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America’s Army on the Edge [nyt alert]
new york times ^ | 10/1/06

Posted on 09/30/2006 5:32:47 PM PDT by mathprof

Even if there were a case for staying the current course in Iraq, America’s badly overstretched Army cannot sustain present force levels much longer without long-term damage. And that could undermine the credibility of American foreign policy for years to come.

The Army has been kept on short rations of troops and equipment for years by a Pentagon more intent on stockpiling futuristic weapons than fighting today’s wars. Now it is pushing up against the limits of hard arithmetic. Senior generals are warning that the Bush administration may have to break its word and again use National Guard units to plug the gap, but no one in Washington is paying serious attention. That was clear last week when Congress recklessly decided to funnel extra money to the Air Force’s irrelevant F-22 stealth fighter.

As early as the fall of 2003, the Congressional Budget Office warned that maintaining substantial force levels in Iraq for more than another six months would be difficult without resorting to damaging short-term expedients.[snip]

These emergency measures have taken a heavy toll on combat readiness and training, on the quality of new recruits, and on the career decisions of some of the Army’s most promising young officers. They cannot be continued indefinitely.

Now, with the security situation worsening in both Iraq and Afghanistan, the Pentagon concedes that no large withdrawals from either country are likely for the foreseeable future. As a result, even more drastic and expensive steps could soon be needed. The most straightforward would be to greatly increase the overall number of Army combat brigades. That would require recruiting, training and equipping the tens of thousands of additional soldiers needed to fill them.

Yet the Pentagon and Congress remain in an advanced state of denial.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: deathbyhanging; dyingnygt; nyt; nytreasontimes; sweetpinch; treason
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To: Mr Rogers

Just remember that the bullet comes out of the skinny end and you'll do fine. Good flying and Godspeed.


61 posted on 10/01/2006 6:13:55 AM PDT by centurion316 (Democrats - Supporting Al Qaida Worldwide)
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To: dufekin
And those are the odious Republicans; the devious, hedonistic, seditious Democrats actively support and propagandize for the enemy and only support our troops superficially when their political lives depend on it.

Yes, and there's a big difference. Therefore, I'll never vote for a Dem. Won't be happy about voting for the GOP, but I'll do it.

62 posted on 10/01/2006 6:16:49 AM PDT by centurion316 (Democrats - Supporting Al Qaida Worldwide)
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To: mathprof
I'm so glad the new york times cares about the military.

Where were they during the Carter administration? I remember how decrepit our equipment was during my tour in Germany, and the lack of funds for spare parts and training. It was always a struggle to have 3/4 of our weapons systems operational, which was the minimum requirement.

The average soldier that was in my platoon/battery/battalion was just as good as they are today. In some ways, they were better, because they learned rapidly how to make do with less. Fortunately, far fewer marginal recruits are allowed to enlist today.

63 posted on 10/01/2006 8:57:49 AM PDT by Night Hides Not (Closing in on 3000 posts, of which maybe 50 were worthwhile!)
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To: Gondring

The most important statistic is reenlistment. That tells you if we are losing experienced NCOs, the backbone of our army.

During the current conflict, the reenlistment rates have never been low.

Therefore, I deem the NY Times article full of crap.

For example: If as few as one man in three have body armor, you just switch it around so that the high risk men wear the body armor, and the Fobbits (mix of Forward Operating Base and hobbits who never leave the Shire) don't get any.

The US Army came up with tactics to beat the fortified lines at Normandy, beat the hedgerow defenses, and beat the Tiger and Panther tanks with Shermans and Tank Destroyers. I have every confidence that the Army will defeat these jerks. And the Arab terrorists too.


64 posted on 10/01/2006 10:52:53 AM PDT by donmeaker (If the sky don't say "Surrender Dorothy!" then my ex wife is out of town.)
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To: Mr Rogers

The reason why we are not spending a bunch on legacy platforms is as follows.

1. Each update program has a overhead fixed cost, per update program. A new platform has the same overhead cost as each little update, and you get a lot more out of it.
2. The current legacy systems are completely capable of fighting little wars against third and 4th tier opponents. updates are not needed for that task.
3. The current legacy systems are not capable, with any package of updates you can name, against a first tier opponent. The new Air Force and Navy systems will be effective. (I don't have personal expertise on the current crop of new Army or Marine programs, and so withold judgement.)

Hope that clears it up.


65 posted on 10/01/2006 10:59:28 AM PDT by donmeaker (If the sky don't say "Surrender Dorothy!" then my ex wife is out of town.)
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To: horse_doc

Ah yes.."the brutal Afghan winter"...soon replaced by "the brutal Iraqi summer." The NYT wonders how we survive at all, in places without air conditioning.


66 posted on 10/01/2006 11:13:14 AM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: Hardastarboard
...to greatly increase the overall number of Army combat brigades. That would require recruiting, training and equipping the tens of thousands of additional soldiers needed to fill them

And you don't think the Slimes has military experts on its staff...who could have figured this stuff out without the help of the Slimes?

67 posted on 10/01/2006 11:16:35 AM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: donmeaker

Re-enlistment bonuses have had to be raised to record levels.


68 posted on 10/01/2006 11:21:24 AM PDT by Gondring (I'll give up my right to die when hell freezes over my dead body!)
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To: donmeaker; centurion316

I've spent most of the last 1 1/2 years working acquisition for legacy platforms.

1 - No, a new pod doesn't have the same fixed cost as the F-22.

2 - We won't have enough 'new systems' to handle a war against a top tier opponent. No way in hell. That means we will have to use legacy systems. And it is far cheaper to upgrade 200+ legacy platforms than buy 40 F-22s.

3 - With commercially available upgrades, legacy fighters can be effective against top tier opponents. A lot depends on what you forcast the threats to be in 2020. I think the USAF has made a poor prediction in order to justify the F-22.

The USAF has sold its soul for the F-22. It has gutted any legacy upgrades, gutted strat airlift, and now it is gutting manpower - all to buy a limited number of aircraft.

If this were an either/or situation, I could chalk it up to a difference in opinion.

But it isn't an either/or situation. If you go to the American taxpayer, and ask if they are willing to spend what it takes for a first class military, the answer is a resounding YES. Our leaders, in the USAF & DoD, haven't done that - and they haven't because the WH doesn't want them to do so.

I've met too many Army guys with two tours and rising going back again this winter. My son-in-law expects to be sent on his third tour with the Marines this spring. I'll leave this winter on my first, but expect to go back again a year or so after I get back, because we're short handed and I have some unusual training.


69 posted on 10/01/2006 11:28:27 AM PDT by Mr Rogers (I'm agnostic on evolution, but sit ups are from Hell!)
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To: Hardastarboard
How many years' collective military experience do the NYT editors have, anyway? Seriously?

About as much military experience as their fearless leader...


70 posted on 10/01/2006 11:33:57 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (Freedom isn't free, but the men and women of the military will pay most of your share)
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To: donmeaker
The most important statistic is reenlistment. That tells you if we are losing experienced NCOs, the backbone of our army. During the current conflict, the reenlistment rates have never been low.

Reenlistment rates won't stay this high for long, even with the extremely high bonuses that are being paid. Bonuses that are sometimes many tens of thousands of dollars, tax free (when made in a hazardous fire zone). Even with those huge bonuses being dangled, many in highly skilled job areas are still opting out to work as contractors.

Enlistment rates won't stay this high for long, either, even though they've been dropping the standards drastically to make ends meet.

Yes, we are meeting the target numbers for both, but you should be made aware that the military is doing it's very best to paper over those numbers as long as it can.

71 posted on 10/01/2006 11:43:29 AM PDT by Steel Wolf (As Ibn Warraq said, "There are moderate Muslims but there is no moderate Islam.")
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To: Steel Wolf

It may be, as you say, that reenlistment rates will not be high for long.

The evidence is not here now, because the bonuses are doing their job. I am not a socialist, or an altruist, and figger the worker is worth his wage. You may differ, and that's ok.

Reenlistments rates are good, at president. The evidence cited does not make the case. Future evidence may, or may not make the case in the future.

As of right now, the story, as printed is bogus.

I wish all members of our armed forces good luck in their endeavors.


72 posted on 10/01/2006 11:50:11 AM PDT by donmeaker (If the sky don't say "Surrender Dorothy!" then my ex wife is out of town.)
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To: mathprof
Having been very active with troops rotating in/out through Ft. Lewis (and McCord) up till two months ago, and having recently spent time at Ft. Riley (for the return of their troops) and Ft. Knox with the troops, I guess those places are exceptions...because the troops at Ft. Lewis, those passing through Ft. Lewis, and those at Ft. Knox sure aren't indicative of the agonzied troops this story is talking about. But then again, the troops really don't live in the same world as the media and armchair generals.
73 posted on 10/01/2006 11:50:53 AM PDT by CWOJackson
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To: CWOJackson

I have seen some of those same troops and agree with your assessment. But, the problems lie just beneath the surfase. Its becoming very tough to meet the 12 month minimum between deployments, unit have already deployed with less. 12 month tours are also hard to sustain, many units have been extended. New units have been hard pressed to get both people and equipment delivered on time to support required training. No one is training on their basic warfighting tasks, there simply isn't time. They are working the priority, which to to be trained and ready for their GWOT mission.

We have a superb Army, the very best that has existed in my lifetime. It is, however, on the ragged edge. Without some relief, the force will begin to crack. Won't happen this year, probably not next year. High risk that it will happen in the future, especially if the politicians bail out on them like they did in 73.


74 posted on 10/01/2006 12:32:22 PM PDT by centurion316 (Democrats - Supporting Al Qaida Worldwide)
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To: centurion316
As I said, it's obvious that the troops live in a vastly different world from the media (who have taken a sudden election year interest in them and their welfare) and armchair generals.

I doubt that you will find many at all that don't agree deployments are coming too often and too quickly, but they are far more accepting of the situation then everyone else seems to be. It might be very disappointing to some people but overall they're pretty well adjusted...no ragged edge or problems beneath the surface.

75 posted on 10/01/2006 12:54:08 PM PDT by CWOJackson
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To: Steel Wolf
Increasing troop levels is simply not a priority with this administration.

Exactly. Rumsfeld has done some great things, but one of the truly tragic things he has done is to avoid pushing for more appropriate troops strength. However, with our current deployment rules, it's easy to see why the Administration might have gone for lower numbers to have greater staying power...but we shouldn't have to make that choice.

Still, this is a failure of planning, to have so few active duty troops. The GWOT, and related wars, will be manpower intensive.

Yes, and also, we need to involve the whole country, not just the military.

It would be discussed more, but people fear the political impact of talking about the Administration's military mismanagement.

It's not only that...it's encouraging to an enemy to have us admit these problems, and I wouldn't want to post this other than the fact that we're past the point of keeping up that illusion. It's obvious now that action is required.

76 posted on 10/01/2006 3:38:32 PM PDT by Gondring (I'll give up my right to die when hell freezes over my dead body!)
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