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Al Qaeda Tries To Learn From Defeat (Why they will NOT win)
Strategy Page ^

Posted on 10/23/2006 8:39:30 AM PDT by Valin

October 23, 2006: Islamic radicals are still trying to figure out what they did wrong in Algeria. There, in 1992, the generals and old revolutionaries (who had led the fight against French colonialism three decades earlier), refused to respect a democratic vote, that gave Islamic political parties control of the government. Islamic radicals then led a decade long terror campaign that left over 100,000 people dead (mostly civilians, slaughtered by terrorists for not supporting the cause). Over 20,000 Islamic radicals died as well. The Islamic radicals lost. There are still about a thousand of them in Algeria, but they spend most of their time avoiding capture, and terrorist attacks are rare. The people are still angry with the corrupt government, but they are even more unhappy with the Islamic radicals, whose brutality exceeded anything the government ever resorted to. While the government was dishonest and inefficient, the Islamic radicals were terrifying. As has happened in several other Moslem countries, the population eventually rejected the terrorists, and the Islamic radicals were all arrested, killed, or forced to flee the country. Most Algerian Islamic terrorists are now outside the country, mainly in Europe, either as refugees, or illegals.

The recent merger of the Algerian Islamic terrorist organization (the GSPC) with al Qaeda (complete with some fanfare, in the form of an official announcement) has led to some public debate, by Islamic radicals, about what "went wrong" in Algeria. The GSPC had been in touch with Osama bin Laden since the late 1990s, and it was bin Laden who advised the tough approach to civilians who would not support the GSPC. This led to entire villages being wiped out by GSPC killers, to set an example. Interestingly, bin Laden never let many GSPC members into al Qaedas inner circle. Bin Laden knew that the Algerian police had infiltrated the GSPC, and didn't want one of those cops to get close to him. But now, both GSPC and al Qaeda are down and out, and hope that joining forces will enable them to turn things around.

In the last thirty years, only two Islamic radical groups have succeeded in taking control. This first happened in Iran, during the 1980s, when the Moslem clergy seized power during the war with Iraq. While widely unpopular, this government is still in power. The second success was in 1996, when the Taliban defeated all the other factions in the Afghan civil war, and remained in power until overthrown in late 2001, by an anti-Taliban alliance, American air power, and 300 Special Forces operators and CIA agents. In Egypt, Algeria, Syria, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, the Islamic radicals failed in their attempts to take over. An Islamic coalition is currently trying to take control of Somalia, but so far has had only partial success. Similarly, in the Palestinian territories, the Islamic radicals have only been partially successful in taking over. The major effort these days is in Iraq, where the Islamic radicals have allied with Sunni Arab nationalists to overthrow the elected (mainly by Kurds and Shia Arabs, who comprise 80 percent of the population) government.

Current thinking, among Islamic radicals, still leans towards using lots of violence and terror. After all, the Islamic radicals are on a mission from God. The debate is over how much violence to use, and against whom. One tactic is to concentrate on foreigners, especially tourists, and to avoid killing Moslems. The more hardcore Islamic radicals insist that the Moslems running the country should be the primary target, both the men-in-charge, and their families. Many Islamic conservatives believe that Islamic governments can be elected, as long as the Islamic radicals and terrorists are kept under control. These are fighting words to the Islamic radicals, so they are offered quietly. There are no fresh ideas, just the same old death and destruction.


TOPICS: War on Terror
KEYWORDS: alqaeda; gspc; jihad; wot

1 posted on 10/23/2006 8:39:30 AM PDT by Valin
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To: Valin

Author is ignoring the palestinian "territories".


2 posted on 10/23/2006 8:44:20 AM PDT by east1234 (It's the borders stupid. It's also WWIV.)
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To: east1234

"Similarly, in the Palestinian territories, the Islamic radicals have only been partially successful in taking over."

Not that there's a dimes worth of difference between the two.


3 posted on 10/23/2006 8:48:26 AM PDT by Valin (http://www.irey.com/)
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To: Valin
Certainly a success story of a kind. But should we take comfort from this: Most Algerian Islamic terrorists are now outside the country, mainly in Europe, either as refugees, or illegals.

I think not. Europe is crawling with terrorists and Muslim radicals, and they seemingly lack the will to take any action against them. Instead, they cower and hunker down and plead, "Please, do it to someone else. Don't bomb us, bomb the Americans, or anyone but us."

4 posted on 10/23/2006 9:04:27 AM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: Valin

Guess I should have read the whole article.


5 posted on 10/23/2006 9:10:17 AM PDT by east1234 (It's the borders stupid. It's also WWIV.)
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To: east1234
RADICAL CONCEPT ALERT!!! :-)
6 posted on 10/23/2006 9:14:55 AM PDT by Valin (http://www.irey.com/)
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To: Valin
The people are still angry with the corrupt government, but they are even more unhappy with the Islamic radicals, whose brutality exceeded anything the government ever resorted to. While the government was dishonest and inefficient, the Islamic radicals were terrifying

Take heed, people of Iraq!
7 posted on 10/23/2006 9:16:49 AM PDT by reagan_fanatic (The fool hath said in his heart, there is no God." (Psalm 53:1))
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To: reagan_fanatic

What makes you think they don't?


8 posted on 10/23/2006 9:25:36 AM PDT by Valin (http://www.irey.com/)
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To: Valin
What makes you think they don't?

The continued level of violence for one. al-Quaeda and the others couldn't operate at this level for this long without some degree of cooperation from the general population. Two, the historical reaction to the 'occupiers', which is us. Their natural reaction to us being there is to hate us and want us out, which complicates what we are trying to do - deny the islamists a base from which to operate and give the Iraqis a chance at freedom.
9 posted on 10/23/2006 10:21:17 AM PDT by reagan_fanatic (The fool hath said in his heart, there is no God." (Psalm 53:1))
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