because it wasn't 100%, the press promptly called this a 'growing wave' of anti-incumbency.
-- The Cook Political "Report" noting on Monday "there are no signs that this (Democrat) wave is abating," which must be why the Democrats are going into debt.
-- Iraq being a 'loser' issue for warmongering/Zionist/imperialist candidates this election, which is why Ned Lamont is getting creamed by a Warmongering/Zionist/Imperialist. But that's just warmongering Connecticut for you.
Armed with this knowledge, "experts" insist the GOP base isn't as "energized" about this election as the Jerry Springer couch potato set. "Disenchanted" conservatives are disenchanted because Republicans have govern as Democrats. Falling gas prices, 700-mile fence, Alito, Roberts, record stock market, booming economy, tax cuts -- nothing "alienates" "true" conservatives like this stuff. Then there's the deficit -- unlike the string of balanced budgets under Reagan.
If I understand the "disaffected" brainiacs who want to hand this election to the Democrats, the plan is to sit this one out, let the GOP crash to "teach them a lesson," then watch the GOP -- without power -- magically enact the "lesson" into law, because if you want the conservative agenda implemented, you flush your allies down the toilet and let Nancy Pelosi be Speaker. Tax cuts are a big hit with her. This strategy worked swimmingly back in '92, now didn't it? To "teach" George H.W. Bush a "lesson," people voted for Perot and got Clinton, Monica and Osama bin Laden.
Which is why the good money is still on Republicans not sitting out the election.
Anyway, that's...
My Two Cents
"JohnHuang2"
Thanks for the upbeat JH! You have a good one too! Tigers kick the Vol's ass!!!
Very, very good article!
Huh?
Stupendous.... you are always brilliantly funny and a genius with the way you bottom-line the facts/issues, but this one was true magic :-)
As a conservative I've been disappointed in the Republican party over the past two years on immigration policy, trade policy, spending, weak candidates in many races, and a general failure to communicate effectively with the American people. When arriving at the polling place to vote early on Friday, I resisted my desire to send the Republican leadership a message with a protest vote for the opposition. I believe the future of the country is at stake so I voted a straight Republican ticket even though I believe the party does not deserve my vote. The alternative is too appalling. Unfortunately my wife chose not to vote at all, she won't vote Dem and won't vote for a party she believes is taking her for granted on election day and then abandoning her principles as it governs.
Kathryn Harris even received my vote today even though she and her campaign are symbolic of the weakness that pervades the party leadership today. Bill Nelson is a weak Senator who could have easily been defeated had the party either gotten behind Harris or put up a strong alternative in the primary. This one will likely go Dem but should have been an easy win for our side. Our party leadership pulls out all the stops for Arlan Specter in 2004 or Lincoln Chaffee in 2006 yet can't field a decent candidate in a southern state or at least get behind the candidate who is running. The Dems have no problem supporting Lamont, Menendez, and other weak candidates because they know every race counts.
Whatever the outcome, I hope the Republican leadership realizes it can't continue to rely on a base that votes for the party out of fear for the alternative. We need a positive message to give people something to vote for rather than against. Reagan demonstrated real leadership by staying true to his conservative principles.
We have been ill served by the current generation of Republican leaders who fail to act conservative except at election time. Even Bush is not a real conservative as evidenced by his immigration policies and failure to veto even one spending bill. I expect Hillary, Obama, or whoever the Dems put up in 2008 to understand the power of communication just as James Carville and Bill Clinton did in 1992. Win or lose in 2006, the Republicans have 2 years to get their act together to formulate a message to energize the population and demonstrate leadership on the issues that matter.
LOL, very good!
Dem's can have the October surprise - I prefer the November surprise, when we vote and they lose.
Heard on the news today the SDS is being re-organized. My question is will it be funded by the Taliban, alQuaeda or Saudi Arabia since the Russians funded the original Students for a Democratic Society?
Fast. Pray. Vote. WIN!
If Dick Cheney really said that, he's the very best there is. Ever.
I still can't believe that kerry and the democrats would be irrational enough to suggest that a man who made it through Yale, then through Harvard Business, then through flight school, then ran a pro baseball team, then served as Texas Governor, then served as a two-term President, did all that without studying or doing his homework.
I've got to wonder how crazy they're going to get, if they remain out of power for another 8 years.
When pollsters call us, we all say we're voting DEMORAT!! BWAAAHAHAHAHA!
I didn't want you to miss this one and please share it with others. Brilliant analysis, I think. (Not unusual for JohnHuang.)
Thanks for the great read. God bless you!
Oh an occasional giggle too...thanks!
"Education. If you make the most of it, you study hard, you do your homework and you make an effort to be smart, you can do well. If you don't, you get stuck doing polling. "
I don't know if I'm right, but I think all the talk of Dems assured victory has may make the Democratic voters apathetic. To tell a pollster you'll vote Dem is one thing, to actually go to the polls, quite another.
I live in a heavily Democratic precinct. Lawns are usually plastered with campaign signs. It's not unusual to see two or three signs in every yard during a campaign (all for the Dem.) I have not seen one sign in my neighborhood, other than for a local school board race.
Why, I don't have a clue? I live in Florida, and you'd at least think you'd see signs for Davis or Nelson.
I'm just observing a difference this election. The Democratic constituency (at least in my neighborhood) don't seem to be fired up over the election.
Oh LOL! Stop it, I want to savor my coffee, not paint the monitor...yer killin' me here... : )
I'll be there on Tuesday, voting R, R and more R.
Good one John!
I have never seen a poll that equal numbers of republicans as democrats polled.
They are designed as propaganda to promote the MSM agenda.
Isn't it time we grew up and faced that fact.
VOTE REPUBLICAN
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.