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Zogby poll on Walsh-Maffei race invalid (Upstate NY House race)
Syracuse Post-Standard ^ | 10/25/06 | Frederic Pierce

Posted on 10/25/2006 3:25:53 AM PDT by jalisco555

Zogby International inaccurately conducted a poll of likely voters in the 25th Congressional District, forcing The Post-Standard and NewsChannel 9 the poll's sponsors to scrap a planned release of the results Tuesday evening.

Zogby, a Utica-based firm that does work throughout the world, used the wrong political party breakdown when weighing survey responses, and gave the news organizations results the company founder later said were incorrect.

"The numbers were wrong," said John Zogby, the firm's founder and president. "We made a mistake, and I feel terrible about it. I am mortified."

A Zogby staffer mistakenly used party enrollment figures from the 24th Congressional District to adjust survey results in the 25th District, Zogby said. That gave Republican voters in the sample too much weight, skewing the results.

The incorrect results were reported by NewsChannel 9 at the beginning of its 5 p.m. broadcast and briefly on Syracuse.com. They were quickly corrected. Zogby agreed Tuesday to do an entirely new poll. The Post-Standard and Channel 9 will publish the results once they are certain the survey was done properly.

The poll was an effort to measure how voters may vote in the race between Republican Rep. Jim Walsh and Democratic challenger Dan Maffei. The error was brought to Zogby's attention by the Maffei campaign.


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: congress; polls; walsh; zogby; zogbyspecialsauce
The mighty Zogby caught in an error? Something to think about when you read the polls.
1 posted on 10/25/2006 3:25:54 AM PDT by jalisco555
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To: jalisco555

He only admitted it because it showed the Republican with the lead.


2 posted on 10/25/2006 3:29:10 AM PDT by Cowboy Bob (Liberalism in a parasite that ALWAYS kills its host.)
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To: Cowboy Bob
He only admitted it because it showed the Republican with the lead.

Of course. Next step is to properly "adjust" the party affiliations to fix that problem.

3 posted on 10/25/2006 3:30:41 AM PDT by jalisco555 ("Dogs look up to us, cats look down on us and pigs treat us as equals" Winston Churchill)
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To: jalisco555

Al Zawgbi?


4 posted on 10/25/2006 3:34:25 AM PDT by SIDENET (Is it too early for flapjacks?)
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To: jalisco555

Ow....OW...my eyes hurt from rolling back in my head...

Polls are nearly uniformly crap. I pay absolutely no attention to ANY polls. I am sick and tired of reading rubbish about polls. I, for one, am gratified that even with all his percieved faults, President Bush does not appear to be a slave to polls as his predecessor clearly was.


5 posted on 10/25/2006 3:35:30 AM PDT by rlmorel (Islamofacism: It is all fun and games until someone puts an eye out. Or chops off a head.)
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To: jalisco555

Hmmm... they might do this on purpose, so when the issue of incorrect weight is ever brought up, somebody can say, "well, from what I read, they oversampling the Republicans, not Democrats...!"


6 posted on 10/25/2006 3:38:00 AM PDT by paudio (Universal Human Rights and Multiculturalism: Liberals want to have cake and eat it too!)
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To: jalisco555

How can ANYONE imagine that Zogby has ANY credibility whatsoever???


7 posted on 10/25/2006 3:44:27 AM PDT by Mobile Vulgus
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To: Mobile Vulgus
How can ANYONE imagine that Zogby has ANY credibility whatsoever???

None of us here do. Looks like the recipe for his "secret sauce" has been revealed.

8 posted on 10/25/2006 3:49:05 AM PDT by jalisco555 ("Dogs look up to us, cats look down on us and pigs treat us as equals" Winston Churchill)
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To: rlmorel

Polls comissioned by the news media ARE NOT NEWS. They should go find some real news to report, not journalize.


9 posted on 10/25/2006 4:21:26 AM PDT by Paladin2 (Islam is the religion of violins, NOT peas.)
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To: Mobile Vulgus

What is the name of the liberal network he is part of?


10 posted on 10/25/2006 4:29:09 AM PDT by Thebaddog (Labrador Retrievers are the dog's dog)
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To: jalisco555

Yes, Zogby predicted a Kerry win also.


11 posted on 10/25/2006 5:41:27 AM PDT by MatD
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To: rlmorel

This poll was only pulled because the skewed results went the wrong way, had it been the Dims in the lead, dead silence.


12 posted on 10/25/2006 6:03:36 AM PDT by newcthem (Brought to you by the INFIDEL PARTY)
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To: newcthem

No kidding. If it weren't so irritating, the transparency would actually be quite funny.


13 posted on 10/25/2006 6:28:52 AM PDT by rlmorel (Islamofacism: It is all fun and games until someone puts an eye out. Or chops off a head.)
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To: paudio
they might do this on purpose, so when the issue of incorrect weight is ever brought up, somebody can say, "well, from what I read, they oversampling the Republicans, not Democrats...!"

Great point!!! Certainly worth watching out for.

14 posted on 10/25/2006 8:12:32 AM PDT by Just A Nobody (NEVER AGAIN...Support our Troops! www.irey.com and www.vets4irey.com - Now more than Ever!)
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To: jalisco555
Zogby called me in April for the Oh-2 primary in May. Trouble is, I live in OH-1. It's not even close, I am probably 10 miles from the closest part of OH-2. At least I was able to tell the pollster and adjust accordingly.

Survey USA also polled our home on that race, but it was automated.

Tellingly, Zogby was a lot closer to the final result than Survey USA was.

I've had a telephone in my name in the phone book for 15 years now and never got polled until a year ago. Now, I get polled regularly, but never for a race in which I can actually vote. Not sure which is more frustrating.

My parents say they've never been polled for a political race in 35 years, even though they've had a listed number and been registered democrats, registered Republicans and even independent at one time or another.

15 posted on 10/25/2006 8:45:16 AM PDT by GoBucks2002
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To: jalisco555

Secret sauce mixup!

"Hey, my Kung Pao chicken tastes like BBQ!"


16 posted on 10/25/2006 9:45:08 AM PDT by WOSG (Broken-glass time, Republicans! Save the Congress!)
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To: GoBucks2002

I get phoned by pollsters quite often.

I always ALWAYS answer the way a liberal democrat would... or refuse to answer at all. Sometimes I tell them I'm Republican, sometimes I tell them I'm "independent" or "moderate"...

Then the idiots wonder why they are so far off in their guesses as to the outcome of an election... LOL


17 posted on 10/25/2006 10:14:58 AM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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Comment #18 Removed by Moderator

To: jalisco555

Interesting that they have to do a "whole new poll" to correct the weighting. A clue as to Zogby's methods? They somehow "weight" on the front end?


19 posted on 10/25/2006 1:35:32 PM PDT by cookcounty (The Enemy stages the news because CNN stooges the news.)
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