Replies

"I followed the polling links and they do not show your 18 seat forecast at all. How is it you see something no one else can reading the data?"

First of all, it is not my "18 seat forecast." In fact I made no forecast nor did I say that RealClearPolitics did. They only present poll results on the page of links I put up. Here's what I wrote:

". . . you will see that according to most recent polling data the Democrats are in good shape to pick up between 16 - 18 seats . . ."

I revealed what the polling data says, and that holds up. You take the 8 seats RCP lists as "leaning Dem" and the look at the following:

NY-24 - Dem +11
IA-1 - Dem up from 7 to 11 in all but Zogby and in only poll since Oct. 2
OH-15 - Dem +12 in only poll since 9/24
IN-2 - In all polls from 9/25 to present Dem up from 1 to 16 pts.
NM-1 - Dem is up 3 to 10 pts. in every poll since 9/25.
IN-9 - Dem is up in every poll listed this year, +4 in most recent.
NC-11 - Dem is up in every poll listed this year, +8 & +11 in two most recent.
PA-6 - Dem is up 2 to 6 pts. in every poll since 9/25.

That makes 16 pickups for the Dems right there -- if the polling data holds, and I'm hoping it doesn't.

Then we take a look at:

FL-13 - Dem has led 3 to 11 pts. in every poll listed
CT-4 - Shays tied most recent poll, hasn't led since 10/1, CT is not friendly territory

And 18 becomes a real possibility.

"Suspect your are confusing what you HOPE with reality."

Johnnie, I can't believe you said that to me. Follow the links and see that all of the above are true renditions of the polling data.

I'm not discussing polling results so that we can all sit down and reassure each other everything is going to be ok. I think we've got to work our a$$e$ off because the polls say we're in trouble.