Good morning...one thing to remember about all these polls, and why they are basically useless. In any close race, the key factor is turnout...Look, 50 million LESS voters will turn out for this race than in 2004, so how the heck can you predict who comes out? This gives the GOP a big plus, because of their better GOTV operation...also, most so called "independents" tend to favor the Dems. They are overweighted in the polls, and are less inclined to come out and vote in off-year elections. The GOP "broken glass Republicans" OTOH, are eager..when I read about a tied racer..I impute the GOP candidate with a 2-4 point advantage..
I put little stock in polls too, but my interest in them is different. I read polls, not for their predictive value, but how the numbers will impact voters, especially the undecided ones.
Example: I loved the ones from a few weeks back that predicted "tsunamis", " # 5 blue waves", with huge losses for republican candidates. I figure those kinds of polls would fill dem voters with over-confidence and even give them the "why bother voting?" arrogance.