The Granite State Poll: Bass Slips in NH 2nd District, Bradley Strong (Bass +10, Bradley +19)

University of New Hampshire ^ | 27 September 2006 | Andrew E Smith

[okstate]

DURHAM, NH – Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley holds a solid lead over newcomer Carol Shea-Porter in the race for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District. Charlie Bass is facing a tougher fight with his Democratic challenger Paul Hodes in the 2nd Congressional District.

These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV, Manchester. Five hundred fifteen (515) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between September 15 and September 24, 2006. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.3 percent. Two hundred sixty-six (266) respondents lived in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District (margin of sampling error = +/-6.1%) and 249 lived in the 2nd District (margin of sampling error = +/-6.2%).

NH 1st District

In New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley is facing Carol Shea-Porter, a political newcomer from Rochester who pulled off an upset win in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. Bradley remains a popular Congressman -- 49 percent of 1st District residents have a favorable opinion of Bradley, only 18 percent have an unfavorable opinion, 16 percent are neutral and 17 percent don’t know enough about him to say. Bradley’s net favorability rating in the 1st District, the percentage who have a favorable opinion of him minus the percentage who have an unfavorable opinion, is a strong +31 percent and has changed little since he was elected.

Carol Shea-Porter is somewhat better known to 1st District residents than she was before her primary victory, but remains largely an unknown candidate. Currently, 16 percent of 1st District adults have a favorable opinion of Shea-Porter, 5 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her, 14 percent are neutral, and 65 percent say they don’t know enough about her to say. Shea- Porter’s net favorability rating is +11 percent, up from +7 percent in July.

When likely voters in the 1st District are asked who they plan to vote for in November, Bradley still holds a comfortable lead over Shea-Porter. When Bradley is matched with Shea-Porter, 52 percent of likely 1st District voters say they will vote for Bradley, 33 percent say they will vote for Shea-Porter, and 15 percent are undecided. Bradley holds considerable advantages over Shea-Porter in both name recognition and funding and will be difficult to upset in November.

NH 2nd District

In the 2nd District, Republican incumbent Charlie Bass has a re-match of his 2004 race with Concord Attorney Paul Hodes. In 2004, Bass beat Hodes 59% to 38%. Both Al Gore and John Kerry won the 2nd District and Democrats have long sought to unseat Bass since he was first elected in 1994. Bass remains popular with residents of the 2nd District, but his popularity has dropped recently -- 48 percent have a favorable opinion of him, 27 percent have an unfavorable opinion, 12 percent are neutral and 13 percent don’t know enough about him to say. Bass’ net favorability rating in the 2nd District is a now a modest +21 percent, down from +40 percent in July.

Paul Hodes has been campaigning hard and it appears that he has damaged Bass somewhat. But despite running in 2004, Hodes is still largely unknown to most 2nd District residents – 11 percent say they have a favorable opinion of Hodes, 6 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, 17 percent are neutral, and 66 percent say they know too little about him to say. Hodes’ net favorability rating is +5 percent.

When likely voters in the 2nd District are asked who they plan to vote for in November, Bass holds a modest lead over Hodes. Currently, 46 percent of likely voters say they will vote for Bass, 36 percent say they will vote for Hodes, and 17 percent are undecided. In the April, 2006 Granite State Poll, Bass looked to be in a bit of trouble, holding a narrow 7 percentage point lead over Hodes. But this seems to have been largely due to Granite Staters perceptions of President Bush, whose job approval rating was only 30 percent in April. Bush approval ratings have improved since then, benefiting Republican candidates.

[okstate]

Not much to say here. Despite the headline, BOTH candidates are in good shape.

[ConservativeGreek]

BOTH candidates are in good shape.

Thanks for posting.

[Past Your Eyes]

I worked against Bass in the primary because he's a spineless RINO, "pro-choice" and opposed to drilling in ANWR. But, as usual, I'll hold my nose and vote for the little weasel because he is certainly preferable to the dirt bag Democrat (sorry for the redundancy).