You are being a bit optimistic, particularly with Sanstrom. Rick is gaining, but he is nowhere near a 50-50 shot. Unfortunately, he is probably a good 5 points back. I like the GOP chances at keeping the Senate, probably 51 seats GOP, 47 Dem, 2 Ind.
Who's the 2nd I? Jeffords is leaving.
Santorum is 8 back by WSJ, but even in a Dem state, you have to adjust for poll error, so your estimate of 5 is likely ok. But the key is, he's finally moved, and moved a LOT.