Posted on 10/05/2006 12:11:53 PM PDT by Alex1977
WASHINGTON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Democrats are poised for U.S. Senate gains in the Nov. 7 election, but face an uphill battle to pick up the six seats they need for control, according to Reuters/Zogby polls released on Thursday.
Democrats lead in five of 10 crucial Senate battlegrounds, including three Republican-held seats in Pennsylvania, Montana and Rhode Island and in Democratic-held Maryland and New Jersey.
But Republican incumbents lead in Virginia and Missouri, and Senate contests in Republican-held Ohio and Tennessee are deadlocked, the polls showed.
Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent, has a big lead over Democrat Ned Lamont.
To gain a Senate majority, Democrats must hold their own vulnerable seats and sweep six of the seven at-risk Republican seats, including knocking off five Republican incumbents -- a tough but not impossible task.
"It looks like Democrats will make gains, but it will be very difficult for them to take control," pollster John Zogby said. "It is going to take an awful lot of work for them to pick up six seats."
The polls show Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee who lost an August primary fight to Lamont, with a 20-point lead over his rival.
Other polls have given Lieberman a smaller lead in the high-profile race, which will not have a bearing on the Senate balance of power. Lieberman has promised to vote with Democrats if he wins his race as an independent.
The polls, taken Sept. 25 to Oct. 2 in 10 of the country's most competitive Senate races, surveyed at least 600 likely voters in each state. They have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Public unhappiness with President George W. Bush, the Iraq war and the direction of the country has created a difficult political environment for Republicans and given Democrats momentum in the election battle for the U.S. Congress.
The polls overlapped by three days with the unfolding sex scandal involving Florida Rep. Mark Foley's explicit Internet messages to teenage male congressional pages, another setback for Republicans.
COMPETITIVE RACES
The new polls showed no Republican incumbents earning support from more than 50 percent of voters, usually a bad sign for current office holders. Sen. George Allen in Virginia was the only Republican incumbent with more than 40 percent of voters saying he deserved re-election.
While the Democratic fight for Senate control will be a tough challenge, they are in enough competitive races to have a shot.
Republican Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, perhaps the biggest target for Senate Democrats, trails Democrat Bob Casey Jr. 48 percent to 36 percent. Republican Sens. Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island and Conrad Burns in Montana each trail Democratic challengers by 4 percentage points.
In Ohio, Republican Sen. Mike DeWine and Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown are in a dead heat. The Tennessee race between Republican Bob Corker and Democrat Harold Ford Jr., who are vying for the right to replace retiring Republican Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, also is deadlocked.
The new polls showed Allen ahead of Democratic challenger James Webb 48 percent to 37 percent, even though Allen's re-election bid has drawn heavy attention for his campaign trail missteps. Other polls show the race closer or even.
"Webb doesn't seem to have taken advantage of a bad couple of weeks for Allen," Zogby said.
In Missouri, where Republican Sen. Jim Talent and Democrat Claire McCaskill have been running close in polls all year, the Reuter/Zogby poll shows Talent ahead 43 percent to 39 percent.
Democrats have firm leads in two states where they are on defense, with Democratic incumbent Robert Menendez leading Republican Tom Kean Jr. 45 percent to 35 percent in New Jersey.
In Maryland, Democrat Ben Cardin leads Republican Michael Steele by 45 percent to 37 percent in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Paul Sarbanes.
© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.
Exactly. Can ya re-do the poll Saturday, pretty please?
Welcome back! How's the noggin?
Do you think we can win in Ohio?
not so sure after foleygate
MO SENATE Jim Talent (R) 43% Claire McCaskill (D) 39%
RI SENATE SHeldon Whitehouse (D) 45% Lincoln Chafee (R) 41%
Wonderful news if this holds up. Two conservatives reelected and liberal removed from the GOP. Now, if Santorum could just make a comeback and DeWine would headed toward defeat, it could be a good day for conservatives.
i don't know if it'll lose ohio, but it certainly isn't helping anywhere. still more than a month to go.
MSM can produce their tainted biased polls all they want. Come election day, it will be a different story.
These schmucks, along with the rest of the liberal biased pollsters have Maria Cantwell winning in Eastern Washington. Pure delusion. But its what happens every election. The MSM and democrats work hand in hand to release these polls, and if after the election the democraps lose, they will sue for recounts claiming the polls provide proof that the republicans commited election fraud somehow.
When you count the rino slime from the North East, the democrats already control the US Senate!
"The new polls showed Allen ahead of Democratic challenger James Webb 48 percent to 37 percent, even though Allen's re-election bid has drawn heavy attention for his campaign trail missteps. Other polls show the race closer or even.
"Webb doesn't seem to have taken advantage of a bad couple of weeks for Allen," Zogby said. "
I've been told by some Freepers that Allen is toast for the presidential race. I wonder if that's the case if he beats Webb by 10?
What did you say? Zogby has a push/tush poll, showing the Democrats win the house handily?
"NJ SENATE (wrong?) Bobby Menendez (D) 45% Thomas Kean (R) 35%"
Most recent polls have Kean ahead. No way he's down by 10 points. I would question the sampling in that poll when 5 out of 7 polls contradict it.
09/18 Quinnipiac - Kean +3
09/21 Monmouth - Kean +8
09/22 Rasmussen - Kean +1
09/26 Rutgers - Menendez +1
09/27 Mason-Dixon - Menendez +3
09/28 Marist - Kean +5
10/01 Strategic Vision - Kean +5
zogby is a muzzie and will do anything to help the lib/dem cause!!!
reuters is socialist anti-american and will do likewise!
why would anyone with a brain believe this crap....
everyone should crawl over glass if necessary to keep the lib/dems from f'ing up the US!!!!
"I think it will be a happy day for republicans Nov. 7th."
I've got champagne chilling already. This is all Liberal Projection.
And no one EVER calls me to ask my opinion for these polls, so I can only deduce that they're not really sampling across the board.
We've already gotten rid of our drunken sot Attorney General, Peg "The Keg" Lautenschlager, D, WI.) She lost in the primary.
Now it's onward and upward to get JB Van Hollen (R, WI) elected to replace her, and to get rid of our DemonRat Governor and replace him with Mark Green (R, WI.)
Trust me, I and others in this Swing State are working our butts off to make this happen. Granted, we'll be stuck with Senators Kohl and Feingold and our CongressLesbian Tammy Baldwin for the rest of their natural lives, but we're doing what we can up here. :)
Welcome back.
Sure! But the picture may even getting worse.
They've got 20% undecided in Tennessee and New Jersey, and 18% undecided in Ohio.
Negative...negative.....negative...uh uh. (shaking head and grinning)
NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!!!
Unfortunately, many of us don't live in Alabama... like you.
;-))
Alex
Too bad you weren't here for the 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004 elections. We've been watching Mr. Zogby for some time now.
This is how he worked in 1998 and 2000:
Up through September, show all Dems ahead. In October, show rapid Republican gains until, come election day eve, he shows pretty much how the election will tally. In 2000, he was the closest pollster of all.
In 2002 and 2004, he came up with so many democrats ahead, there was no way save a miracle for the Republicans to win. In fact, he stated that the election of 2004 was "Kerry's to lose".
We seemed to note the pattern for Zogby: Show what he hopes the vote will be (pro-Dem) until right before the election, and then change the numbers to get the actual results. That is what FReepers refer to as the "special sauce". I belive Lazmataz made that up. Laz, correct me if I'm wrong.
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