Polls find Democrats ahead in 3 vital states (Mason-Dixon, DeWine -2, Burns -7, Corker -1)

The State ^ | 1 October 2006 | Steven Thomma

[okstate]

Do you have any evidence for this at all, or is it just an assumption on your part?

[catholicfreeper]

We must also remind the people that the Supreme Court is still at stake here. I still think there is a chance that Stevens might retire since he was appointed by a Republican. HEck who knows maybe even Ginsburg might decide to retire. Anyway I hope that point being made in direct mail

[okstate]

Corker does have a very poor ad team from what I've heard. The recent polls from Tennessee are bringing pretty bad news. I had always assumed Corker would win by 8-10 percent, but now I view him more like Talent in MO, where he'll be lucky to squeak out a razor-thin victory.

09-30 Mason Dixon ...... Ford +1
09-11 Survey USA ....... Ford +3
09-08 Rasmussen .......... Corker +1

Granted some of these polls are older, but that's the trifecta of the three best pollsters in 2004 and they all agree that Tennessee is a tossup right now - nothing more and nothing less.

[okstate]

Ford, Jr. is an extremely dangerous candidate. I think Corker underestimated him and is paying the price, potentially. The scary thing is that its been almost 2 months since the primaries, and Corker's numbers have gotten WORSE. After a rough primary the candidate should improve over time. That's not happening in Tennessee and that's very troublesome.

[AlexW]

"Is Harold Ford an Arab in American clothes?"

No, Ford is a member of an infamous black criminal family
in Memphis. It goes back over 50 years.
My father was a Main St. merchant, and as a child I remember him talking about the Fords as check kiters and basic slime.

I cant imagine Ford wining the state.
He will carry Memphis by a landslide, as it is 60 percent chocolateville, but outside of that, I cant imagine anyone voting for him.

[GregH]

I heard that he has built a new team, so i think Corker must be learning.

Also Fords support is stuck in the low 40's, this means he has peaked with all the ads and deception and still in the 40s'.

Outside memphis, it is very hard to see people voting for Ford, Tennesseans are quite informed on politics and know about the corruot Ford family and wont be fooled by his ads, remember Gore got tossed out in 2000.

The election is there to be won by Corker quite comfortably, however he needs to get on the game and be focussed.

[CyberAnt]

That's okay .. let DeWine sweat a little .. maybe he'll listen to more conservatives now, instead of the liberals in congress.

[yankeedame]

With caller ID - cell phones and do not call lists how can you get an accurate poll?

By Jupiter, that's an excellent observation!

[Coldwater Creek]

A poll commissioned by the Commercial Appeal is going to be extremely biased toward Ford! Other polls have Corker up by five or six points.

[Coldwater Creek]

A new ad is coming out, talking about the corruptness link to the Ford family.

[jmaroneps37]

This shows the surge is still moving forward. ford will not beat Corker, Burns is improving and Dewine is closer than he has been.

[musikman]

And the exit polls had Kerry winning.

[q_an_a]

M_D got many outcomes wrong in the last election and I would be suspect of these numbers. Incumbents can make up many points in the last weeks of an election - sorry to say that even a Murtha is likely to win re-election. I'll take Talent, Allen, DeWine, Santorum and Coker in the pool.

[VanDeKoik]

With all due respect, I'm not basing my House vote on what happens in one district in Florida.

It would be absolutely stupid for anyone to assume, unless you live in that district, to do otherwise.

[VanDeKoik]

Oh yeah, and how are the Dems "ahead" with the numbers so close.

Shouldn't it considered a "dead heat", or is that only when republicans are ahead by one or two?

[no dems]

I understand that, and I would not expect anyone to base their House vote on one district in Florida. But, when you start adding up all the GOP "Abramhoff scandal-ridden" districts (Tom Delay, Bob Ney, etc. and Conrad Burns the GOP Sen. in Montana) and now this thing with Foley; it's not looking good for our team.

The "Foley Connection" is this: Denny Hastert and the GOP leadership knew about these e-mails since early '05. Yet, they did nothing. That's called a "cover-up".

So, what I'm saying is that people are probably getting a bad taste in their mouth for the GOP over all. I'm a dyed-in-the-wool Ronald Reagan-style Conservative and I'm getting pretty sick of the do-nothing, RINO loving, corrupt Republican Party myself.

[LS]

Yes, it's decent news, but it's still wrong. DeWine was never behind. He's likely up four or five now. This also means that Burns is really close, and that Corker is ahead.

All coming together as the slimy pollsters start to adjust their polls to get in line with reality for election day so they can claim to be "accurate."

[LS]

And it's sheer nonsense. The ground game tells us this. Gallup can "observe" whatever he wants to, but the real message we get on the ground---and apparently OK STATE, you never bother to walk a precinct or do any "poll flushing" or make calls, so you might not know this---is that the GOP's ground game will be pretty close to what we had in 2004, and the Dems will not even be as good as 2004.

And let's please remember Gallup's organization was infiltrated by British MI-5 in WW II and produced bogus polls without even knowing it.

And lets not forget Gallup in 1996 was one of ALL the pollsters who was dramatically off to the left and was guilty of oversampling Dems.

It's the same story, over and over. These guys have badly flawed methods that never seem to show up until election eve, when they hustle to get in line with something close to the real electoral verdict.

[LS]

Actually, it's bogus. We have no indication that GOP vote will be "depressed." There is one small category of non-web older voters that apepars to be lukewarm, but all the other categories we poll have the GOP doing about what we expect, which means victory. In one key group, we know that Ken Blackwell, for example, is polling VERY high for a Republican among blacks. NOT good news for Dems---any Dem. Most people don't split votes.

[LS]

Sorry, won't wash. The more important thing is that the Dems knew about it too and they said nothing because of Barney FWANK. More important, it's an incredible sign of weakness on the part of the Dems, because they could have blown this at any time, but blew the whistle TOO EARLY. If they were confident in their position, they would have saved this until one week out.

Trust me, the fact that this came out in Sept. is NOT a sign of strength on the part of the Dems.