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DSCC Memo re: Arizona US Senate race (Kyl vs. Pederson)-- Kyl in danger?
Hotline Blog ^ | 11-2-06 | Hotline Blog

Posted on 11/02/2006 8:14:36 AM PST by GraniteStateConservative

Here'a a memo from pollsters Paul Harstad and Chris Keating the DSCC will release today:

"According to our October 29 to 31 survey of 745 likely Arizona voters, fully 30% of the Arizona electorate has already voted. We expect that perhaps up to two-fifths of the voters in this election will vote early or by absentee ballot. In our October 8 to 31 tracking polls (since early voting started) we have interviewed a total of 594 early voters. Among these early voters, Jim Pederson is leading Jon Kyl by 4 points: 44% for Pederson compared to 40% for Kyl, with 4% for other candidates and 12% refused. This 4% Pederson lead is all the more remarkable since registered Republicans and Democrats are equally likely to have voted early, and in fact there are more Republicans than Democrats in this early-voting sample of 594 respondents."

(Excerpt) Read more at hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Arizona
KEYWORDS: jimpederson; jonkyl
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Follow the money is usually a fairly decent way to learn truth, and the DSCC could be using this money in places like MO, NJ, TN, MT, etc. But, they aren't. It's hard to see them spending money on a race that wasn't even in a toss-up category for them when there are obvious toss-up races available for them to spend money on. Could be worth watching on Tuesday.
1 posted on 11/02/2006 8:14:37 AM PST by GraniteStateConservative
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To: AntiGuv; Torie

fyi...


2 posted on 11/02/2006 8:15:14 AM PST by GraniteStateConservative (...He had committed no crime against America so I did not bring him here...-- Worst.President.Ever.)
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To: GraniteStateConservative

I wish people on FR would not fall for this bogus bull.


3 posted on 11/02/2006 8:16:33 AM PST by Perdogg (Democratic Party - The political wing of Al Qaida)
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To: GraniteStateConservative

And monkeys might fly out of my butt


4 posted on 11/02/2006 8:16:43 AM PST by Uncledave
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To: GraniteStateConservative

According to realclearpolitics.com polling data Kyl has an average 9.0% lead.

I'm not worried about Arizona.


5 posted on 11/02/2006 8:17:26 AM PST by Artemis Webb (All Truth is God's Truth...regardless of the source.)
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To: GraniteStateConservative

KYL is NOT in trouble....he is the BEST SENATOR in the US!!


6 posted on 11/02/2006 8:20:14 AM PST by Suzy Quzy
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To: Suzy Quzy

exit polls hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm


7 posted on 11/02/2006 8:22:57 AM PST by italianquaker (Democrats and media can't win elections at least they can win their phony polls.)
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To: GraniteStateConservative
12% refused.

More than likely these are Republicans who told them to "blow it out their ear"

8 posted on 11/02/2006 8:23:16 AM PST by Mygirlsmom (How did Karl Rove's Hurricane Machine make such a perfect storm come out of John Kerry's mouth?)
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To: italianquaker

Hmmm Well this are not exactly exit polls. However I am not buying this at all. I enjoy polls but this is clearly suspect. Also we would hear panic in conservative corners if this was true. He is safe


9 posted on 11/02/2006 8:25:46 AM PST by catholicfreeper (Geaux Tigers SEC FOOTBALL ROCKS)
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To: Suzy Quzy
Hotline blog is a DNC operation.
The hotline person had a shouting match with tony snow at this weeks press meeting .
10 posted on 11/02/2006 8:25:47 AM PST by BurtSB (the price of freedom is eternal vigilance)
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To: Mygirlsmom
Jim Pederson has outspent Jon Kyl by a huge margin. Here in Phoenix, it's Jim Pederson on every TV and radio station every 5 minutes. I am sick of seeing this lying SOB's face. Most of the money he has spent is his own. You don't even have to hear him, you can tell just by looking at him that he is a sleezeball. If this state goes for him, then they deserve what they get. Too many Kalifornians here messing up our political climate.
11 posted on 11/02/2006 8:30:02 AM PST by SMM48
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To: GraniteStateConservative

I was waiting for the punchline "and 12% were undecided".


12 posted on 11/02/2006 8:30:03 AM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: GraniteStateConservative

The 12% "refused" were most likely republicans. Would a person who just voted democrat refuse to tell the democratic committee who they voted for?

Remember, this was a POLL of the early voters, not a sample of ALL the voters. So they already dropped out of the sample all the people who simply would not answer the poll.

Therefore the 12% are people who answered the phone, and were willing to TALK to them, but then wouldn't tell them who they voted for.


13 posted on 11/02/2006 8:32:24 AM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: CharlesWayneCT

Exactly......12% refused? That makes it probably 52-53% Kyl. This is more spin by the Rats to try to keep people from voting.


14 posted on 11/02/2006 8:38:48 AM PST by milwguy
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To: Suzy Quzy

Kyl and Corker are not in trouble and will win.

But Talent, Allen and Burns need the 72 hour GOTV on steroids. They need massive gop turnout.

These are states that bush carried by 7,8, and 14 points and all three of them are looking like they will lose by 3-5 percent.

You can throw zogby's polling out. But realpolitics was very accurate on bush-kerry and all three of them have polling trends in the wrong direction and are in the mid 40's.

Gop needs to make a firewall in either virginia, missouri, or montana. Pick one of those states and use it as a firewall so you can not lose that sixth seat.

Gop wasted 8 million on dewine for that money think what you could have done in montana with GOTV.


15 posted on 11/02/2006 8:41:19 AM PST by jamesrichards
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To: GraniteStateConservative

This was covered on FNC earlier today and they in fact interviewed Kyl - this "poll" is the only one of its type and it's believed it's put out there to justify the DNC sending money to Kyl's opponent because he's exhausted his own money (poured $12 million in himself) and now he's demanded the DNC ante up as they'd promised + a way for the DNC to try and create their own momentum after Kerry's slip exposing the left's anti-US morale.


16 posted on 11/02/2006 8:46:53 AM PST by Steven W.
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To: GraniteStateConservative

Sen. Kyl is in great shape. He has a 9 point lead over Pederson. I was one of the people called for this poll. I told the caller it was none of her business who I voted for.
I will tell you guys, I voted for Kyl, my son in Iraq told me he voted for Kyl, and my other 2 sons voted for Kyl. My wife doesn't like early voting. She likes going to the polling place. She is also going to vote for Kyl.

Now if we can just get rid of Grijalva, and Pastor, Arizona will have done her part. But I don't see either Grijalva or Pastor losing.


17 posted on 11/02/2006 9:16:56 AM PST by sean327 (God created all men equal, then some become Marines!)
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To: GraniteStateConservative

This is just more psy-ops from the Democrats to try and rev their voters and depress the R voters. Ignore it.


18 posted on 11/02/2006 9:17:59 AM PST by fschmieg
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To: GraniteStateConservative

We also heard similar nonsense about early voting in Florida before the 2004 election. Absolutely identical!


19 posted on 11/02/2006 9:19:22 AM PST by fschmieg
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To: jamesrichards

Allen and Talent will NOT lose!


20 posted on 11/02/2006 10:07:48 AM PST by Suzy Quzy
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