"In Minnesota, Zogby predicted Democrat Walter Mondale over Republican Norm Coleman by 6 points; Coleman won by 3. In Colorado, Zogby picked Democrat Ted Strickland over GOP incumbent Wayne Allard by 5; Allard won by 5. In Georgia, Zogby picked Democrat Max Cleland over Republican Saxby Chambliss by 2; Chambliss won by 7. In Texas, Zogby's final poll had Republican John Cornyn over Democrat Ron Kirk by 4 points; Cornyn won by 12. Zogby's final poll in the Florida gubernatorial race had Jeb Bush winning by 15, but only three weeks earlier he had Bush winning by only 3. Bush won by 13 points."
So add at least 8% to the Republican to get a better idea of where the final results will be. Blackwell right now is within the MOE!
Zogby's poll is an interactive Internet poll (I am a regular respondent-- probably because I represent an unusual demographic)-- but, in this case, his is closer to the reality that you and I are seeing because the bias from this poll (Internet users) is less than the bias from phone polls (i.e. Internet users more closely resemble actual midterm voters).
Remember, the drop off of voter turnout for off-year general elections in Ohio in the last 28 years is on average 15.46% (min= 10.12%; max= 23.96%; median= 15.64%). Guess which voters represent those that don't vote in off-year elections? The less-politically engaged-- "moderates" and young voters (i.e. answer polls but don't actually vote)-- who are also the more liberal. Strickland and the legacy Media are counting on these demographics to carry him to a win; Blackwell isn't. That's why Republican turnout is so important for a Blackwell upset, which I think is very likely.
Strickland's support peaked weeks ago as did Blackwell's negatives. The pro-Strickland Republicans and Bush/Taft voters are moving to undecided and the previous non-Democrat undecideds are breaking for Blackwell! That's the momentum that was starting to reveal itself in Aug. That’s where this election is going to be won or lost–- the votes of Republicans, not Independents and Democrats.
By my back of the envelope calculations, if KB gets >77% of previous Taft-- that's 90% of conservatives and 40% of "moderates", he probably wins. As of the beginning to middle of this month, based on the latest Ohio Poll, I calculated the race to be Strickland ahead by 6.2% (+/-4.5). I think that is probably closer to reality than any poll we are going to see, but I can't get it confirmed by "insiders". Maybe you can.
Oops.. I meant Bliss Poll, not Ohio Poll.
BTW, I've not seen you post before, but this was really impressive. Excellent research and analysis.