That's fair. they list my congressman, Porter as 'leaning GOP' but I am very confident he will retain.
Well the reason why I considered rejecting the premis outright is twofold
RCP averages include Survey USA polls, which have gone all over the map and there is a time lag. Looking at these averages (if the polling was perfect) would still be like looking in the rear view mirror a week or so back.
Also, they have not caught on to (or anyone else either) the Eric Dickerson phenomena in IN-7, he might not win but that race is a toss up - with two polls giving Dickerson the lead over incumbent Carson who is in the mid 40's. It's a strange race that doesn't fit the media template.