RealClearPolitics Posts Polling Data on Current Rep. House Seats -- 8 "Lean Dem," 16 "Toss Up"

RealClearPolitics.com ^ | October 28, 2006 | RCP Polling Links

[MaineVoter2002]

I was just in USENET/GOOGLE NEWSGROUPS searching political posts 4 years ago between Oct. 28th 2002 and the 2002 election where the dems lost so big. Interesting FLASHBACK articles.

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ping

[GraniteStateConservative]

There were only 4 Dem seats that were considered possible pickups during this cycle-- Barrow and Marshall in GA, Bean in IL and Boswell in IA. That's a short as the list was. All 4 are considered safe now by 8 points or greater.

[speekinout]

we may be better off from a strategic standpoint having the RATs control the House for two years.

How so? The House can cut off all spending for Iraq and spend 2 years on Impeachment proceedings. That would be a disaster.
They could also add all kinds of Liberal ideas to spending bills, but that's the kind of nonsense that would benefit the GOP in the long run.

[HitmanLV]

RCP has 3 of those (I think) 'leaning dem.' Which 'leaning GOP' seats do you think the dems will win?

[tobyhill]

Rats gain 8 House seats tops and 2 in the Senate. When people start really thinking about how to run the country most they don't want the San Fransisco/Massachusetts type politicians spreading their socialist, pro-abortion, gay agenda.

[MNJohnnie]

Here the problem. RCP's projections are all based on Junk polling. So Garbage in/Garbage out. For example the ONLY poll on MN 6, a primarily RED district polls Reps and Dems EVEN. Utter garbage.

[MNJohnnie]

Curious. You always put the most favorable possible spin on Democrat chances in your posting. What do you do for a living that qualifies you to make forecasts on the out come of Elections?

I don't hear an observer reading your stuff, I hear a partisan cheerleader. Be here Nov 8th to defend your posting. Don't vanish like all your Democrat predecessors always do the day after the election.

[MNJohnnie]

I followed the polling links and they do not show your 18 seat forecast at all. How is it you see something no one else can reading the data?

Suspect your are confusing what you HOPE with reality.

[NeoCaveman]

RCP has 3 of those (I think) 'leaning dem.' Which 'leaning GOP' seats do you think the dems will win?

I don't think the Dems will win any of the 'leaning GOP but I think there best shots in that catagory are: Cubin (WY-AL), OH-2 Schmidt, and maybe NY-20 Sweeney. These are all good GOP districts with problematic candidates. KY-4 Davis makes me a little nervous too.

[HitmanLV]

That's fair. they list my congressman, Porter as 'leaning GOP' but I am very confident he will retain.

[damper99]

I think Norhup is a likely loss, and a sleeper is the district just south of Louisville (KY2). Not on anyone's radar, but Colonel Weaver (D) is probably going to take that from Lewis (R).

[right-wingin_It]

If you look at the republicans in the "toss-up column" you will find many with a slight lead, and particularly so in the non-partisan polling results for likely voters. While the results for each "toss-up republican" showing a lead may be within margin of error to justify a toss-up, collectively to have so many republicans with a lead (however so slight) still tells me something.

You can't just cut the tossup column in half giving 8 to each party. Dems can at best only get a small handful from that toss-up column.

[NeoCaveman]

That's fair. they list my congressman, Porter as 'leaning GOP' but I am very confident he will retain.

Well the reason why I considered rejecting the premis outright is twofold

RCP averages include Survey USA polls, which have gone all over the map and there is a time lag. Looking at these averages (if the polling was perfect) would still be like looking in the rear view mirror a week or so back.

Also, they have not caught on to (or anyone else either) the Eric Dickerson phenomena in IN-7, he might not win but that race is a toss up - with two polls giving Dickerson the lead over incumbent Carson who is in the mid 40's. It's a strange race that doesn't fit the media template.

[investigateworld]

I'm going to go with Limbaugh and predict a 50 to 56 seat pick up.
Never doubt a Roveian October surprise.

[lonestar67]

It is difficult to describe how utterly meaningless the polls on the House are.

RCP is a compilation of junk polls. 60 percent of Americans think their local rep is good while they think most congressional members are bad.

Most peoople do not know right now who there local house member is.

The idea that someone now knows who is going to win the House is absolute bogus hysteria.

The overwhelming empirical probability is that incumbants will win-- period.

That is all we know.

[StJacques]

"Jaques, thy key word is CURRENT my friend. Since when do we vote on the last Saturday of October?"

Did I forget to mention that it is my opinion that we have momentum on our side? Two weeks ago RealClearPolitics was projecting the Dems to pick up 6 Senate seats, now that's down to four with Maryland very nearly competitive and New Jersey genuinely competitive. That's two Dem Senate seats in play.

We really need to finish strong.

[AdvisorB]

RCP has FL16 (Foley/Negron) in the lean democrat column. I have been working on this campaign for the last week, and I can tell you that we have a better chance in this district than we do in FL13 (Harris/Buchanan). FL13 experienced a grueling, bitter primary, a primary that has negatively impacted the GOP base in the district. President Bush stumped for Vern last Wednesday in Sarasota because Vern's numbers are sagging. If I had to guess, I would say that State Representative Joe Negron (FL16) has a better chance at victory. I was at the Palm Beach County Supervisors Office (had to go through security as if I were going on an international flight, complete with magnetron) on the first day of early voting, and the large precinct was overflowing with voters, hispanic (Cuban) voters. Negron's voters had turned out in droves.

[AdvisorB]

Ann Northrup's tv ad against her opponent is devastating. I think it's the best ad I've seen this election cycle.