New Mason Dixon Senate Polls 10/24

Mason Dixon ^

[GOPcomeback]

TN Corker 45 Ford 43 MT Tester 46 Burns 43 MO McCaskill 46 Talent 43 VA Allen 47 Webb 43 NJ Menendez 45 Kean 42 OH Brown 48 DeWine 40

[StJacques]

It's all very simple.

As things now stand, we Republicans are going to lose a minimum of four Senate seats; Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Even though some of you may want to argue Montana is in play, all recent polls have Tester leading Burns. So if the election were held today, those four seats are gone.

There have only been two Senate races for seats held by Democrats in which recent polls have given the Republicans any shot for a takeaway; Maryland, and New Jersey. Even though the most recent SurveyUSA poll has the Maryland race tied, the Democrat Cardin has held such large leads in so many other recent polls that I cannot believe the seat is within reach, though I expect a good showing from the Republican Steele. So we get no takeaways.

It all comes down to the two currently Republican seats of Missouri and Tennesse. Recent polls have been mixed, but there is evidence, as these Mason Dixon polls make clear that the Republican Corker is surging in Tennessee. If we hang on to that seat, we will at least have 50 Senate seats and will win with Cheney's tie-breaker vote. If Talent can pull it off in Missouri, and there have been recent polls which put him in the lead, then we'll have 51 and won't need the tie-breaker. But under no circumstances can we afford to lose in both Tennessee and Missouri.

It all comes down to Tennessee and Missouri. Skip everything else and pay attention to those two Senate races. That is where control of the Senate will be decided.

[noexcuses]

Washington: Maria Cantwell (D) leads Mike McGavick (R), 52% to 37%

I don't get this one. I suspect that many of the state's moderate democrats will vote for McGavick but don't want to tell the pollsters.

[JerseyDvl]

Me neither, who the hell is this guy? I had never heard of Brown before Hackett was thrown overboard.

[zook]

Another interesting / odd thing about this PA poll is that Bush's approval is at 43%. They want us to believe that Santorum (and Swan, who's running for governor) has a lower support rate than the president (39% and 35% respectively).

I find this hard to swallow.

[beltfed308]

Great lady. No support from the GOP. Hideous campaign. She should have remained a congresswoman.

She gets my vote as no way I would ever vote for Nelson. She has done good considering the lack of support from the GOP.

[Man50D]

Interesting and a cause for concern.

Keep in mind polls also had Dewey defeating Truman in the 1948 Presidential Election and exit polls had Gore defeating Bush in Florida in 2000. Take these polls with a grain of salt.

[LikeLight]

My house phone rang last evening - the caller ID said "Quinnipiac" - - - since they do lots of polling in PA, I thought, yes, at long last, I get to be polled - - - so I pick up the phone and say "Hello" and the girl says "Sorry, wrong number" - - - it was like she could tell I was FReeper by my voice!

[PJ-Comix]

These polls are almost as scientific as the 2004 exit polls.

[PJ-Comix]

All except Ohio are within the margin of error. Should be an interesting election night.

You actually believe these polls? You might as well consult a ouija board.

[PJ-Comix]

Interesting and a cause for concern.

I'm more concerned about my ouija board telling me I'll be stubbing my toe tomorrow.

[PJ-Comix]

I can't believe that Ohioans would go for Brown

I can't believe you actually take these polls seriously.

[PJ-Comix]

It Mason Dixon, knock 5 off the Dems rating and you are closer to reality.

BINGO! The way to look at these polls is to knock 5 points off the Dems, add 5 points to the Republicans, then add another 2 points to the Republicans due to GOTV. And that's a CONSERVATIVE estimate.

I just need to REMIND everyone that the supposedly "scientific" exit polls in the last election showed Kerry winning in a LANDSLIDE.

[PJ-Comix]

Not plausible whatsoever. The term "likely" voter in this case consists of merely asking, "Do you plan to vote?" Doesn't work. Most people of course say yes.

If I made a sale to everyone who promised FOR SURE to buy my products, I would be a multi-millionaire. All salesmen know that if you don't CLOSE the deal right there, you probably WON'T make the sale.

[LS]

Lol. You know the old maxim, never let 'em get off the lot.

[PJ-Comix]

C'mon, Mason-Dixon is pretty much the gold standard of polling firms. You might not like the results, but they have been pretty accurate and free of bias.

They'll get more accurate right BEFORE the election because their reputation is on the line. However, I wouldn't soil my pants worrying about their current numbers.

[PJ-Comix]

Umm, yeah. Tell me about it. To be blunt, nothing underscores the pathetic state of the GOP this year like how a Republican at 45% leading by two points in Tennessee is considered "good news"...

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! You actually believe the ouija polls that tell you NOTHING but the results the pollsters want to begin with? Oh, and give my congratulations to President Kerry who won in a landslide in the exit polls.

[PJ-Comix]

We only lead in 2....that is frankly a real worry.

Weren't you one of those worried about the exit polls results in 2004.

[StarFan]

All except Ohio are within the margin of error. Should be an interesting election night.

I hope we learn the results election night rather than a few days after. I suspect the MSM/DNC are laying groundwork that should their forecasts of a major dem sweep not come about, it could only mean GOP hanky panky AGAIN.

[mad_as_he$$]

What about PA. I thought Rick had closed that to about an 8 point spread.