Posted on 11/01/2006 7:01:19 PM PST by RobFromGa
UPDATE 11/1 INCLUDING FREEPER INPUT
SIX DAYS AWAY FROM NOV 7, here's my updated opinions on the races. Things have moved towards the GOP in my opinion.
[Note: We have 48 GOP seats besides these 12 that are either not up for reelection or they are not close enough to be in play.]
The SENATE "CONTESTS" (Ranked most likely GOP to least)
VA- R seat- ALLEN vs. Webb (90%) Webb is toast
MO- R seat- TALENT vs. McCaskill (70%) Michael J Fox backfired
TN- R seat- Corker vs. Ford (60%) "Playboy" Ford is making stupid moves
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Keep 51 seat GOP control ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
(Note: need two of three for 50-50 Cheney majority, but this entails power-sharing in cmtes, etc)
MT- R seat- BURNS vs. Tester (55%) improving, Bush to visit next week
MD- D seat- Steele vs. Cardin (55%) improving, great ads
NJ- D seat- Kean vs. MENENDEZ (50%) steady, RINO v. crook- go with the RINO
PA- R seat- SANTORUM vs. Casey (50%) improving, Rick deserves win
^^^^^^^^^^^^ Needed to Maintain 55-45 GOP (status quo ratio) ^^^^^^^^^^^^
MI- D seat- Bouchard vs. STABENOW (50%) Bouchard surging!
RI- R seat- CHAFEE vs. Whitehouse (40%) lib v. lib- who cares?
OH- R seat- DEWINE vs. Brown (40%) I hope DeWine pulls it out, but it looks unlikely from here
WA- D seat- McGavick vs. CANTWELL (25%) hard to get traction
MN- D seat- Kennedy vs. Klobuchar* (25%) improving but way behind
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Attain 60 seat majority ^^^^^^^^^^^
SAFE GOP SEATS
AZ- (R= current seatholder)- Kyl safe
IN- R- Lugar safe
ME- R- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 8 safe + 40 carryovers = 48 minimum GOP
SAFE DEM/INDEPENDENT SEATS
CA- (D=current status)- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman(I) or Lamont(D) safe
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- Akaka safe
MA- D- Kennedy safe
NE- D- Nelson safe (sorry FL Freepers- prove me wrong!)
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WI- D- Kohl safe
WV- D- Byrd safe
VT- Ind- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders-Soc safe
DEMS: 13 safe + 27 carryovers = 40 minimum DEM
I think we lose in RI, OH, MN, and WA. (-2: RI, OH)
Net +1 in the Senate. I will only make one more set of predictions on Monday night Nov 6th.
GOTV!
PA and MI won't be won by the GOP. We'll be lucky to win either NJ or MD; at this point the likely outcome is 52 seats in the Senate.
Man i hope your right. These polls make me think the U.S.A. has gone soft. I cannot believe some of these races!
You are being a bit optimistic, particularly with Sanstrom. Rick is gaining, but he is nowhere near a 50-50 shot. Unfortunately, he is probably a good 5 points back. I like the GOP chances at keeping the Senate, probably 51 seats GOP, 47 Dem, 2 Ind.
Your a really cheery soul...get a grip please..... the first vote hasn't even been counted and you have us losing several states.
You have your apology to FL FReepers next to the wrong Nelson.
"VA- R seat- ALLEN vs. Webb (90%) Webb is toast "
I wish I could shall your optimism. Allen must have seen something bad in the internals last week because beside this Roanoke college poll they all show Webb in the lead the lst couple of days it seems.
House races???
Who's the 2nd I? Jeffords is leaving.
Don't mean to undercut your thread, cause these threads are fantastic, and your work is awesome, but I'd invite to participate in this challenge... http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1730413/posts
I forgot Jeffords is done. OK 52/47/1
This has been a great week for the GOP here and we are gonna win that State Senate seat.
I give this as an example that we are surging at the finish line and we can win alot of these close House and Senate races if we continue to push hard to the very end.
Rob, I welcome and admire your continued optimism. My read is that we are stable or leading in TN, MO and VA (glad you believe Allen is in better shape than I do); we will lose PA, OH, and RI; carry MT in a squeaker; and win two of the following three in this likely order: MD, MI, and NJ.
Therefore, net -1 or 54-46. Which would be almost miraculous.
Don't shoot the messenger - I'm just being realistic. MD and NJ are deep blue states. Santorum will need a major gaffe by Casey to win, and MI has not been in play all season (rumor is that one recent poll has it tied). I'm simply looking at the facts in evidence and projecting the likely outcome.
"I think we win in VA, MO, TN, MT, MD, NJ, PA, and MI. (+3: MD, NJ, MI)
I think we lose in RI, OH, MN, and WA. (-2: RI, OH)
Net +1 in the Senate. I will only make one more set of predictions on Monday night Nov 6th.
GOTV!"
From your lips to God's ears, buddy. This would be a great result if we did it.
I would be thrilled to see the nemesis of the left, Santorum, be the comeback kid and defeat the emtpy suit incompetent Casey ....
Pray for victory!
Dear NittanyLion,
In Maryland, I believe that Mr. Steele has the momentum. Unless Mr. Cardin can do something to stop the hemmoraging in the next six days, I believe that it is more likely than not that Mr. Steele will win.
The endorsement from Mr. Curry and all five black members of the all-Democrat Prince George's County Council make it likely that Mr. Steele will be something close to competitive in Prince George's County. As well, with that critical endorsement, it seems difficult to believe that Mr. Steele will not get 25% of the black vote.
Finally, it appears that the black vote will be reduced as many blacks who refuse to vote Republican also are refusing to vote against a black man by voting for Mr. Cardin.
Still six days to go, but it's actually looking like Mr. Steele may pull this off.
sitetest
Don't write off Ohio. DeWine is gaining ground.
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