Posted on 10/31/2006 1:29:11 AM PST by YaYa123
After all their ads, attacks and debates, Missouri's two major candidates for the U.S. Senate are heading into the campaign homestretch in roughly the same spot as they were almost a year ago — deadlocked.
U.S. Sen. Jim Talent, a Republican, and his Democratic rival, state Auditor Claire McCaskill, also are finding their battle increasingly entwined with the fight over Amendment 2, the ballot proposal to protect all forms of stem cell research allowed under federal law.
The latest Research 2000 poll conducted for the Post-Dispatch and KMOV (Channel 4) found voters evenly split over whether to re-elect Talent or replace him with McCaskill. That's little different from earlier polls.
Of the 800 voters polled last week, 47 percent favored Talent and 47 percent preferred McCaskill. Two percent supported Libertarian Frank Gilmour, and 4 percent were undecided.
But compared with earlier polls, support has declined for Amendment 2, with just over half — 51 percent — of poll participants backing the measure and 35 percent opposed.
The percentage of opposition has changed little from Research 2000's earlier polls. But the number of undecided has jumped dramatically to 14 percent
(Excerpt) Read more at stltoday.com ...
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And speaking of polls....
I've been waiting, waiting, waiting, for an update here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/#tn
none of the most important polls have been updated since 28 October. It's as if the biggies decided to stop polling after there seemed to be a shift toward republicans.
That's less risky for them than getting caught cooking them again.
I think instead of looking and worrying about the polls, we need reports on how early voting is going in Missouri. According to Drudge republicans have an edge right now nationwide. If people on the ground in key battle ground states could tell us how things are going, how strong GOP intensity is, we'd have a much better idea of how things are going to turn out.
Research 2000, from my experience leans their polls to the Dems. I think this race is no exception.
Depends on the race I guess. Rasmussen released some polls in Virginia which put Webb up by 5. Is that what you're looking for?
I can't wait for the morning of November 8th, not only to see the DUmmies need straitjackets, but to hear the crickets from the media poll worshippers and doom and gloomers on FR.
The webb/Allen race reminds me of the Allard race in 02, when the doom and gloomers on FR were saying that Allard was going to lose and that he was behind in the polls. Allard won by 5%.
A lot of people on one side or the other are going to be eating a lot of crow, that's for sure.
The webb/Allen race reminds me of the Allard race in 02, when the doom and gloomers on FR were saying that Allard was going to lose and that he was behind in the polls. Allard won by 5%.
Allard put together a great campaign, there is no doubt about that. Part of his success was picking up close to 30% of the Hispanic vote by supporting programs that benefitted them. Talent's campaign, on the other hand, has been respectable but so has McCaskill's. Neither side has made any major mistakes. But if Talent loses then I think it'll be due to two things - the Stem Cell Amendment and the fact that Talent has downplayed his being a Republican. He chose to follow the tactic of emphasising his bi-partisan efforts and working across party lines and supporting give-away programs like the Prescription Drug plan, and has said almost nothing about supporting the president. Take a person totally unfamiliar with Missouri politics, show them a series of campaign commercials for Talent and McCaskill, and I think they would be hard pressed to identify Republican from Democrat.
Good morning...one thing to remember about all these polls, and why they are basically useless. In any close race, the key factor is turnout...Look, 50 million LESS voters will turn out for this race than in 2004, so how the heck can you predict who comes out? This gives the GOP a big plus, because of their better GOTV operation...also, most so called "independents" tend to favor the Dems. They are overweighted in the polls, and are less inclined to come out and vote in off-year elections. The GOP "broken glass Republicans" OTOH, are eager..when I read about a tied racer..I impute the GOP candidate with a 2-4 point advantage..
I put little stock in polls too, but my interest in them is different. I read polls, not for their predictive value, but how the numbers will impact voters, especially the undecided ones.
Example: I loved the ones from a few weeks back that predicted "tsunamis", " # 5 blue waves", with huge losses for republican candidates. I figure those kinds of polls would fill dem voters with over-confidence and even give them the "why bother voting?" arrogance.
Did you read Barrones take on all of these polls? He thinks that there is a good chance they are ALL wrong.
This Rove exchange took place yesterday.
Lib reporter: "How can you be so positive Mr. Rove? I read the same polls that you do".
Rove: "No you don't! I read 68 different polls every day... and they do not show what these media driven polls show"!
LLS
There's also the chance that they're all right, too. We don't know. We won't know for sure until next week. I just find it amusing that people can be agreeing with Rush that the polls are moving in our favor one week while dismissing polls by the same company the following week. Any one with any background in statistics will tell you that poll results that fall within the margin of error are a statistical tossup. That covers most of the races out there.
Rove: "No you don't! I read 68 different polls every day... and they do not show what these media driven polls show"!
And if they did, what would you expect Rove to say? "I read 68 polls every day and they show we're toast in Missouri and Ohio and Pennsylvania?" Would Dean get up there and say, "Gee, polls show we're dead meat in Maryland and New Jersey?" Hell no!. You want to know how races are going? Follow the money. The GOP is no longer funding commercials in the Ohio and Pennsylvania senate races. They've written them off. They're pouring money into New Jersey and Maryland. They think those two are winnable. The Dems are dumping cash into Missouri and Tennessee, they think they're in a good position there. They're not spending much in Arizona, so they've written that one off. That says more than any poll data.
ping a ling
I KNOW my President would not lie and neither would Rove. I expect them to act like they always have... honestly and with integrity.
I can say that I expect the same-old-same-old from you too!
LLS
Of course you do.
I can say that I expect the same-old-same-old from you too!
Well I'm glad to see that I don't disappoint. I hope you won't be disappointed on election night, either.
I hope our Republican house and senate majorities hold, but this had sure better be a wake up call to the Republicans, or it won't hold next election.
If we retain control I will be HAPPY. How do you stand on the situation? Will you be gloating at the lesson you taught Republicans if SPEAKER PELOSI takes over? Will you be happy if we retain control in the House?
LLS
I would be happiest with a conservative house and a conservative senate, but I know that isn't going to happen. Failing that I'm not thrilled with the idea of a Speaker Pelosi. In any case there isn't a lot I can do to change the course.
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