Posted on 10/25/2006 9:38:25 AM PDT by LS
We are now two weeks out and there have been several interesting developments, all posted here on FR in the last 24 hours. Let me review a couple of them, and then "connect the dots," and suggest what might happen.
We have seen Zogby pull a poll today because it was "oversampled for Republicans."
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1725448/posts
Fine. How many of these were not caught, and were oversampled for Dems? I have argued for three months that the pollsters, all of them, are using out-of-date voter registration models that oversample Dems by 5-10%. I thought they would have learned their lessons from 2004, especially people like Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato, but nooooooooooo!
Next: We have seen that "voter intensity" analysis shows, far from "staying home," GOP voter intensity is even higher than in 2004---and it was already higher than the Dems' intensity by 1.5-2%. Now it's up to a 4% advantage.
When you combine what I think is oversampling of Dems by pollsters with the "voter intensity," I think ALL of the polls are off by a good 5%, minimum, in the direction of the D.
How will that voter intensity be affected if, early on, all hope of getting the Senate disappears? For example, say we have early returns showing either Steele or Kean (or both) winning; or Santorum or DeWine holding? Of Corker and Allen winning fairly easily (as I think now will be the case)? Will we see a ripple effect? I think so.
Probably because they are less visible, you might not have as much impact from some early Dem losses in CT (for ex., Shays and Johnston) or in NY (Reynolds), combined with, say, the losses of one or both seats by the Dems in trouble in GA, but there will be some impact nonetheless. In short, if, before the races are decided in the midwest and west, it becomes clear that the Dems can't win, you may well see a monstrous disillusionment on the part of the Dems "voter intensity," which could decisively tilt the field in western/mid-western races.
If that happens, Bean in IL, the three races in IN (all an hour behind OH), the races in IO, and the races in CO may all be affected.
Yes as is the one posted by Common Tator.
Since your post will be written on 11/25, tell us how it came out! :^)
http://www.rollcall.com/electionmap/NY.html
26th District
Incumbent: Tom Reynolds (R)
National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman, US-House
4th term (56 percent)
Outlook: Tossup
Due in part to his role in the scandal surrounding former Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.), Reynolds faces real peril in November. His Democratic challenger, factory owner Jack Davis (D), is a free-spending millionaire who has been leading in recent polls — by as much as 15 points in one published in the Buffalo News on Oct. 8. It’s hard to imagine such a powerful figure in Western New York politics losing, but it is at least possible. Davis’ anti-free trade message also appears to be playing well in a district that has been hit hard by manufacturing losses. On the other hand, Davis is eccentric to say the least, and the wily Reynolds may wind up getting the best of him.
This gives me more hope for Rick Santorum in PA.
Are these the two running against the vulnerable Dems?
Doh. Spelled it wrong. jmaroneps37
Doh. Spelled it wrong. jmaroneps37
I saw something about three days ago on one of the blogs with numbers showing him now well up. I think that was a complete blip in polling due to the Foley thing, but it apparently has disappeared now.
>>Dem's cheat - that's their phrase... It's not our way.
How about...
Friends don't let friends vote Democrat!
Great post... from your pc to god's ear.
I just ordered your book "A Patriot's History" last night as a Christmas gift for my dad. I know he'll love it! He's a university professor as well, and is very likely the only conservative in the building... maybe even on the block since it's on the Upper West Side. Anyhow, I may have to pre-read it before I wrap it up for him! :)
Yes, that's been a problem. We've had mild winters the last few years. Hopefully, this year we'll have a real winter and they'll go back!
Phonetically, it's "cheer rin"
I LUV your tagline!!
I like your take, hope it comes to fruition.
I'm becoming more convinced that the misrepresentation of the polls is a planned tactic so that when the Republicans don't lose the House and Senate the MSM and their partners in crime, the Democrats, can scream voter fraud.
**
I think you are definitely onto something there. I think Bush's wins in 2000 and 2004 would have been a lot more lopsided were it not for the immense Rat voter fraud machine. It just so happened that the turnout for Bush was just large enough to overwhelm all of the fraudulent Rat votes, especially in precincts where turnout was mysteriously 100% or more.
Works for me...
I live in Indianapolis and Gary and Evansville stayed in the Central Time Zone and are always an hour behind Indpls now where they used to be with Indpls in the Summer and an hour behind in the Winter. Part of both the 2nd and 8th are in the Central Time Zone and part in the Eastern TIme Zone. I think that all of the 9th is in the ETZ, but I could be wrong about the far western areas I am not sure how far west it goes.
I personally hated the change. I liked not changing clocks. I fish in MI and TN in the Spring and Fall and liked having the extra hour when I was traveling to those states, but nobody asked me.
Lol.
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