SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- November 2006 Update

self | November 1, 2006 | RobFromGa

[RobFromGa]

UPDATE 11/1 INCLUDING FREEPER INPUT

SIX DAYS AWAY FROM NOV 7, here's my updated opinions on the races. Things have moved towards the GOP in my opinion.

[Note: We have 48 GOP seats besides these 12 that are either not up for reelection or they are not close enough to be in play.]

The SENATE "CONTESTS" (Ranked most likely GOP to least)

VA- R seat- ALLEN vs. Webb (90%) Webb is toast
MO- R seat- TALENT vs. McCaskill (70%) Michael J Fox backfired
TN- R seat- Corker vs. Ford (60%) "Playboy" Ford is making stupid moves
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Keep 51 seat GOP control ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
(Note: need two of three for 50-50 Cheney majority, but this entails power-sharing in cmtes, etc)

MT- R seat- BURNS vs. Tester (55%) improving, Bush to visit next week
MD- D seat- Steele vs. Cardin (55%) improving, great ads
NJ- D seat- Kean vs. MENENDEZ (50%) steady, RINO v. crook- go with the RINO
PA- R seat- SANTORUM vs. Casey (50%) improving, Rick deserves win
^^^^^^^^^^^^ Needed to Maintain 55-45 GOP (status quo ratio) ^^^^^^^^^^^^

MI- D seat- Bouchard vs. STABENOW (50%) Bouchard surging!
RI- R seat- CHAFEE vs. Whitehouse (40%) lib v. lib- who cares?
OH- R seat- DEWINE vs. Brown (40%) I hope DeWine pulls it out, but it looks unlikely from here
WA- D seat- McGavick vs. CANTWELL (25%) hard to get traction
MN- D seat- Kennedy vs. Klobuchar* (25%) improving but way behind
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Attain 60 seat majority ^^^^^^^^^^^

SAFE GOP SEATS

AZ- (R= current seatholder)- Kyl safe
IN- R- Lugar safe
ME- R- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 8 safe + 40 carryovers = 48 minimum GOP

SAFE DEM/INDEPENDENT SEATS

CA- (D=current status)- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman(I) or Lamont(D) safe
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- Akaka safe
MA- D- Kennedy safe
NE- D- Nelson safe (sorry FL Freepers- prove me wrong!)
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WI- D- Kohl safe
WV- D- Byrd safe
VT- Ind- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders-Soc safe
DEMS: 13 safe + 27 carryovers = 40 minimum DEM

[RobFromGa]

Where does this change come from?

I've pretty much said Even to -2 all along, now I think we will win Michigan as well and that we will win the leaners that I thought we might lose.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

My bad...you are correct. I apologize for my hasty, rather stupid, correction! :)

[BillyBoy]

>> Who's the 2nd I? Jeffords is leaving. I forgot Jeffords is done. OK 52/47/1

Joe Lieberman (I-CT)
Bernie Sanders (I-VT)

The only way we'll end up with one "independant" is

A) Lieberman stumbles badly and Lamont surges at the last minute or suddenly the "Lieberman is our buddy" useful idiots on our side wake up and conservatives and moderates OVERWHEMINGLY support Schlessinger (R) to give him 34% over the two socialists.

OR

B) Hell freezers over and "independant" Congressman Bernie Sanders (who's only "independant" because the Dem party is too "right-wing" for him) loses enough votes to the other commie candidates that Rich Tarrant (R) eeks in under the rader with less than 50% of the vote. Vermont has one Congressman at large so right now that commie is a lock to succeed Jeffords.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

I think you are very right about Michigan.
Have you seen this?
http://view.emailgop.com/?ffcb10-fecc15737061067e-fe1f1679746c0174761c73-fef8167770650c

[ConservativeGreek]

No problem.
We all type too fast!!!! LOL

[ConservativeGreek]

that we will win the leaners that I thought we might lose.

I pray we have the victories you're predicting.
If I was as optomistic as you are I would sleep better.

My view is unchanged. We drop Santorum, DeWine and Chafee.
No gains.
52 47 1

[SFConservative]

My bad...you are correct. I apologize for my hasty, rather stupid, correction!

What? You have nothing to apologize for and nobody to apologize to.

You merely botched the joke, intending to say "Ha ha, Bush is stupid, ha ha!" instead of "He's not predicting that, just listing the possibilities." An understandable slip of the tongue.

[Sacajaweau]

To Virginians, the name Byrd means Virginia. Run someone named Mickey Mouse Byrd...and he would win.

[Always A Marine]

My view is unchanged. We drop Santorum, DeWine and Chafee.

Chafee's loss is a victory for America and for the GOP. If he goes, we won't have to listen to his threats to jump over to the Dems. They've had that seat all along, just with a phony "R" occupying it.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Yeah! I'll apologize to noone!!!

--after I already apologized---

Dang it, I can never get anything right! lol

[Faith]

New Zogby/WSJ poll has DeWine down 1.4.

[Minus_The_Bear]

Losses: VA, MT, MN, WA, NJ, PA, MI, MD

Wins: TN, MO, OH

[no dems]

Boy Rob, I sure hope you're right; especially with regard to Talent (MO) and Santorum (PA).

[Quix]

THANKS MUCH

[JerseyDvl]

Some on the thread may have their criticisms but aside from an overly optimistic take on Santorum, I think it looks accurate.
GOTV...broken glass baby, broken glass.

[SmoothTalker]

I think Rick goes down, we lose Maryland, and that we lose one of the three between TN, MT, and MO. That would put us at -3 which still keeps us in power.

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[Fledermaus]

I disagree with your +3...the Dems will find a way to steal MD, MI and there is NO WAY NJ goes for Kean when they have their perfect, corrupt, slime candidate in Menendez.

NJ LOVES corrupt politicians.

[Fledermaus]

DeWine is gone and he deserves to go.

[Salvation]

**WA- D seat- McGavick vs. CANTWELL (25%) hard to get traction **

I think there will be a Cantwell upset.