Hugo Chavez Alienates a Formerly Friendly Chile -- Inside Story from Chile (Translation)

El Mercurio ( Santiago, Chile ) ^ | August 24, 2006 | Sergio Espinosa V. ( translated by self )

[StJacques]

Though this topic may seem to be somewhat removed from our current focus of events, I am posting this translation because I believe it does a lot to explain the aftermath of Hugo Chavez's outrageous performance before the UN last week and, to a significant degree, shows that his popularity in Latin America is definitely on the wane and that his foreign policy is fast becoming a disaster for Venezuela. Please not what a leading Christian Democrat in Chile -- remember that they are part of Bachelet's Center/Left coalition -- said about Chavez at the UN: "as much as Chavez's speech in the UN the critical comments of the ambassador have made it very difficult to continue thinking that we can vote for Venezuela."

Yesterday evening I tuned in Univision's late-night news to see their reporting of the Venezuelan diplomat's "harassment" in New York City and I noticed that immediately after their piece on it, they followed with a report that Chile had announced that they would abstain from voting for the election of the second Latin American delegate to the UN Security Council in October. They also mentioned that this was because of the Chilean charge that the Venezuelan ambassador had interfered in Chile's internal affairs. So I went to the El Mercurio web site and found the above article.

It is my guess that there are not too many among us who have kept up with Hugo Chavez and the threat he represents to American interests in Latin America, but I am clearly of the opinion that things have not been going his way over the past year. In November of 2005 Mexico expelled then Venezuelan Ambassador Vladimir Villegas for interfering in Mexican politics, which was accompanied by the severance of formal diplomatic relations with Venezuela, and it does not appear they will be restored any time soon. Venezuela has also angered Brazil, whose leftist President Lula they had supported, because of Chavez's vocalized approval of Bolivian President Evo Morales's decision to nationalize Bolivia's oil and gas resources, which will hurt Brazil's Petrobras oil company more than anyone else. Morales himself is now facing serious domestic opposition as his popularity declines in the wake of his MAS party's attempt to ram through a simple majority vote rule in an assembly he has summoned to rewrite Bolivia's constitution. Perhaps as a consequence of this, Morales has decided to recognize the election of Felipe Calderon as President of Mexico; something Chavez has worked to undermine recently, and which he refuses to do himself. There are also Chavez's very sour relations with Colombia, who are openly accusing him of supporting the FARC guerrillas in their country, an issue on which Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru have all spoken publicly in favor of Colombia. And now Chavez is angering Chile, whose President Michelle Bachelet has put together a leftist coalition government that includes the center/left Christian Democrats, who the Venezuelans absolutely hate. It's not going well for Chavez at all in Latin America.

Though the seating of the non-permanent members of the UN Security Council may not be a big issue to those of us here in the U.S., trust me when I tell you that it is a very big deal in Latin America. And if Venezuela loses out to lowly and backwards Guatemala it will be a major loss of face for Chavez. I will keep an eye on this.

As a final comment, I want to say that I have been asking myself whether the New York airport incident yesterday may have been deliberately provoked by the Venezuelan Ambassador to create a sideshow necessary to deflect attention in Latin America away from the Chilean story. I obviously have no way of knowing whether this is so, but it would not surprise me to learn that Chavez deliberately engineered the incident.

[StJacques]

ping

[MikeA]

This fat mental case's moment in the sun is quickly coming to an end. His military will probably overthrow him some time in the near future.

[roses of sharon]

Thank you for this info, much more interesting and important than our former President embarrassing himself and the US again.

I was hoping to hear more news from the Venezuelan people, do you know how they reacted, generally?

[1rudeboy]

Interesting, and a good analysis also.

[Republican Red]

I figured Hugo was playing to the base and solidified his support for the Security Council with his speech.

Chile was a stated vote for Venezuela.

[marron]

"The position of the Christian Democrats towards Chavez is the same that they had towards President Allende. This attitude does not surprise me, the Christian Democrats were themselves opposed to Allende's socialist, progressive, and renewing project, and they are resisting the same project of President Chavez.

Something to be proud of, in retrospect.

So the question is, now, who is Venezuela's Pinochet.

[StJacques]

"This fat mental case's moment in the sun is quickly coming to an end. His military will probably overthrow him some time in the near future."

There is a national election campaign underway in Venezuela right now and by all accounts the opposition candidate Manuel Rosales has been picking up steam, though Chavez leads in one recent poll quoted on Univsion by about 55% to 34%. That might sound disheartening, but it has been just over a month since several opposition parties came together to back Rosales, who then had only 19% support. That's a dramatic increase in his support with over two months of campaigning ahead. I still predict Chavez will win, but I am beginning to believe that the evidence of an unfair electoral campaign will become so evident before the rest of the world that Chavez's credibility will be significantly undermined.

If you're waiting to see what the Venezuelan military might do, keep an eye on those elections.

[StJacques]

". . . I was hoping to hear more news from the Venezuelan people, do you know how they reacted, generally?"

Univision showed a mixed reaction, though the opposition candidate Rosario took advantage of Chavez's statement about Bush being "the devil" to say that (I'm paraphrasing) "Chavez is talking about the devil while I'm talking about God and what God demands that we do for the people of Venezuela."

Please see my #8 to MikeA for a little more on this.

[sasha123]

Great article. It sounds like Chavez is not very popular in his own continent anymore. I guess he's looking for a slap on the back elsewhere.

[StJacques]

I wrote: . . . though the opposition candidate Rosario . . .

That should have read: . . . though the opposition candidate Rosales . . .

Sorry, my bad.

[Verginius Rufus]

There was someone from Colombia (the President?) being interviewed on TV the other day (Neil Cavuto's program IIRC)...he made it sound like the seat had been promised to Guatemala some time ago, but that Chavez suddenly decided he wanted it...Colombia would honor its original commitment to vote for Guatemala.

[Huevos Rancheros]

Chile would never support Chavez. Chavez was openly instigating war with Peru and Ecuador against Chile until the recent elections, when Chavez' puppet lost the Peruvian presidential election (humala).

[aft_lizard]

Sounds like America just needs to do a wait and see down there nd things will begin to work themselves out "naturally".

[T Lady]

I was hoping to hear more news from the Venezuelan people, do you know how they reacted, generally?


You probably won't, given the way Chavez has been running the country, like a mini Fidel Castro. And also bear in mind the way the MSM tends to bury such things, especially if it's even remotely favorable to President Bush.

[roses of sharon]

Ah, yes, how could I forget, keeping Americans uninformed is the MSM's primary goal.

[T Lady]

'Nuff said!

[Caipirabob]

I really appreciate these posts. Thanks!

[BunnySlippers]

If one reads over the news from both Venezuela ... and Bolivia you can see that things are not rosy in either country. Much strife ... and opposition.

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

Chavez was openly instigating war with Peru and Ecuador against Chile

I didn't think that even Chavez was that stupid. Aside from being a natural fortress the Chilean military is the best in South America.