Posted on 11/01/2006 6:50:13 PM PST by NYC Republican
I haven't seen this type of thing posted yet, so... here goes... hopefully the mods will be cool with it.
I'd like to have a challenge, whoever predicts the closest to the actual results gets a $500 prize- cash, from yours truly.
Here's how it works... The first 200 posters (one per person) that submit their predictions are in the contest.
You have to make a prediction on the Senate balance of power (the Ind would be in the D column), and as a tie breaker, you would make a prediction on each of the following races, including percentages for each candidate.
PA - Santorum (R-I) vs. Casey (D)
TN - Corker (R) vs. Ford (D) - open seat
MT - Burns (R-I) vs. Tester (D)
VA - Allen (R-I) vs. Webb (D)
RI - Chaffee (R-I) vs. Whitehouse (D)
MO - Talent (R-I) vs. McCaskill (D)
NJ - Kean (R) vs. Menendez (D)
Here are the rules:
- First, the best score on the Senate's balance of power.
- Tie-breaker is whomever gets the most Senate races correct.
- Next tie-breaker is overall point spread - cumulative, in all races (can you tell I'm a football fan?). I'll do all of the stats...
- First 200 predictions will be tallied.
- Must be in by Sunday night.
- Winner gets $500.
- If the GOP maintains both houses, then I'll give an additional $300 to the 2nd place winner and $200 to the 3rd place finisher... I'll be THAT happyh
Please try to keep it in the same format, makes my job easier.
Any questions?
Senate - R 51 D 49
Santorum 47 Casey 52
Corker 50 Ford 48
Burns 52 Tester 48
Allen 50 Webb 49
Chaffee 49 Whitehouse 50
Talent 51 McCaskill 48
Kean 45 Menendez 53
Doubt I'll even be close, but what the hell. Great idea :)
Er yes about Santorum (I failed to delete a cut and paste). :) This is an out of the box contest "prediction." Anybody can just go with the CW. I also cut Klobuchar's margin from yours this time just for the hell of it.
OH: DeWine 46 Brown 53
MD: Steele 50 Cardin 49
MI: Bouchard 46 Stabenow 53
AZ: Kyl 54 Pederson 45
MN: Kennedy 43 Klobuchar 55
WA: McGavick 44 Cantwell 54
NE: Ricketts 44 Nelson 56
NV: Ensign 54 Carter 45
CT: Lieberman 49 Lamont 42
Santorum 46 Casey 54
Corker 52 Ford 46
Burns 50 Tester 49
Allen 48 Webb 50
Chafee 46 Whitehouse 54
Talent 49 McCaskill 50
Kean 47 Menendez 50
R 51 D 49 total gop hangs on
Santorum 46 Casey 53
Corker 52 Ford47
Burns 50 Tester 49
Allen 48 Webb 51
Chaffe 46 Whitehouse 53
Talent 50 MacCaskill 49
Kean 49 Menendez 50
Oops. Forgot to mention that I'm considering Lieberman as a dem in my senate guess.
It's cool. I was just a bit surprised is all, since I didn't realize that you thought Maryland was all that close and last time you commented on Burns you'd pretty much written him off (if I recall correctly, which I might not). Granted the Burns renaissance is a very recent phenomenon.
As I look over all the forecasts I also find it remarkable how many people are predicting Webb to carry Virginia; I also find it bizarre how many people are predicting Santorum's survival.
My personal opinion of both Burns and Allen has not changed. My personal opinion of Steele has. Enough said.
Senate - R 52 D 46 L/I 2
Santorum 45 Casey 54
Corker 51 Ford 47
Burns 48 Tester 50
Allen 50 Webb 47
Chafee 47 Whitehouse 52
Talent 49.5 McCaskill 49
Kean 48 Menendez 50
And when you are finished voting, please take a gander over here where a group of FReepers are banding together to fight diseases like Alzheimer's and BSE:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1721959/posts
</ shameless plug for protein folding>
Folding as we speak, FRiend. I'm more optimistic than you, though.
Santorum 43 Casey 57
Corker 52 Ford 46
Burns 47 Tester 52
Allen 48 Webb 51
Chaffee 45 Whitehouse 55
Talent 51 McCaskill 48
Kean 45 Menendez 53
Steele's 51 over Cardin's 49 means Dick Cheney won't be so frequently distracted by Senate votes from writing his next bestseller: The Ultimate Lame Duck: Why Americans Don't Like Indefinite, Costly and Poorly Managed Occupations and How We Came to Discover This in 2006.
Republicans 55
Democrats 44 (45 including Lieberman)
Independent 1
PA - Santorum 48.2% Casey 48%
TN - Corker 53% Ford 46%
MT - Burns 50% Tester 48%
VA - Allen 51% Webb 48%
RI - Chaffee 42% Whitehouse 57%
MO - Talent 51% McCaskill 48.5%
NJ - Kean 50% Menendez 48%
Man, you're optimistic!
Senate - R 52 D 48
PA - Santorum 50.1 vs. Casey 49.9
TN - Corker 53 vs. Ford 47
MT - Burns 46 vs. Tester 54
VA - Allen 53 vs. Webb 47
RI - Chaffee 44 vs. Whitehouse 56
MO - Talent 52 vs. McCaskill 48
NJ - Kean 51 vs. Menendez 49
The pollsters say I am dead wrong. We'll see.
My extended picks:
OH: DeWine 49 Brown 50
MD: Steele 52 Cardin 46
MI: Bouchard 50.5 Stabenow 49.5
AZ: Kyl 57 Pederson 43
MN: Kennedy 45 Klobuchar 54
WA: McGavick 47 Cantwell 51
NE: Ricketts 41 Nelson 57
NV: Ensign 58 Carter 41
CT: Lieberman 48 Lamont 37
Ok, Here is my prediction:
Senate Rep 52 Dem 48 (including Independent)
PA - Santorum 48 vs. Casey 52
TN - Corker 52 vs. Ford 48 - open seat
MT - Burns 51 vs. Tester 49
VA - Allen 50.5 vs. Webb 49.5
RI - Chaffee 47 vs. Whitehouse 53
MO - Talent 50.8 vs. McCaskill 49.2
NJ - Kean 50.3 vs. Menendez 49.7
I hope it goes better than this though.
I prefer to be optimistic and Kerry is an idiot on parade again so here goes:
Republicans 54, Democrats/Independents 46
PA - Santorum 49 vs. Casey 50
TN - Corker 52 vs. Ford 46 - open seat
MT - Burns 49 vs. Tester 48
VA - Allen 53 vs. Webb 46
RI - Chaffee 46 vs. Whitehouse 53
MO - Talent 51 vs. McCaskill 49
NJ - Kean 51 vs. Menendez 49
I prefer to be optimistic and Kerry is an idiot on parade again so here goes:
Republicans 54, Democrats/Independents 46
PA - Santorum 49 vs. Casey 50
TN - Corker 52 vs. Ford 46 - open seat
MT - Burns 49 vs. Tester 48
VA - Allen 53 vs. Webb 46
RI - Chaffee 46 vs. Whitehouse 53
MO - Talent 51 vs. McCaskill 49
NJ - Kean 51 vs. Menendez 49
My prediction
R 59 Dems 39 Ind 2
PA
Santorum 50 Casey 49
TN
Corker 54 Ford 45
MT
Burns 51 Tester 48
VA
Allen 53 Webb 47
RI
Chaffee 48 Whitehouse 51
MO
Talent 54 McCaskill 43
NJ
Kean 53 Menendez 47
Minnesota
Kennedy 50 Koubacker (how does one spell her name?) 49
Maryland
Steele 54 Cardin 45
Michigan
Bouchard 53 Stabenow 47
Washington
McGavick 51 Cantwell 48
Plus the GOP gains 3 in the House
There is a huge fallout from this Kerry fiasco.
rethink those numbers unless you geniunely think Lieberman will be defeated in CT
Thanks. Joe will win and he's a democrat.
Joe has already said he will caucus with the Dims.
Sanders has always been an "independent socialist."
LOL
What 4 Democrat seats do you see the GOP picking up? Your pick's indicate a wash.
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