Zogby/WSJ Polls (Senate)

Wall Street Journal ^ | 10/19/06 | John Zogby

[Ravi]

Republicans edged ahead in one tightly contested senate race but while the latest Battleground States Poll puts the party on track to retain control of the chamber, several tight races leave the Election night outcome uncertain.

[jimfrommaine]

I would love to see Steele and Kean win. But if they force the DNC to throw money into those races, it should mean less funds for Missouri, Tennesee and Virginia.

[mainepatsfan]

The MSM really seemed to pushing Ford Jr. a few weeks ago but I haven't seen many stories on him lately. I guess they see the writing on the wall in Tennessee.

[DJnVa]

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First, Leiberman will not vote for Impeachment, and neither will Ben Nelson.

Second, you need 2/3rds majority in the senate for impeachment, and there is no way any republican (except maybe Chafee, who could be toast) would vote for it.

The real problem is 2 years of investigations sapping the strength of the war effort.

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Lieberman and/or Nelson have nothing to do with "impeachment". Impeachment is done in the House. The Senate conducts the trial. Which is why Clinton WAS impeached, but not convicted.

[mainepatsfan]

Yup. As long as the Dems are spending money in places they didn't think they needed to they are serving a purpose.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Those aren't polls, they're by "Zogby Interactive," so they are self-selective Internet surveys. They are about as unscientific as an online poll on CNN.com, and should be ignored.

That being said, I agree with you that it will all come down to turnout.

[Antoninus]

Keep in mind that Zogby will be a host on the new liberal talk network--successor to Err America.

[MikeA]

Let's hope they can force some of the DNC's very limited resources into defending Maryland and New Jersey. That would be so awesome. I think Steele has a real shot at it.

[Dr. Free Market]

Although Zogby's polls may not be valid, they are reliable. In the last midterm election Zogby underestimated the Republican vote from 8-16%! ( http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1282/is_22_56/ai_n13659409 )

"In Minnesota, Zogby predicted Democrat Walter Mondale over Republican Norm Coleman by 6 points; Coleman won by 3. In Colorado, Zogby picked Democrat Ted Strickland over GOP incumbent Wayne Allard by 5; Allard won by 5. In Georgia, Zogby picked Democrat Max Cleland over Republican Saxby Chambliss by 2; Chambliss won by 7. In Texas, Zogby's final poll had Republican John Cornyn over Democrat Ron Kirk by 4 points; Cornyn won by 12. Zogby's final poll in the Florida gubernatorial race had Jeb Bush winning by 15, but only three weeks earlier he had Bush winning by only 3. Bush won by 13 points."

So add at least 8% to the Republican to get a better idea of where the final results will be. Blackwell right now is within the MOE!

Zogby's poll is an interactive Internet poll (I am a regular respondent-- probably because I represent an unusual demographic)-- but, in this case, his is closer to the reality that you and I are seeing because the bias from this poll (Internet users) is less than the bias from phone polls (i.e. Internet users more closely resemble actual midterm voters).

Remember, the drop off of voter turnout for off-year general elections in Ohio in the last 28 years is on average 15.46% (min= 10.12%; max= 23.96%; median= 15.64%). Guess which voters represent those that don't vote in off-year elections? The less-politically engaged-- "moderates" and young voters (i.e. answer polls but don't actually vote)-- who are also the more liberal. Strickland and the legacy Media are counting on these demographics to carry him to a win; Blackwell isn't. That's why Republican turnout is so important for a Blackwell upset, which I think is very likely.

Strickland's support peaked weeks ago as did Blackwell's negatives. The pro-Strickland Republicans and Bush/Taft voters are moving to undecided and the previous non-Democrat undecideds are breaking for Blackwell! That's the momentum that was starting to reveal itself in Aug. That’s where this election is going to be won or lost–- the votes of Republicans, not Independents and Democrats.

By my back of the envelope calculations, if KB gets >77% of previous Taft-- that's 90% of conservatives and 40% of "moderates", he probably wins. As of the beginning to middle of this month, based on the latest Ohio Poll, I calculated the race to be Strickland ahead by 6.2% (+/-4.5). I think that is probably closer to reality than any poll we are going to see, but I can't get it confirmed by "insiders". Maybe you can.

[Ravi]

In the same time period, Rasmussen shows a 15 point lead for Cantwell but Zogby only 7. Also Rasmussen only shows a 5 point lead for Crist but every other poll that I've seen has him up double digits. I think Ras may be off this year. IMO.

[DontBelieveAugPolls]

""I have a hard time believing that Rick Santorum is 8 points down in the polls after the last two debates. ""

hmmmm..in 1992 I had a hard time believing a sitting incumbent President with a record far better than most other incumbents was down 5 points to a draft dodging military hating philandering pot smoker...but here we are.

[jimfrommaine]

Yeah. I think Steele is a great candidate. I thought for the past month it would be 50-50 in the Senate. But If Allen, Corker, Talent win, there's 51 seats. Steele would make it 52. I think Burns has a better shot of winning than Dewine because of Ohio's scandals. But this election is just heating up. With 19 days left we should be optimistic. If we fight hard a great victory can be achieved.

[DoSomethingAboutIt]

This almost deserves its own post...but it sure belongs here. Compares Zogby's results two days before the 2002 election and what really happened.

http://www.riehlworldview.com/carnivorous_conservative/2006/10/a_unique_perspe.html

[Jen from Tn.]

I think Corker's new ads are helping a lot! I just hope this holds!!!!

[Dr. Free Market]

Oops.. I meant Bliss Poll, not Ohio Poll.

[ShandaLear]

This can't be. I refuse to accept that the Republican part is anything bit doomed. /sarcasm

[MikeA]

Ramussen has been erratic to say the least. He shows Casey ahead by 12 points. That's absurd. Santorum may well lose, but it will be by a couple points or less if it does happen, not 12.

[Jen from Tn.]

I so hope you are right!

[jimfrommaine]

My question is, what purpose does Senator Snowe have? Will she change parties and become a democrat?

[Thermalseeker]

I so hope you are right!

I've already voted. Have you?

[mainepatsfan]

We're stuck with her and Collins I'm afraid. This state rarely throws out incumbents.