Closer N.J. Senate race than anticipated

MILLVILLE, N.J. - It wasn't supposed to be this hard for Democrat Robert Menendez.

New Jersey's political history, campaign cash and national dissatisfaction with the Republican-led Congress are all in his favor as he tries to win the Senate seat he took by appointment from the governor in January.

But here he is, locked in an apparent dead heat with Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr., and having to campaign in unlikely places such as a seafood festival down a gravel road in southern rural New Jersey, far from his base in the urban north.

Kean's father, Thomas, was twice elected governor in this heavily Democratic state and is still revered by many. And thanks to the elder Kean's chairmanship of the Sept. 11 commission, the Kean name has been sinking into voters' minds.

On a door-to-door trip in the well-to-do community of Old Tappan on the New York state border, several residents thought Kean, 38, was already in Congress. And his family connection has won him the support of registered Democrat Margaret Baer.

That scenario repeats itself as Kean travels the state. Kean does not speak of his father as he campaigns, and only mentions him when he's asked.

"He's a great dad," Kean says quickly when asked about his father's influence over voters. A recent poll showed that 8 percent of registered voters thought Kean Jr., was governor.

Recent polls indicated the race was essentially a tie even though the national Republican Party has yet to give Kean any money. National Democrats gave $550,000 to the state party committee, which plans to use the cash to get out the vote for Menendez. Pundits had figured Menendez would run away with the contest.

"The Democratic trend in the state has really been very strong," said Rutgers University political scientist Ross Baker. "I think it would really take a situation or a Republican candidate of such dramatic quality to reverse that."

Menendez has had to play defense against several corruption allegations, including criticism for leasing a building he owned to a nonprofit agency he later helped with federal funds. The U.S. attorney in New Jersey, a Republican appointee, has subpoenaed the agency's records.

On Thursday, Menendez severed ties with a close political adviser after a 1999 telephone conversation was released showing the adviser using Menendez's name for political gain. Menendez said the adviser acted without his authorization.

On the campaign trail recently, Menendez, 52, does not mention any of the corruption allegations — he has denied all of them publicly — nor his opponent in his short speech to the festival crowd in Millville. Instead, he sketches out his 32 years in politics as a mayor, state legislator and congressman.

He plugs a motor sports park that may be built in the town, calling it a great economic opportunity. The crowd is warm but not everyone is won over.

"I'm just waiting to see how they both fare on various issues," says registered Democrat Lendel Jones of Cinnaminson.

Jones and others at the festival say they're bothered by corruption allegations raised by both sides. Menendez has questioned Kean's ethics, arguing he has used his family name unlawfully to raise campaign cash. Kean and his father have denied it.

"That's a part of the reason I'm still undecided," Jones said. "I don't think there's any need for people to start getting personal. If anything, they should keep it above board and stick to the issues."

But in Old Tappan, Rosemarie DePhillips, a registered Republican, said the corruption issue is why she's voting for Kean, whom she incorrectly thought was a congressman.

"It's embarrassing to go out of town and say you're from New Jersey, and people say 'Oh, that corrupt place,'" DePhillips said. "Tom Kean's father was such a wonderful governor and I think the apple doesn't fall far from the tree."

DePhillips was still glowing from meeting Kean after he left her doorstep. His boyish charm works well one-on-one but can convey inexperience before a crowd. Kean entered politics in 2001 when he was elected to the state Assembly. He currently is a state senator and has one failed run at Congress in his past.

Kean sounds nervous and rehearsed at the same time as he speaks at an Oakland senior center to women finishing a yoga class. The crowd listens politely but when one woman's cell phone rings, two women run out to answer it.

The candidates come from very different places. Menendez's parents emigrated from Cuba and he grew up in a Union City tenement. Kean spent eight years of his childhood living in the governor's mansion.

Menendez was the first in his family to go to college; Kean University in Union is named for the Kean family.

They share some positions, however. Both support abortion rights, embryonic stem-cell research and tough gun control laws. And both have criticized Bush for his administration's handling of the war in Iraq and called for Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld to resign. Menendez voted against sending troops to Iraq in 2002; Kean has said he would have voted for the war at the time.

Menendez has raised about $7.4 million for the race, more than triple the amount raised by his opponent, and is campaigning in a state with more registered Democrats than Republicans, a large number of unaffiliated voters who lean Democratic, and Democrats in charge in the legislature and the governor's office.

These Democratic tendencies have united the party behind Menendez as the GOP furiously tries to fan speculation that the senator will be replaced because of the corruption allegations.

"The rumors are generated by Republicans in their fantasy of trying to get me off the ballot," Menendez said Friday in an interview. "I am in this race to win and in it to the end."

Gov. Jon Corzine, who appointed Menendez to the seat, said the senator is his choice through the election, spokesman Anthony Coley said Friday. Rep. Robert Andrews (news, bio, voting record), D-N.J., mentioned as a possible replacement, said Thursday, "the governor and the party leaders are both behind Menendez and so am I."

New Jersey Senate: Kean Retakes Lead

Kean (R) 44% Menendez (D) 39%

September 6, 2006

Republican State Senator Tom Kean, Jr.Republican State Senator Tom Kean Jr., son of the former NJ Governor, again leads Democratic Senator Bob Menendez in New Jersey's race for U.S. Senate. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows Kean with 44% of the vote while Menendez is at 39%. (see crosstabs) In our last two polls, Menendez, an appointed incumbent, held a six-point lead.

To reflect the reversal, we are now revising our assessment of the contest from "Leans Democrat" to "Toss-Up" in our Senate Balance of Power ratings. Menendez thus becomes the only Senate Democrat not favored to win re-election. Three Republican incumbents (DeWine, Burns, Chafee) find themselves in Toss-Up races. Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum’s (R) race is ranked as Leans Democrat.

The new numbers in the Garden State represent a dramatic shift from the last two polls, but the contest has been close all year. Neither candidate has been able to move above the low-40s in terms of voter support.

Kean has a famous name, but New Jersey leans Democrat. The candidates have been swapping charges of corruption and ethical conduct, and it may be that the incumbent is getting the worst of it. Kean has been slamming Menendez hard about rent he collected for several years from a nonprofit agency for which he helped get federal funding.

Menendez now attracts just 70% of Democrats (down from 77% in June, whereas Kean's support from the GOP base is now at 85%. Twelve percent (12%) of Democrats are "not sure" who to support. That's a pretty wobbly base as the race enters the home stretch.

Meanwhile, Kean enjoys a clear advantage not only with Republicans and conservatives but also with unaffiliated voters (43% to 29%) and moderates (52% to 33%).

Kean's "very favorable" number (14%) is twice as high as his "very unfavorable" (7%). The reverse is true for Menendez whose numbers are 16% "very unfavorable" and 9% "very favorable."

Forty-one percent (41%) of all voters see Menendez as politically liberal while 33% say he’s a moderate. Twenty-one percent (21%) don’t know enough to have an opinion. That’s high for an incumbent, but Menendez was appointed by Governor Corzine (D) and has held office for less than a year.

A plurality (42%) see the Republican challenger as politically moderate. Thirty-two percent (32%) say he’s a conservative and 19% are not sure.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members Only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2006 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election. We update the President's Job Approval Ratings daily and are polling competitive Senate and Governor's races at least once a month in 2006.

Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

During Election 2004, RasmussenReports.com was also the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 28, 2006. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. (see Methodology)

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