Posted on 10/12/2006 10:45:20 AM PDT by okstate
A SurveyUSA poll finds Democrat Sherrod Brown leading incumbent Republican Mike DeWine. In an election for United States Senator from Ohio today, 10/12/2006, Brown defeats DeWine, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WKYC-TV Cleveland, and WYTV-TV Youngstown.
Brown, who represents Ohio's 13th District in Congress, unseats DeWine, 54% to 40% in a vote today.
Since an identical SurveyUSA poll 9/21/06, Brown has gained 2 points and DeWine has lost 2 points.
Brown's lead has grown from 10 to 14 points.
Male voters still prefer Brown by 1 point, but Brown's lead among women has grown from 19 points to 26 points in the last 3 weeks.
DeWine holds 83% of his Republican base. Brown holds 90% of his Democrat base.
Brown leads by 22 points among Independents.
Republican DeWine leads by 64 points among Conservatives.
Democrat Brown leads by 75 points among Liberals.
Among Moderates, Democrat Brown leads by 45 points, up from a 31-point lead with this group last month.
DeWine wins 3:2 in Western OH. Brown wins 2:1 in Central and Eastern OH.
The election is on 11/7/2006.
DeWine was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1994. Brown was first elected to Congress in 1992.
If the election for United States Senator were today, who would you vote for? Republican Mike Dewine? Democrat Sherrod Brown? Or some other candidate?
40% DeWine (R) 54% Brown (D) 6% Other/Undecided
Asked of 515 Likely Voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = plus / minus 4.4%
Probably the only people familiar with Rod Parsley are those who attend his church and the TBN crowd.
There's something that's an additional pull on Blackwell that's not pulling on Dewine. I say it's Parsley.
Talk shows from Columbus to Cleveland are all talking about Ted Strickland's 1999 vote where he failed to codemn pedophilia.
It's like every outlet decided today that it was worth pursuing.
Rightangleblog.com has the details of the coverage.
If it was Parsley, Petro would have used it in the primary.
Besides, people may hate D.C. but they generally love their guys in D.C.
I don't no what to think about polls any more. Exit polls are just as bad because they use models that don't aways work. Someone told me the reason Bob Smith "lost" NH in the exit Polls in 96 because the polls weight the fact that Union members who vote after work late in the day vote dems. Problem with Bob Smith is he is with the Unions on trade and because of that a lot of the Union members voted for Smith.
I dunno. That's the first I've heard of the Rod Parsley thing.
Blackwell has the Christian right wrapped up. It's the non hard core republicans and the non hard Christian right republicans that are turned off by him. A big part of that turn off is their fear of Parsley. I go to a pretty Christian right church in Central Ohio. When Parsely's name is mentioned, people roll their eyes. Outside of his large congreation, many people just don't feel comfortable with him.
Are you listening and talking to people outside of the base. And I may be hearing more of it since I'm closer to Parsley's back yard.
How?
Many people see Parsley as over the top. Right or wrong. That's the perception.
Maybe that's it, I'm not in Columbus.
It amazes me that people would be willing to put up with continued overtaxation just because they're "afraid" of a guy who believes in God.
Parsley IS over the top. But I'm not voting for HIM, I'm voting for Blackwell.
Of course he's over the top, but you still haven't explained what he has to do with Blackwell's candidacy.
In a way you are. Parsley has great influence among his followers. Blackwell knows that. Yes, Ken is his own man. But there is a certain amount of cut from the same cloth if Ken keeps as close as he has with Parlsey. And Ken is loyal to those loyal to him.
Rod Parsley pastors a big church and has a large following thanks to TBN.
Ken Blackwell is his own man. I have met him, and he isn't some Parsleybot...and Parlsey is no king maker.
If you don't like Parsley...come out and say it. You don't need to shade it and hide it behind Blackwell.
If Blackwell is losing look to Taft. I was at a Bush worker meeting in 2004 and listened to Blackwell answer over and over the damages of Taft has inflicted on this state. And guess what...Parsley's name did not come up once.
Strickland's support and Blackwell's negatives peaked weeks ago. Closer reading of the polls show that he pro-Strickland Republicans and Bush/Taft voters are moving to undecided and the previous non-Democrat undecideds are breaking for Blackwell! That's the momentum that was starting to reveal itself in Aug. That’s where this election is going to be won or lost–- the votes of Republicans, not Independents and Democrats.
Remember, the drop off of voter turnout for off-year general election in Ohio is on average is 15.46% in the last 28 years (min= 10.12%; max= 23.96%; median= 15.64%). Guess which voters represent those that don't vote in off-year elections: the less-politically engaged (i.e. answer polls but don't actually vote).
This is why non-response rates and screening of likely voters is critical in accurate polling. Those that don't vote, but say they are going to invariably favors the Dem candidate greatly. That's why I know that this race is much closer than these polls suggest.
It's not the bastardization of science that bothers me as much as the representation and subsequent promotion throughout the Media that these flash polls are in some way valid. I believe it is a thinly-veiled attempt to promote an agenda. I don't recall the same kind of media blare when polls showed more realistic deficits of 5-12 points since August. Ever wonder why?
The electorate is shifting towards KB or to stay at home-- complacency is setting in with "moderates" thanks to these polls and anti-Blackwell-media fatigue. It's time to take advantage because Strickland will have a tough time getting these people to care again. His support is weak.
My guess is that Blackwell is 8 points (+or- 2) behind with a month to go and increasing momentum. Strickland will fold as soon as he has to start defending his votes in public.
Several more conservative media sources have picked up on the Strickland voting record that has not been reported by the usual suspects-- APA study, to defund NSA, vote to support terrorist against the troops, steel tariffs, etc.-- as well as his excusing a pedophile working in his office. Expect these to get some traction in the last weeks so that it can't be ignored any longer by the MSM.
DeWine will win comfortably; Blackwell wins in a squeaker.
Strickland Calls Ohio a "Backwards State": Blames economy's woes on restrictions on abortion and embryonic stem cell research
Is there any doubt that if Blackwell had made such an insulting statement during a campaign-- publicly, on tape!-- that it would be plastered across every front page and lead every newscast-- TV and radio-- in the State. That's not bad enough. He then gives our "backwardness" (defined as: restrictions-- of which there are essentially none-- on abortion and embryonic stem cell research; and presumably our defense of marriage amendment) as the reason(s) for Ohio's sluggish economy.
If any Republican had ascerted such stupidity, they would then be hounded daily for comment about why they hate Ohioans and to defend their economic moonbattery-- and rightly so! But "The Stealth Candidate" gets a pass; and not just a pass, but gets protected from criticism.
Other headlines I'm still waiting for:
Strickland plans massive expansion of Medicaid: Believes adding hundreds of thousands to broken system and "living wage" revenue neutral
Strickland, Brown vote to support terrorists against the US: Vote against honoring sacrifices of troops, too!
Strickland ranks below non-voting members of Congress in power: Ranking shows he has zero success in legislation, less than zero influence with other members!
Strickland, Brown vote to defund NSA program: Prefer U.S. deaf in war on terrorism
DeWine deserves to go down after selling out the base.
As someone here in Ohio it sure does not seem that dems are in control. I am in a college community that generally shows lots of dem bumper stickers when they are fired up. I am not seeing that. I am not seeing any dem yard signs and a rather small number of dem bumper stickers.
In a campus debate here students voted 121 to 78 to stay the course in Iraq about one week ago.
Ohio polls show 61% for staying the course in Iraq. Its hard to imagine how this can be reconciled to dem wins indicated by these polls you are noting.
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