Posted on 11/02/2006 8:14:36 AM PST by GraniteStateConservative
Here'a a memo from pollsters Paul Harstad and Chris Keating the DSCC will release today:
"According to our October 29 to 31 survey of 745 likely Arizona voters, fully 30% of the Arizona electorate has already voted. We expect that perhaps up to two-fifths of the voters in this election will vote early or by absentee ballot. In our October 8 to 31 tracking polls (since early voting started) we have interviewed a total of 594 early voters. Among these early voters, Jim Pederson is leading Jon Kyl by 4 points: 44% for Pederson compared to 40% for Kyl, with 4% for other candidates and 12% refused. This 4% Pederson lead is all the more remarkable since registered Republicans and Democrats are equally likely to have voted early, and in fact there are more Republicans than Democrats in this early-voting sample of 594 respondents."
(Excerpt) Read more at hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com ...
fyi...
I wish people on FR would not fall for this bogus bull.
And monkeys might fly out of my butt
According to realclearpolitics.com polling data Kyl has an average 9.0% lead.
I'm not worried about Arizona.
KYL is NOT in trouble....he is the BEST SENATOR in the US!!
exit polls hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
More than likely these are Republicans who told them to "blow it out their ear"
Hmmm Well this are not exactly exit polls. However I am not buying this at all. I enjoy polls but this is clearly suspect. Also we would hear panic in conservative corners if this was true. He is safe
I was waiting for the punchline "and 12% were undecided".
The 12% "refused" were most likely republicans. Would a person who just voted democrat refuse to tell the democratic committee who they voted for?
Remember, this was a POLL of the early voters, not a sample of ALL the voters. So they already dropped out of the sample all the people who simply would not answer the poll.
Therefore the 12% are people who answered the phone, and were willing to TALK to them, but then wouldn't tell them who they voted for.
Exactly......12% refused? That makes it probably 52-53% Kyl. This is more spin by the Rats to try to keep people from voting.
Kyl and Corker are not in trouble and will win.
But Talent, Allen and Burns need the 72 hour GOTV on steroids. They need massive gop turnout.
These are states that bush carried by 7,8, and 14 points and all three of them are looking like they will lose by 3-5 percent.
You can throw zogby's polling out. But realpolitics was very accurate on bush-kerry and all three of them have polling trends in the wrong direction and are in the mid 40's.
Gop needs to make a firewall in either virginia, missouri, or montana. Pick one of those states and use it as a firewall so you can not lose that sixth seat.
Gop wasted 8 million on dewine for that money think what you could have done in montana with GOTV.
This was covered on FNC earlier today and they in fact interviewed Kyl - this "poll" is the only one of its type and it's believed it's put out there to justify the DNC sending money to Kyl's opponent because he's exhausted his own money (poured $12 million in himself) and now he's demanded the DNC ante up as they'd promised + a way for the DNC to try and create their own momentum after Kerry's slip exposing the left's anti-US morale.
Sen. Kyl is in great shape. He has a 9 point lead over Pederson. I was one of the people called for this poll. I told the caller it was none of her business who I voted for.
I will tell you guys, I voted for Kyl, my son in Iraq told me he voted for Kyl, and my other 2 sons voted for Kyl. My wife doesn't like early voting. She likes going to the polling place. She is also going to vote for Kyl.
Now if we can just get rid of Grijalva, and Pastor, Arizona will have done her part. But I don't see either Grijalva or Pastor losing.
This is just more psy-ops from the Democrats to try and rev their voters and depress the R voters. Ignore it.
We also heard similar nonsense about early voting in Florida before the 2004 election. Absolutely identical!
Allen and Talent will NOT lose!
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