Republican Kyl leads Democrat Pederson by 5 for AZ Senate seat (Survey USA)

Survey USA ^ | 19 September 2006 | Survey USA

[okstate]

Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10280

Geography Surveyed: Arizona
Data Collected: 09/16/2006 - 09/18/2006
Release Date: 09/19/2006 1:50 PM ET
Sponsor: KPNX-TV Phoenix

Democrat Napolitano Well Positioned for Re-Election as AZ Governor: In an election for Governor of Arizona today, 9/19/06, incumbent Democrat Janet Napolitano defeats Republican challenger Len Munsil, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KPNX-TV Phoenix. Today, 7 weeks to the 11/7/06 election, Napolitano leads by 16 points, 56% to 40%. Napolitano is up by 27 points among women and by 5 points among men. 91% of Democrats and 70% of Independents support Napolitano. 23% of Republicans cross over to vote for the Democrat. Munsil leads 3:1 among Arizona's Conservatives, who make up 35% of the electorate. But Napolitano's 50-point lead among Moderates and 69-point lead among Liberals is too much for Munsil to overcome. Napolitano is up by 19 points in Metro Phoenix, by 12 points in the Tucson area, and by 10 points in the rest of AZ. Munsil does best among the least educated voters. Napolitano does best among the most educated voters.

Republican Kyl 5 Atop Democrat Pederson For AZ Senate Seat: In an election for U.S. Senator in Arizona today, 9/19/06, incumbent Republican Jon Kyl edges Democrat challenger Jim Pederson, 48% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KPNX-TV Phoenix. Kyl gets 81% of Republican votes. Pederson gets 79% of Democrat votes. Independents break 5:3 for Pederson. Kyl leads by 13 points among White voters. Pederson leads by 16 points among Hispanic voters, who make up 16% of the Arizona electorate in SurveyUSA's turnout model. Pederson leads by 2 points in the Metro Phoenix area. Kyl leads by 16 points in the Tucson area and by 18 points in the rest of AZ. Of those who approve of President Bush's performance in office, 83% prefer Kyl. Of those who disapprove of President Bush's performance, 70% pick Pedersen. President Bush's job approval among likely voters in Arizona is 44%. Kyl was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1994. A Democrat pick-up here would greatly improve the Democrats' chances of retaking control of the U.S. Senate next year.

Filtering: 900 Arizona adults were interviewed 9/16/06 - 9/18/06. Of them, 701 were registered to vote. Of them, 472 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters. SurveyUSA's previous 2006 polling on the Arizona Senate contest, released 07/17/06, was of Registered Voters.

[okstate]

This poll is probably an outlier. The MOE is about 5 percent either direction, which means Kyl could lead by as much as 15 and the poll would still be "valid". I think the real measure of the race right now is one span of the margin of error away from this result, which gives Kyl a 10 point lead.

AZ Trendlines:

09-18 Survey USA ........... Kyl +5
08-29 Arizona St. Univ. .... Kyl +10
08-24 Rasmussen ............. Kyl +17

[okstate]

Partisan breakdown of the poll is 44 percent GOP, 33 percent Dem, 21 percent Ind. Seems pretty accurate, actually.

[okstate]

Survey USA says Kyl is only up five in Arizona. Ping.

[DemforBush]

Fill me in, folks. Is Kyl a conservative or a RINO?

[bnelson44]

Registered Voters: Dem 34.6% | Rep 39.9% | Other 25.5%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/az/arizona_senate_race-35.html

[NaughtiusMaximus]

The Arizona Republic will publish its slate and the Arizona voters will march out of Seizure World to the polls in one robotic mass and vote it. Ignore the polls.

[okstate]

Kyl is an excellent conservative Senator, to my knowledge.

Certainly no DeWine, Specter, or Chafee.

[nj26]

Kyl is a conservative.

And, fortunately, he also hasn't been sticking his foot in his mouth like several other Republican incumbents.

He will win this race. No problem.

[bnelson44]

He is a pro-Bush Republican

[okstate]

Oversampled Republicans in the poll?

[bnelson44]

Since when do Republicans follow the rag?

[bnelson44]

Looks like it, or assumed independents will vote republican. My guess is independents in this state will tend to vote for Kyl when push comes to shove.

[kaktuskid]

This is a BS poll produced for Gannett, owner of the AZ Republic and channel 12...a left leaning, abysmal fish-wrapper that is losing circulation. Any one that believes that Bankruptcy-boy Pederson can be leading in Phoenix and behind in liberal Tucson is a fool.

[msnimje]

Senator Kyl is + 11% on the Real Clear Politics AVERAGE of all polls.

[ncountylee]

199 of sample are not even registered voters. Useless poll.

[okstate]

"This is a BS poll produced for Gannett, owner of the AZ Republic and channel 12"

I assure you that Survey USA does not cook their results for their clients. But like I said, it may just be a bad sample at the other end of the margin of error.

[okstate]

Did you not read the thread? The topline results are based ONLY on the LIKELY VOTERS portion of the poll.

[ConservativeStatement]

http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Jon_Kyl.htm

[kaktuskid]

Plus polling done on a weekend is inaccurate...remember the weekend polls during the presidential elections.

[okstate]

The last polls before the Presidential election were done over the weekend and all predicted the correct result except for Marist College, Zogby, and FOX News